Kansas City has been declining as a passing team since the departure of Tyreek Hill (2022), combined with the start of Travis Kelce’s decline as an elite option (2023). They were 1st in passing yards a game in 2020 and 2022 while being 5th and 1st those years in passing yards per play. In 2021 they ranked 4th (per game) and 11th (per play).
In 2023 they were 6th (per game) and 16th (per play). Last year, it fell even more to 14th (per game) and 22nd (per play). As great as Patrick Mahomes is, he still needs elite talent to reach that upper echelon that he was performing at between 2020-2022. He was also at the level in 2018 before a dip in stats similar to what we saw in 2023-2024. It’s not a coincidence that Hill missed 4 games in 2019.
QB: Patrick Mahomes
In the last 2 seasons, Mahomes has averaged 4,056 passing yards with 27 TDs / 13 INTs. The 3 years prior he averaged 4,943 passing yards with 39 TDs / 10 INTs. He had elite Kelce and Hill during 2020-2021 and even without Hill in 2022 he was still left with an elite Kelce.
He needed someone to step up and the losses of Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown early in 2024 put him behind the eight ball. It wasn’t until the addition of DeAndre Hopkins for the October 27th game that coincided with rookie Xavier Worthy’s growth that he finally had the capable talent to perform back closer to his ceiling.
Prior to the October 27th game, Mahomes had 6 TDs / 8 INTs in his first 6 games. From 10/27 on, he threw 20 TDs / 3 INTs over those last 10 games. Now, he gets Year 2 of Worthy, a returning Rice and Brown. It doesn’t hurt that Kansas City used their first-round pick on a left tackle for his blindside either.
RB: Kareem Hunt
Hunt re-joined the Chiefs in Week 4 of the 2024 season after Isiah Pacheo went down. Hunt filled the role as a volume back and ran for 5 TDs in his first 5 games back. When Pacheco returned the duo split the carries with neither being truly effective outside of Hunt recording 2 more rushing TDs in the last 2 games the pair played in the regular season.
In the playoffs, the Chiefs had Hunt take the bulk of the carries where he scored rushing TDs in each of the first 2 games, making it 4 straight games, including the regular season. As far as yards per carry on the season, Hunt came in at 3.6, falling below a 4.0 average for the third year in a row.
RB: Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco missed 10 games in 2024. Before and after the injury he struggled, averaging 3.7 ypc. That was down a full yard per carry compared to his average in the 2 previous seasons. In the 3 playoff games, he was relegated to Hunt’s backup. He didn’t record more than 5 carries in any game and averaged 2.8 ypc.
Pacheco will have an uphill climb in 2025 with Hunt returning, along with the addition of Elijah Mitchell and 7th-round rookie Brashard Smith. All of that while attempting to return to form that he showed over his first 2 seasons.
RB: Elijah Mitchell
Injuries have been a major issue for Mitchell. In 2021 he played in 11 games, 8 in which he rushed for 80+ yards and 5 of those were 100+ yard games. That season was the last time he’s had a 100-yard game though. He had one 80-yard game in 2022 and another in 2023.
Injuries kept Mitchell out of 6 games in 2021, 12 in 2022, 6 in 2023, and all 17 last year. Mitchell hopes getting out of San Francisco will provide newfound health and allows him to become the next Raheem Mostert. (Before breaking out with the Dolphins, Mostert spent his previous 5+ years with the 49ers showing flashes but dealing with injuries).
RB: Brashard Smith
Back in Pacheco’s rookie season of 2022, the first year Mahomes didn’t have Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs had a player named Jerick McKinnon who ran the triple-option as a QB in college before making the switch to running back. McKinnon, while far from a rookie at that point, had 70+ carries (291 yards & 1 TD) and 71 targets (56 / 512 / 9).
Smith spent most of his collegiate career as a receiver before switching to running back. McKinnon was 5’9 and timed 4.41. Smith is 5’10 and timed 4.39 (although 15 pounds lighter). Smith will fit into McKinnon’s role as a rookie.
