2025 Fantasy Football: Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills offense in 2024 was stellar, mostly due to MVP QB, Josh Allen. Buffalo ranked 1st in sacks per pass attempt, 2nd in the red zone, 2nd in points per game, 3rd in interception rate, 6th in pass yards per play, 7th in goal-to-go, 7th on 3rd down percentage, and 11th in rush yards per play.  Allen didn’t have a lot of receiving options due to a lack of depth and untimely injuries.

QB:  Josh Allen

Since his rookie season in 2018, Allen has gone on to start 99 out of the last 100 regular-season games.  He remained healthy despite 6-straight seasons with 100+ carries.  Allen rushed for 6-9 TDs in each of his first 5 NFL seasons before ramping those up to 15 rushing TDs in 2023 and 12 in 2025.

Allen cut his INTs down from 18 in 2023 to only 6 in 2024.  Despite the drastic changes in the number of interceptions, his TD passes only dipped by 1 year-over-year.  Of the 6 INTs he threw last year, 5 came during a 4-game stretch in the middle of the season in which Amari Cooper missed 2 games, Keon Coleman missed 2 games, Dalton Kincaid missed a game, and Curtis Samuel was out a game.      

RB:  James Cook

Cook’s carries dropped from 237 in 2023 to 207 in 2024, but his rushing TDs went up from 2 in each of his first 2 NFL seasons to tied for the NFL lead with 16 last year.  His receiving role did take a hit as he caught 12 fewer passes (32) for almost 200 fewer yards (258) and 2 less receiving TDs (2), than his previous season.

RB:  Ray Davis

In his rookie season, Davis averaged a full yard less per carry than his backfield mate, Cook (4.9) at 3.9.  He did show better when he was provided more carries and was able to get a feel for the game.  Davis had 3 games with double-digit carries, and in those games he put up statlines of:  20 for 97 yards (4.9 ypc), 11 for 63 yards (5.7) with a TD and 15 for 64 yards (4.3).

Davis also hauled in 17 receptions on his 19 targets for 189 yards.  The 11.1 yards per reception was 3.0 yards more per catch than Cook on the year.  Davis also totaled more receiving TDs (3) than Cook (2) on half the targets. 

WR:  Keon Coleman

Jameson Williams led the NFL with 17.3 yards per reception among qualified receivers.  Players needed 40 receptions on the season to be listed among the qualified group.  Coleman totaled 29 receptions, falling 11 receptions short of the qualification.  However, his average per catch was almost 2 full yards more than Williams at 19.2 ypr.

Coleman didn’t play his natural role as a possession receiver last year.  Due to the lack of talent and depth at the position, he was asked to do more.  In his 2nd season, he should fall more into an intermediate role, increasing his efficiency from the 51% catch rate as a rookie.  

WR:  Khalil Shakir

Similar to Coleman, Shakir was asked to take on a different role.  After putting up 15.7 yards per reception in 2023 with a catch rate of 87%, he was targeted more than twice as much in 2024, despite playing 2 less games with 1 less start.  His catch rate fell to 76% and the average per catch was down almost 5 full yards at 10.8.

WR:  Josh Palmer

After 2 good years to start his career with the Chargers, Palmer has dealt with injuries and an upgrade in talent around him at the receiver position.  Palmer only missed 1 game from 2021-2022.  Over the last 2 seasons, he’s missed 9 games with a knee injury and multiple concussions.

The Chargers have invested a first or second-round pick in 3 straight NFL drafts on wide receivers.  The rookie contracts and talent, combined with Palmer’s injury history, kept them from re-signing him to a second contract.  If he can remain healthy, it’s a quality addition to the duo of Coleman and Shakir.

WR:  Elijah Moore / Curtis Samuel / Kristian Wilkerson / Laviska Shenault

Buffalo knows their window is open with how Allen played in 2024.  They looked to upgrade their receiver room, which was lacking last season.  In addition to Palmer’s signing, the Bills still have veteran Curtis Samuel to compete with the newly acquired veteran receivers of Moore, Wilkerson, and Shenault.  It’s a talented group to be competing for the 4th WR spot.

TE:  Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid struggled with a knee injury last season and missed 4 games on the year.  His catch rate dropped from his rookie season of 80.2% to an abysmal 58.7% last year.  He’s in line for a bounceback year and would have a more complete receiver core to pull attention away from him.

TE:  Dawson Knox

Knox was an afterthought last year.  The bulk of his production only came in games in which 1 or 2 of the few receiving options available missed the game, including 10/27 (Samuel), 11/10 (Coleman & Cooper), 11/17 (Coleman & Kincaid), and 12/1 (Coleman & Kincaid).

 

BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Keon Coleman

Coleman enters Year 2 with a full NFL offseason and upgraded receiving options around him.  He’ll be utilized to his strengths in his second NFL season and finish the year with a statline of 60 / 750 / 7.

BUST:  Josh Palmer

The injury bug continues to bite Palmer, even after the move to Buffalo.  He’s slated to be the #3 receiver for the Bills, but with the quartet of capable veteran receivers chomping at his heels, the missed time will knock his 2025 season off track and cost him a potential bounceback year.

The last 2 years he has put up 38-39 catches with 581-584 yards with 1-2 TDs.  He’ll fail to surpass any of those numbers this season.

SLEEPER:  Ray Davis

Where Ty Johnson can do less with more as a third-string running back, Davis needs touches to get the feel.  He ate into Cook’s rushing totals in his rookie season.  In 2025, he’ll take a bigger piece of the pie, averaging 10+ touches a game and take a bite out of Cook’s massive TD total as well.

Davis finishes the year with 170 carries / 700 rush yards / 6 rush TDs with 25 catches / 200+ receiving yards / 3 receiving TDS.

BOLD PREDICTION:  Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid will be back to form in 2025.  He’s averaged a pace of 97 targets for 17 games in a season over his first 2 years. In 2025, he’ll actually reach that number, not just average the pace for it.  In 2024, there were 5 or less tight ends to have more than 97 targets, 66 receptions and 726 receiving yards.  Four tight ends tied for 4th with 7 receiving TDs.

Kincaid will match or best all of those stats:  97+ targets / 66+ receptions / 726+ yards / 7+ TDs