Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Personnel Changes ::
Schedule ::
Bull Case ::
The additions of Campbell in the first round, Bradbury, and Moses bring the potential for the offensive-line play to improve for the Patriots in 2025, which is good news considering they were a bottom-five unit a season ago. Stability at the quarterback position in second-year starter Drake Maye is also a plus. If you remember back to a season ago, this team had massive question marks under center, with Maye not taking over in earnest until Week 6. Although not on the same level as the top rushing quarterbacks in the league, Maye also brings a semblance of dual-threat ability to the offense.
The team also addressed the general lack of talent amongst its skill-position corps this offseason, bringing in wide receivers Diggs and Hollins in free agency and drafting Henderson in the second round.
Bear Case ::
The Patriots finished the 2024 season with a bottom-five offensive line in most metrics, highlighted by 213 pressures allowed and the sixth-most sacks surrendered. It is difficult to sustain any level of consistency at the NFL level with such struggles along the offensive line, backing up the poor overall offensive performance (third fewest points per game at 17.0).
The defensive-minded Vrabel doesn’t instill much confidence that this team will be looking to push the envelope when it comes to pace, aggression, and scoring, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was a legitimate liability the last time we saw him in charge of an offense with the Raiders.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Rookie running back Henderson brings three-down ability to the offense, something they have sorely been lacking in recent history. He enters the league as one of the top rookie backs in pass protection and is more than capable through the air. Whether Henderson is treated as a three-down back in New England remains to be seen, but he has that within his range of outcomes in 2025. There is also no way of telling whether Diggs is cooked or simply struggled through injuries last year. The soon-to-be 32-year-old will be playing for his third team in as many seasons but still averaged eight targets per healthy game in 2024 (9.4 in 2023, 9.6 in 2022, and 9.6 in 2021) and missed no more than one game in each of the previous three seasons. He could experience a legitimate resurgence as the clear alpha pass catcher for an offense that quite literally has nowhere to go but up.
Which brings us to Maye. Maye amassed 30 or more rushing yards in six of 10 appearances in which he played most of the game in his rookie year. He also took 34 sacks, threw 10 interceptions, and fumbled nine times (lost six), but there is clear upside in his athletic profile. The improvements to the offensive line could help mitigate those negative plays and turnovers, making this offense primed for one of the most drastic improvements in efficiency and scoring heading into the new season. It is highly unlikely the Patriots crack the top 10 in scoring in 2025, but an additional 4-5 points per game (well within their range of outcomes) would place them near the middle of the league instead of bottom five.
I am not a believer in Hollins as a legitimate NFL talent and DeMario Douglas has been unable to break through as anything more than a gadget slot/possession receiver, meaning I would limit exposure to Maye, Henderson, and Diggs, with the potential to mix in tight end Hunter Henry into Maye stacks.