WR: Rashee Rice
Rice went out in Week 4 last year with a knee injury after a strong start that saw him average 8 receptions for 96 yards with 2 TDs in the first 3 games. He hit the 100-yard mark twice in those first 3 games. JuJu Smith-Schuster had 1 game with 100+ yards (130) on the season and then only 101 receiving yards in his other 13 games played.
Rice’s worst performance of those first 3 games (75 yards) was only topped by another wide receiver three other times in 2024 with Hopkins having a 90-yard and 86-yard game and Worthy going for 79 yards in a game. He’s Kansas City’s top receiving option. Unfortunately, the Chiefs will most likely miss Rice for a few games again in 2025 as there should be a suspension headed his way due to a high-speed crash he was involved in.
WR: Xavier Worthy
Worthy was on an ascension towards the second part of his rookie season. In his first 9 games he put up 20 / 246 / 3 on a 47% catch rate with 9 carries for 37 yards and 2 TDs. His next 7 games saw a leap to 39 / 392 /3 with a much-improved catch rate of 71% with 11 carries for 67 yards and a TD.
WR: Marquise Brown
Brown played in 46 of his first 49 games in the league, all with the Ravens. His next 2 seasons with the Cardinals he missed 8 of 34 games. Then in his first year with the Chiefs in 2024, he missed the first 15 games before returning to put up 9 receptions for 91 yards on 15 targets.
He’s not going to sniff his career year of 2021 where he put up 91 / 1,008 / 6 on 146 targets as he’s likely to be the 4th-option with the Chiefs in 2024. He’s more in line for similar production to what he saw over his last 2 years with the Cardinals. 60 / 650 / 4 are the numbers he’ll hover around.
WR: Jalen Royals
If Brown struggles to regain form or suffers another injury, the rookie 4th-rounder, Royals will fill Justin Watson’s spot and compete with JuJu Smith-Schuster for reps behind the top duo of Rice and Worthy at receiver. He should also have an increased role if/when Rice faces suspension.
TE: Travis Kelce
Kelce is still a talented tight end but he’s past the stage in his career where he’s going to garner 145+ targets and put up 100 / 1,350 / 10. He spent 2014-2022 averaging 12.7 ypr. In 2023 that dropped to 10.6, followed by 8.5 last year.
Having Rice, Worthy and Brown should limit Kelce to a season closer to 90 / 800 / 5. A great year for most tight ends but sub-par for the elite Kelce years.
TE: Noah Gray
Gray had a great year in 2024. He stepped up his production with the top receiving options going down. The 40 / 437 / 5 stat line showed that he could be relied on more but it’s highly unlikely to repeat in 2024. He’ll finish 2025 slightly above his 2022 and 2023 seasons. 30 / 300 / 3 should all be reached or surpassed by Gray this year.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Xavier Worthy
Worthy will benefit from having Rice and Brown back in the fold for most of the year and not be forced to be the top option among receivers. He’ll be more comfortable and hit more big plays. Worthy goes over 1,000 receiving yards with 8 TDs on 75+ receptions.
BUST: Isiah Pacheco
The expectation will be for Pacheco to bounce back with the offseason to heal. It won’t be that simple. He’ll lose a bit of his combative mentality and not be the same back that we saw in his first 2 seasons. Hunt will take some of the volume workload with Mitchell mixing in to add playmaking ability and Smith having a receiving role out of the backfield planned.
SLEEPER: Brashard Smith
Smith pulls the Jose Canseco circa 1988 and joins the 40/40 club. Instead of 40 homers and 40 stolen bases, Smith will finish the year with 40 carries and 40 receptions with 5 total touchdowns to boot. The gadget plays will be back in Kansas City as Smith becomes the new Jerick McKinnon.
BOLD PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes gets back on par with his 2020-2022 run and hits 4,800 passing yards with 40 TD passes and a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has a role-specific receiver, a still-talented Kelce, and a receiving back with fresh and dangerous legs.
