Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
Can Anthony Richardson stay healthy? That is the prevailing question regarding the potential upside of this offense. And while Richardson ranked dead last in completion rate and first in average intended air yards in 2024, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per dropback. The upside of this offense completely revolves around Richardson’s level of health. Head coach Shane Steichen remains one of the most dynamic offensive minds of the era, capable of maximizing the talent he has on the roster. The biggest problem over the previous two seasons has been the level of continuity he has had to overcome with all the injuries under center. If Richardson can stay healthy, this offense could sneak its way into the top 10 in scoring in 2025.
Bear Case::
The bear case for this offense similar to the bull case revolves around the level of health of Richardson. We’ve seen how poorly this offense performs with backup-level quarterback play in each of the previous two seasons. And yes, Daniel Jones is a backup-level talent, meaning this team could be thrust back into mediocrity at the drop of a hat should Richardson suffer another injury.
Expectations/Takeaways::
The Colts offensive line ranked 31st in pressure rate allowed (52.2%), yet Anthony Richardson was sacked at a low 6.1% rate (11th). Richardson’s athleticism obviously limits the damage behind a poor pass-blocking offensive line, but the point here is that this line is no longer in its once-dominant form from a few years ago. Likely exacerbating those issues are the offseason personnel changes up front, with this line now looking at starting two to three new bodies. And while they ranked top 10 in run-blocking metrics a season ago, they lost arguably their top two linemen in the run game. Jonathan Taylor’s running style more or less welcomes contact while running through the initial tackler, highlighting how this team had a large disparity in yards before contact and yards per carry.
Anthony Richardson again led the league in deep ball throw rate (18.6%) and average intended air yards (11.9) but ranked dead last in accurate throw rate (39.4%), among qualified passers. That perfectly captures his play style as a highly mobile gunslinger, something head coach and offensive play caller Shane Steichen has seemingly failed to fully harness through two seasons. To be fair on that front, Richardson has only made 15 starts and finished only 11 of those games in that timeframe.
Those two pieces combine to create a setup with a quarterback that attacks downfield behind an offensive line, which is likely to struggle in pass protection, likely leading to increased scramble rates from Richardson. Richardson ranked sixth in fantasy points per dropback in 2024 due in large part to his hefty scramble rate, behind only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Justin Fields (whoa), and Jayden Daniels, highlighting the case to be made for his pure upside in a fantasy setting.
What I am most interested in seeing from this team in 2025 is how they incorporate rookie tight end Tyler Warren. The team spent significant draft capital on the towering Penn State product, but they currently hold seven tight ends on the roster and typically utilized a four-man rotation at the position last year. Consider me slightly below consensus on the rookie, with a current ADP likely influenced heavily by the recent breakout from then-rookie tight end Brock Bowers a season ago. Pair that with Richardson’s well below average checkdown rates, and there is simply more downside than upside at current valuation.
Jonathan Taylor is one of the top pure rushers in the league, but is likely going to be forced to continue overcoming an offensive line that is average-to-below-average in run-blocking metrics. He ranked first in opportunity share (88.4%), second in snap share (80.5%), and sixth in red zone touches (60, with 13 goal line carries) a season ago; and the coaching staff remained consistent, meaning we should again expect a massive workload for the sixth-year back.
Wide receivers Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs are all “solid NFL talents for their respective positions,” yet are held down by the inconsistencies of Richardson as a passer. Finally, I highly doubt the narrative of Daniel Jones being brought in to challenge Richardson’s starting gig. To me, he’s a backup-level quarterback talent that exhibits similar quarterback tendencies to their injury-prone starter.
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
