Minnesota will have a new interior offensive line with the additions of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency from the Colts, combined with the first-round selection of Donovan Jackson in the draft.
In 2024, the Vikings’ offense ranked in the top 10 in passing yards, first downs, and points per game, despite being in the bottom third of the league in interception rate and sacks per pass attempt.
QB: J.J. McCarthy
While McCarthy is unproven at the NFL level, the Vikings worked wonders with Sam Darnold running the offense last season. Darnold completed 66% of his passes for 4,300 yards, 35 TDs / 12 INTs in 2024 (18/2 last 8 games). In his previous six seasons, he was a 60% passer with 63 touchdowns and 56 interceptions.
While it’s not apples-to-apples with Darnold having 6 years of NFL experience under his belt, the inexperienced McCarthy is in capable hands with head coach Kevin O’Connell setting him up for success with a quality offensive line, skilled backs and top-tier receiving options.
RB: Aaron Jones
Last year, Minnesota tried to force Jones as a 250+ carry back for the first time in his career. He put up 4.5 ypc, while still a good average, it was a career-low for Jones.
In his first six games, he had only two games with 15+ carries, yet he had four games with 90+ rush yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Over his last 11 games, he had 7 games with 15+ carries, yet only had 1 game with 90+ rush yards while seeing his average drop to 4.1 ypc.
RB: Jordan Mason
The Vikings didn’t have an adequate back to combine with Jones in 2024, forcing them to increase his reps. Mason demonstrated last season that he can handle a larger workload and thrive.
In his first 4 games of 2024 with the 49ers, Mason had 3 games of 100+ rush yards with a TD. During those games, he averaged 23 carries for 112 yards and 4.9 ypc. Over his first 7 games, he averaged 18 carries for 95 yards (5.2 ypc).
WR: Justin Jefferson
Last season, with Darnold at QB instead of Kirk Cousins, Jefferson didn’t see a falloff. He put up an extremely similar season to the one he had with Cousins in 2021, matching his career-high for receiving TDs (10) that he recorded that year. He did so on 13 fewer targets with only 5 fewer receptions and 83 fewer receiving yards.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise after seeing him average 8 receptions for 119 yards with 2 TDs in his last 4 starts of the 2023 season with Nick Mullens at QB. The switch to McCarthy won’t hurt Jefferson’s value. Jefferson did suffer a hamstring injury in camp and it may cost him some chemistry building time with his new QB. But by Week 1 I’d expect him to be on the field and the chemistry should come quickly for a receiver that produces no matter who’s under center.
WR: Jordan Addison
Addison played in 2 fewer games last season with 1 more start than his rookie year of 2023. Yet, his stats remained close. Last year he put up 63 / 875 / 9 following his previous campaign of 70 / 911 / 10. Although he didn’t catch his stride until the second half of the year.
In his first 7 games of 2024 he had 21 catches for 298 yards and 2 TDs. The next 7 games saw him almost double the receptions (41) and yards (577) with 7 TDs. Addison may get off to a slow start once again as he’s facing a possible suspension due to a DUI arrest.
WR: Jalen Nailor
Nailor finished last season with 28 / 414 / 6. He benefited heavily when T.J. Hockenson missed all of September and October. The bulk of his production came during those first 7 games when he put up 14 / 229 / 3. He started the year with a TD in each of his first 3 games but in addition to Hockenson being out during that entire span, Addison also didn’t play in 2 of those as well.
He went the next 8 games following October with only 6 / 51 / 2 in totality before exploding in the last 2 games of the season with 8 catches on 9 targets (89%) for 134 yards and a TD. He should see a boost again this year, if/when Addison misses time from suspension.
WR: Tai Felton
Felton saw his receptions at least double year-over-year while in college, going from 5 to 23, then 48, before finishing with 96 for over 1,100 yards and 9 TDs last year.
Despite being 6’1 with 4.37 timed speed, he won’t take the 3rd receiver position and run with it. Felton should have an opportunity early on to contribute with Addison out. Upon Addison’s return, Felton would move to a depth piece that occasionally replaces Nailor on some reps as the 3rd receiver.
TE: T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson missed the first 7 games of 2024. He went the last 10 games without recording a TD, but that was more of an anomaly after putting up around 5 TDs a year in his previous 4 seasons. He stayed around his average on catches with 40+ for 450+ yards during that span. Hockenson will return to a more typical season in 2025, with numbers hovering around 65/ 750 /5.
TE: Josh Oliver
In the last week that Hockenson was out, Oliver caught a TD, then followed it up the next week with another TD, despite Hockenson’s return to the lineup. It was the beginning of a 4-game run in which Oliver averaged 4 catches for 40+ yards. An untimely wrist injury then knocked him out of the lineup for the next 2 games.
Upon his return he was an afterthought, only catching 3 passes for 42 yards in total over the last 5 games. The rookie 6th-rounder, Gavin Bartholomew, will look to fill the role of Johnny Mundt. He’ll develop more as a blocker and just be an occasional chain-mover in the offense and remain behind Oliver as a preferred receiving option among the tight ends.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Jordan Mason
While the Vikings’ passing attack has flourished under O’Connell, the same can’t be said about the run game. In 3 seasons with O’Connell as head coach, the Vikings have finished 26th, 24th and 26th in rush yards per play.
Mason will get the bulk of the goal-line carries and will eat into Jones’ rush attempts. While he won’t be a heavy contributor as a receiving back, he’ll rush for 1,000 yards and record double-digit TDs on the ground. It’ll mark the first time a Vikings’ back has done so since Dalvin Cook in 2020 and more than Minnesota had as a team in 2024 (9).
BUST: Rondale Moore
Moore has recorded 40+ receptions and a TD in each of his 3 NFL seasons while averaging 400 receiving yards per year. In 2025, he’ll be competing with the rookie Tai Felton to be 4th among receivers on the depth chart. Moore has averaged 45 receptions for 400 receiving yards a year. Those numbers will be cut in half this year with him finishing with 22 catches for 200 yards.
SLEEPER: J.J. McCarthy
McCarthy will face some struggles as he missed his entire rookie season due to a knee injury. Despite that, he’ll hit the marks for 3,500 passing yards and 25+ TDs while maintaining a 3-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio.
BOLD PREDICTION: Aaron Jones / Jordan Mason
Both backs will rush for over 1,000 yards, with Jones also accumulating 50+ receptions. They’ll get more-for-less from Jones with him totaling double-digit TDs through the air and ground to go with Mason’s double-digit rushing TDs.
From 2018-2022, Jones averaged 191 rushes for 967 yards (5.1 ypc) and 8 TDs on the ground with 47 receptions for 364 yards (7.9 ypr) and 3 TDs through the air.
