Las Vegas brought in head coach Pete Carroll with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to turn around their offense after ranking dead last in the NFL in their run game, combined with being last in goal-to-go percent, as well as 30th on third downs, tied-28th in point per game, 27th in pass yards per play and 27th in red zone percentage.
Carroll brought in a QB that he’s familiar with in Geno Smith as well as changes at their top 2 running back spots and 3 rookie wide receivers to join the mix. The quality holdovers at the skill position players are Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker.
QB: Geno Smith
Smith had the best 2 years of his career under Carroll in Seattle. First was his stellar breakout season in 2022 where he threw 30 TDs / 11 INTs. Prior to that Smith had 34 TDs / 37 INTs for his career. The following year Smith’s stats dropped to 20 TDs / 9 INTs as his completion percent fell from 70% to 65% as well.
The 2023 season would be Carroll’s last as the Seahawks head coach and the wheels came off a bit for Smith without Carroll as the coach. Smith completed over 70% of his passes for 4,300 yards but threw 21 TDs / 15 INTs. Las Vegas is rolling the dice on the duo with Kelly in place to help bolster the odds in the gambling capital of the world.
RB: Ashton Jeanty
In 2023 Jeanty ran for 1,347 yards and 14 TDs. It was a strong season to be proud of. Last year he almost doubled all of it with 2,601 yards and 29 TDs, which is just ridiculous. In 2023 he also caught 43 passes for 569 yards and 5 more TDs.
Alexander Mattison led the Raiders with 420 rushing yards on 3.2 ypc in 2024. Jeanty drastically improves the unit. He looks to immediately get up field as he’s comfortable on the interior and only moves to lanes on the perimeter if nothing’s available. He doesn’t just run for the edges when it’s closed off inside, rather finds the next immediate open, quickly, and maximizes runs with vision and physicality.
RB: Raheem Mostert
Mostert is an exemplary complementary back that has been efficient with his runs. Unfortunately he’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He’s a back that can average 5 ypc and also find the end zone as seen with his 1,000 yards rushing and 18 TDs in Miami two years ago.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers received an uptick in volume last season, due to the lack of weapons in the offense. After Bowers, himself and Tucker, the next 2 highest volume receiving options on the year were Ameer Abdullah and Mattison.
Meyers will remain around his average over the last 4 seasons which included his last 2 in New England and first 2 in Las Vegas (77 / 876 / 5).
WR: Tre Tucker
Tucker was much more involved in his 2nd season. He was targeted 81 times in which he put up numbers of 47 / 539 / 3 with a 58% catch rate. Despite his yards per reception dropping from 17.4 as a rookie to 11.5 last year, his catch rate went up only 2%.
WR: Jack Bech
The new staff knew they needed to upgrade the receiver position so in the draft they took a receiver every other round (2nd, 4th & 6th). Bech was first when he was selected 58th overall and will contribute immediately as he has a high IQ in the way he attacks.
Bech shows his numbers quickly underneath, creates space with routes, fakes and sharp angles with an agenda. On deeper routes he’ll slow, get the DB on his back and then accelerate and extend towards the ball. He’ll attack the soft part of zones and looks to get moving after the catch immediately.
WR: Dont’e Thornton Jr.
Thornton Jr. is a long, fast target at 6’5 with 4.3 speed but he’s more of an occasional contributor to an offense rather than a go-to option. He’s best attacking deep with his long frame and speed that allows the QB to just throw it out there. Even if it’s unsuccessful it’ll keep defenses on their heels.
Thornton Jr. can also be deadly on diagonal routes when he catches on the run as he’s hard to catch with his momentum going away from defenders. Underneath he can contribute by being a big target that creates space on comeback routes and then assesses for YAC. He frames his hands poorly and will have unnecessary drops and against zone coverage he’ll keep running past the weak spot and close the window on himself.
TE: Brock Bowers
As a rookie Bowers led all tight ends in targets (153), receptions (112) and yards (1,194). There were only 2 players in the NFL with more receptions, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown but he tied for 9th among tight ends for TDs (5) with David Njoku, Noah Gray and Foster Moreau.
Bowers will still be the top option for the Raiders passing game in 2025 and he’ll repeat with similar numbers except in TDs in which he’ll boost it to 8, which would have tied for the 2nd most among TEs last year.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty will be one of the top running backs right out of the gate. Last year the older guys led the league with Saquon Barkley rushing for 2,000+ yards in 16 games and Derrick Henry surpassing 1,900 yards in 17 games. Bijan Robinson was 3rd with 1,456 yards rushing.
It was the 4th time since 2019 that Henry has rushed for 1,500+ yards in a season. During that span only 5 other players have done so (Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor & Dalvin Cook). Each back accomplishing the feat had between 12-18 rush TDs those years. Jeanty will join that group as the Raiders focus on the run game in 2025.
BUST: Tre Tucker
In 16 games as a rookie with only 1 start he had 6 games with 30+ receptions. Last year with 14 starts in 17 games of action he only managed 30+ yard receptions in 2 games. He was the third receiving option behind Bowers and Meyers. The lack of explosive plays should have been met with a jump in catch rate. He’ll finish no higher than the 5th most targeted player on the team in 2025.
SLEEPER: Jack Bech
Bech will step in right away and be the third receiving option behind Bowers and Meyers. Tucker will be competing more with Bech’s fellow rookie, Thornton Jr. for reps and targets than he will be with Bech. Bech gives Smith a receiver he can trust and build chemistry right away and along with Jeanty, alleviate some of the weight that Bowers and Meyers had to carry in the passing game in 2024.
BOLD PREDICTION: Ashton Jeanty
Only 5 rookie running backs have rushed for over 1,600 yards in a season. Only 2 have since Eric Dickerson did so in 1983 when he set the rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards that still stands. They were Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 (1,631) and Alfred Morris in 2012 (1,613). Jeanty will beat both of them in 2025 as he rushes for 1,650+ yards and 12+ TDs.
