Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Personnel Changes ::
Schedule::
Bull Case ::
The Bears were 4-2 entering their Week 7 bye and then lost to the Commanders on a botched/tipped Hail Mary in Week 8, which started a 10-game losing streak that they snapped by beating a hybrid-backup team the Packers put on the field in Week 18. That stretch over the second half of the year got Matt Eberflus fired, which may have actually been a good thing for the long-term outlook of the organization. Had the Bears scrapped their way to a 9-8 record, the team likely would have stuck with him and not added an offensive guru in Johnson to infuse energy to the organization.
The reality here is the Bears are absolutely loaded with talent and their new head coach has been a talent optimizer throughout his career. Creative and aggressive, Johnson has a roster absolutely brimming with potential. Williams was one of the stronger QB prospects we have seen over the last decade or so entering the league last year, and the difference between Johnson’s scheme this year and Shane Waldron’s last year should be night and day. The Bears may not win double-digit games this year thanks to a tough schedule, but there is a decent chance they play in some very entertaining shootouts. In addition to the additions at WR and TE, Chicago upgraded its offensive line and should give Williams more time to throw this year. All things considered, Williams should face less pressure in the pocket, play in a more well-structured scheme, and have more explosive players catching the ball. We should throw last year’s performance out the window the same way we threw out Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season with Urban Meyer. This year will tell us the true story of what the future of Williams and the Bears looks like.
Bear Case ::
Chicago still plays in the toughest division in the NFL, as the other three NFC North teams went a combined 29-4 in non-divisional games in 2024. All three of those teams return mostly intact, with the Lions still a front-runner in the NFC, the Vikings having a new QB who they view as an improvement over Sam Darnold, and the Packers, who were the NFL’s youngest team in 2024, theoretically poised to be equal or better this year. Granted, those opponents constitute only six of the Bears’ games and they have 11 others, but the rest of the schedule doesn’t look great for them, either. They play the NFC East and drew the Eagles and Commanders (last year’s NFC Championship teams) on the road, have four games against a tough AFC North, and drew the 49ers as a fellow “fourth-place team”, but the 49ers certainly don’t have a fourth-place roster. The NFL is a weekly, head-to-head game and you are judged off your performance against whoever you are playing. The fact of the matter is the Bears will be playing high-quality opponents almost every week, so there will be no easy honeymoon/transition phase to the Johnson era.
From a personnel and scheme perspective, the Bears’ backfield still leaves a lot to be desired. Swift struggled to gain Johnson’s trust when they were both in Detroit and Swift has not been the most dependable player in many facets of his game throughout his career. He is not a physical runner and has also battled injuries throughout his career, while the backup RBs are not very inspiring either. The Bears’ skill players also carry some risk from a systemic level, as they have a clear top-five WR/TE rotation that consists of three players in their first or second season along with Moore and Kmet, holdovers from a previous regime who struggled to produce last season.
Putting those two things together and looking at the QB situation, Williams was disappointing in his rookie season. There are a lot of reasons or excuses we can make, but sometimes young QBs don’t recover from that kind of a start or it takes them multiple seasons to get back on track. Williams will deal with an insanely hard schedule, a new scheme, and a supporting cast filled with questions this season. There is a chance that is just too much to overcome.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The concerns about the Bears’ schedule are very, very real – as are the potential issues with their skill group. However, my confidence in Johnson is strong and I think that this is a team who will be competitive and at least challenge for a playoff spot this year. In particular, I think the Bears’ offensive production will be higher and they will put a lot more points on the board. Last year, they ended up with decent counting stats in many games simply because they would fall behind by two or three scores in the first half and then throw the ball so much against soft defenses that they were “fake” stats. This year I expect a productive and threatening offense out of Chicago ::
