Week 13 Matchups

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0:00 :: Browns // Titans
10:35 :: Raiders // Jets
18:54 :: Jaguars // Vikings
27:22 :: Bengals // Dolphins
35:29 :: Colts // Texans
45:18 :: Lions // Bears
53:26 :: Saints // Falcons
64:05 :: Giants // Seahawks
73:07 :: Rams // Cards
80:50 :: Patriots // Chargers
89:47 :: Eagles // Packers

Week 12 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Wednesday, Dec 2nd 3:40pm Eastern

Ravens (
15.5) at

Steelers (
26)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

UPDATED :: 12/1 @ 7.30 PM ET from Xandamere

JM Update Below

Wow has this game environment changed. It looks like the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Willie Snead on offense at the very least (Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are not allowed on the flight to Pittsburgh today, but they're eligible to come off the Covid list on Wednesday with a negative test, so they could possibly drive themselves there or something and get tested...I guess. It's unlikely but possible). This means Robert Griffin III will be back on the NFL . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
25) at

Titans (
29)

Over/Under 54.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Titans like to run the ball, and this game sets up well for them to be able to do soThe Browns like to run the ball even more than the Titans, and they should be able to keep this game close enough to be able to do soThe Titans are the slightly better team in a handful of areas, which sets them up to "control this game, but not necessarily run away with it"There are elements to pay attention to for DFS, but nothing truly pops off the page

How Tennessee Will . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
27.75) at

Jets (
20.25)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The matchup sets up better for the Raiders to pass, but we know they'll aim to keep the ball on the ground for as long as game flow allowsThe game environment (and personnel) sets up better for the Jets to pass...but Adam Gase is their head coach, which means run-heavy remains the befuddling name of the gameThe Raiders may not pull away immediately in this one, but they should very much be expected to control this gameIt's not the prettiest week for DFS, which opens a few spots to consider . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20.5) at

Vikings (
30.5)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Vikings are set up well in this spot to win the way they want to winThe Jags might think they are set up well in this spot as well, with Mike Glennon under centerThis game should eventually see the Vikings pulling away and leaning even more heavily on the run as the Jags begin to tilt toward the passThis game is not a fantasy wasteland, which is apparently saying a lot on this slate

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The trend continues on this slate, as this is our third game in . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
16.5) at

Dolphins (
26.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Cincinnati is treading water here, just trying to gasp for airMiami is likely to control this game with their defense from the start, meaning their offense will be able to attack in any way they choose (which, as we’ll discuss below, depends largely on healthy offensive personnel)There are some intricacies to this game that are going to trip up a lot of people this week

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Not much changed regarding plan of attack for the Bengals in Week 12 with Brandon Allen at quarterback, as they were . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
26.5) at

Texans (
23.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Indy will try to win this game the same way they always do: by spreading the ball around, and by being adaptableHouston will be without Will Fuller (and Randall Cobb) in this one; we should still expect them to lean on Deshaun Watson to keep their hopes afloatThis is one of the better "game environments" on the slateEven with the Colts spreading things around and the Texans playing their first game without Fuller, there are some pieces I'll be keeping in mind from this game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

I would . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
20.5) at

Bears (
23.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Detroit now playing under interim head coach Darrell Bevell after the firing of Matt PatriciaHow Chicago wants to try to win and how they’ve been forced to try to win have largely been separate ideas this season; this game sets up well for them to try to win how they want to try to winNot much to love from this game save one player

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Therein lies the question this week. The lions fired head coach Matt Patricia following their Thanksgiving Day dismantling at the hands of the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
24.5) at

Falcons (
21.5)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Falcons have faced the second fewest rushes against and sixth most passes againstProbable that Julio Jones makes it back this week after missing last week’s win over the RaidersMatt Ryan has played only four games with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley healthy this season, averaging 22.59 fantasy points in those weeks compared to 17.07 fantasy points per game in the other seven games, and surpassing 300 pass yards in three of four with both on the field compared to one of seven with one outMichael Thomas holds a 46.2 . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:05pm Eastern

