KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: I won’t bury the lede. The Kansas City Chiefs will win their 10th consecutive division title. However, their streak of seven AFC conference games will end. The Chiefs are a team at a crossroads. They, along with their QB, Patrick Mahomes, are facing a similar path that the New England Patriots faced two decades earlier.
The Patriots won three Super Bowls in four seasons, establishing themselves as a dynasty. But after that, they went on a decade-long hiatus before winning their fourth title. Ultimately, they went to nine Super Bowls, winning six of them.
The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs have now won five games, including three. However, Mahomes has plenty of time to go and win more Super Bowls. He will be 30 in a month, and the question remains as to whether he wants to be as maniacal as Tom Brady was, playing into his 40s.
The head coach is also a factor. Andy Reid is now 67 years old, and let’s face it…not a physical specimen. It remains to be seen how many coaching years he has left. And lastly, maintaining greatness is difficult; the reality of new players and roster turnover is a real challenge. Brady had Rob Gronkowski, until he didn’t. Mahomes still has Travis Kelce, who is now 35 years old, and a movie “star”. It remains to be seen how Mahomes will perform without Reid and Kelce in a few years.
Although the team won 15 games and made it to the Super Bowl, it was somewhat of a mirage. They only outscored their opponents by 3.4 points. They scored five more total touchdowns than their opponents, and outgained them by only 8 total yards per game. There is a very good chance that their stats will be better this year, and they will end up with a worse record. Las Vegas agrees, only putting their o/u at 11.5 wins. They may win 12 games, but I can see them winning only 10 or 11. One thing is certain: they aren’t getting the bye this year.
DENVER BRONCOS: If I were to ask you which AFC West QB threw the most TD passes, you’d probably say Patrick Mahomes, or you may say Justin Herbert and his big arm. You’d be wrong; it was rookie QB Bo Nix, who threw 29 bombs. The Broncos offense scored the most pts in the division, while gaining the most yards.
They have added RB JK Dobbins and TE Evan Engram to their already potent offense. Engram should add a huge element and help Nix’s development in his second year. They also added rookie RB RJ Harvey, who is already slated as the team’s RB1.
Last year, they finished the season 10-7, with a playoff berth. Vegas sees some regression, placing the o/u at 9.5 wins. This is definitely an above-.500 team, but taking that next step and getting into the rarefied air of 11 or 12 wins — or higher —is still a year or two away.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Maybe the hottest or hot takes, but I like the Raiders this season. They have added a real head coach in Pete Carroll. And they now have a real QB, in Geno Smith. They still have all-world TE Brock Bowers, and the best on the defensive side of the ball in Maxx Crosby. And they added the best RB on the board, in Ashton Jeanty. They snagged Raheem Mostert from the Dolphins to create a dynamic tandem backfield. Although their WRs are still underwhelming, with Jacobi Meyers as their WR1, they have enough to score more than the 18.2 points per game.
They have completely revamped their defense, adding six new starters. It usually takes a while for a unit to gel, but they will surely improve upon their 2024 squad, which gave up 25.5 points per game. Ultimately, their defense wasn’t the biggest cause of concern last season; their turnovers were. For the season, they lost a whopping 13 fumbles and had 16 overall turnovers.
Vegas believes that Vegas will improve, setting their o/u at 6.5 wins. I think this team will easily surpass that mark, with the potential to go over .500 and make a run at the playoffs.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: This division boasts the best head coaches from top to bottom. With Andy Reid in Kansas City, Pete Carroll in Vegas, Sean Payton in Denver, and Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers. In his first year, he led the Chargers to a playoff berth and a second-place finish, with 11 wins.
And he managed to get an amazingly efficient season out of his QB, Justin Herbert. Herbert is such an enigma. He has so much talent, yet his career has been underwhelming. He’s entering his sixth season, but is still only 27 years old. To put that in perspective, second-year QB Jayden Daniels will be 25 years old in December. Herbert is still a young QB.
In 504 passing attempts, he only threw three interceptions. It was the first time in his career that he had a QB rating of over 100 for a season. He accomplished more with less. His yards per attempt and catch were both the highest in his career. And he rushed for 306 yds, which was the most in his career.
This analysis primarily focuses on Herbert’s performance, as his success may be more crucial to the team’s success than that of any other player in the league. There was another stat last year that was a career high for Herbert: sacks. He was sacked 41 times. Even with those sacks, Herbert managed to lead the team to an 11-6 record.
HC Harbaugh addressed the team’s need to protect Herbert, adding RG Mekhi Becton, formerly of the world champion Eagles. Aside from Bectin, the team also supplemented their offensive weapons. They re-tooled their backfield by signing Najee Harris and drafting Omerion Hampton in the first round. They also grabbed WR Tre Harris in the second round, and are reuniting WR Keenan Allen with Herbert.
With all of these additions, it is interesting that Vegas has its o/u set at 9.5. This seems like an easy over. The only reason it isn’t is that from top to bottom, this is the best division in football. Each of these teams faces off against the others twice a year, which means that they each have six total games against the other three teams within the division. None of these teams stands to run the table and go 5-1. Realistically, they will all be 4-2 or 3-3 in those six games. The NFL strives for parity, and the AFC West has it.
It would not surprise me if all four teams are above 500, with no worse than a 9-8 record, and all four making a huge push towards the postseason. It’s rare for all four teams from a division to make the playoffs; last year, this division was represented by only three teams. This season, the AFC West will again produce at least three playoff teams.
