The comparison most commonly made for Patriots QB Drake Maye is to Josh Allen. Now, nobody in their right mind has said that Maye will ever equal or surpass Allen. But in terms of play style, Allen is the name that is mentioned. Allen not only uses his cannon of an arm but also his legs to win games.
In his second season at North Carolina, Maye rushed for 698 yards in 14 games. The next season, he rushed for 449 yds in 12 games. Last season, as a rookie with the Pats, Maye rushed for 421 yds in 13 games. By any definition, Maye is a running QB.
This season, Las Vegas has set Maye’s o/u at 425.5 rushing yds. Based on his last two seasons at North Carolina and his rookie season in New England, it can be argued that the over is the smart bet. He is the clear opening day starter this season, and barring injury, will be the starter for all 17 games. If he maintains his average from last season, he’ll blow 425.5 yds out of the water.
There is one difference, though: a new regime has taken hold in Foxboro, led by HC Mike Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels. At the very first practice of training camp this week, the coaches’ mindset was made clear to Maye. They do not want him to be a running QB, and they don’t want him to be a run-first QB.
On a play, Maye went through his first, second, and third progressions, settling on a target, and releasing the ball. In the background, Vrabel could be heard yelling praise at the second-year QB. “Pass, pass, pass; good job”. The implication was clear…look to pass the ball at all costs, go through your progressions, and only in the case of a broken play, use your legs.
It can be argued that having this approach with Maye will take away, or at least neutralize one of his best traits…but this is the way Vrabel wants to run (no pun intended), his offense. And why not? His last coaching job featured RB Derrick Henry, who got the lion’s share of yardage on the ground. He should realize that he does not have anyone on the same level as Henry on this team. But for now, he wants his running backs to gain yards on the ground, and his quarterback to stay in the pocket and throw the ball. He wants a game manager. He wants another Ryan Tannehill, who never gained 300 rushing yards under Vrabel.
There is another reason to like the under. Although Maye is the day 1 starter and will be throughout the year, it’s not a lock that he’ll stay healthy for the entire year. Now, that can be said of every QB in the NFL. Maye did leave multiple games last season to injuries, mainly due to a lousy O-line. The Pats did take “LT” Will Campbell with the fourth pick in this year’s draft, but there is serious debate whether he’ll be able to protect Maye’s blind side. Campbell has alarmingly short arms for a left tackle, and many feel he’s better suited to be a guard in the pros. If that’s the case, it’s a wasted pick at no.4, and puts Maye at risk this season.
For these reasons, going under 425.5 rushing yards is the way to go.