Giants (
18.5) at

Hawks (
29.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Seattle has slowed down the pass play rate and the early-down aggression as the season has moved alongThe Seattle defense has also improved, and this week they are taking on Colt McCoySeattle plays a high percentage of their games fairly closeNothing pops in this game, but this isn't a wasteland, either

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

Through the first seven weeks of the season (the Seahawks’ first six games), only one team was throwing the ball at a higher rate on early downs with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:05pm Eastern

Rams (
25.5) at

Cards (
23)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two of the top six offenses in situation-neutral pace of play (first and sixth)Both teams are bottom half of the league in pass rate with the score within seven pointsBoth defenses are top half of the league in points allowed per gameAll of that comes together to form a game scenario that is likely to underwhelm, with no clear avenue for individual points to pile up; that said, there is a very real chance this game turns into a back and forth affair with heavy volume for each team, so the way . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:25pm Eastern

Patriots (
22.5) at

Chargers (
24.5)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Patriots have created ugly game environments this season :: leaning run-heavy when they have the ball, and forcing opponents to play slowly and tilt run-heavy as wellThis game should stay relatively close throughout, but most paths don't have it pushing into high-scoring territoryAs with most spots on this strange slate: there are some "take it or leave it" pieces here, with nothing to truly love

How New England Will Try To Win ::

Nine teams have a higher Vegas-implied team total than the Chargers this week, and 13 teams have . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
21) at

Packers (
29)

Over/Under 50.0

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Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Clear avenues of least resistance for each team (Packers through the air and Eagles on the ground and through passes to the backfield); the Packers are likely to take advantage in this area, the Eagles are an unknownPackers are likely to stomp the Eagles in time of possessionThe tributary in this one is one of the most intriguing of the season

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Every week it seems like the Eagles have two separate offensive game plans, one for the first quarter with heavy Miles Sanders involvement and one for the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 8:20pm Eastern

Broncos (
19.25) at

Chiefs (
32.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
The Broncos visiting the Chiefs is not exactly the exciting Sunday night football matchup I was hoping for, but it’s ok, there’s still money to be made in Showdown slates! The Chiefs are a massive 13.5 point favorite in this 50.5 total game (meaning the poor Broncos are projected to score just 18.25 points while the Chiefs are at 31.25), Vegas is expecting a slaughter, and with a shaky Denver passing game against an elite Kansas City pass defense, that’s the most likely outcome...but there are still ways . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 7th 5:00pm Eastern

WFT (
18.75) at

Steelers (
24.75)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
We get some extra Showdowns this week due to Covid rescheduling, and the first on Monday has the Washington Football Team visiting the Steelers. The game has a 43.5 total with the Steelers favored by 6.5; both teams boast strong defenses and this one is expected to be a low-scoring slog.
On the Pittsburgh side, James Conner will miss another game on the Covid list, which means Benny Snell will handle feature back duties. Last week Snell played 71% of the snaps to 19% for Anthony McFarland and seeing 20 total opportunities (including . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 7th 8:15pm Eastern

Bills (
23) at

49ers (
25)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Monday football comes to a close with Buffalo visiting San Francisco for a 47 game total with the home team favored by a point. Despite all of the injuries, San Francisco has held their own this year, despite being in a tough division. That has largely been driven by their defense, which is 9th in overall DVOA (pretty close to even vs. the run and the pass). The Bills started the season on a ridiculous offensive tear, stumbled through Weeks 5-8, but then put up 44, 30, and 27 points in their last three games . . .

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Kickoff Tuesday, Dec 8th 8:05pm Eastern

Cowboys (
18.5) at

Ravens (
27)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 13 wraps up with an odd Tuesday night game as Dallas visits Baltimore for a 45 total game in which Baltimore is favored by a whopping 8.5 points. Unsurprisingly, Dallas’ Andy Dalton-powered offense is not expected to do much against the elite Ravens D. The Ravens are also getting Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram back from the Covid list, though Mark Andrews and Willie Snead remain out.
On the Baltimore side, the running game that has been such a source of frustration seemed to clear up in Week 11, with . . .

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