Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
I have referenced the book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman many times throughout this weekly column. When I ask Chat GPT to describe the distinction between our fast thinking minds and our slow thinking ones, here’s what it says:
“Kahneman explains how these two systems interact, how System 1 dominates many situations, and how reliance on it can lead to cognitive biases and faulty judgments. The book delves into psychological research and provides insights into how understanding these processes can improve decision-making and reduce errors in judgment.”
At this point in our DFS season, you should have developed many biases and errors in your judgments about these teams. How comforting is that as you prepare for this week’s slate? No matter how intuitive and quick you are in analyzing these teams and matchups, your fast thinking mind which has developed an almost automatic overview of this slate is gonna make errors. It’s gonna get things wrong because it has also developed biases that help make these shortcuts fast and efficient.
An exercise I am going to conduct here is pretty new, but I think it can be a great addition to our process this late in the season and can significantly help us to make decisions, saving us all some time at the end of the week. I am going to go through the slate as quickly as possible and generate some initial thoughts. I will write them down in this space and then hunt through those thoughts for some biases that should point me in the direction of a few +EV plays. I will underline the biases which will be a mixture of primacy bias, novelty bias, and recency bias. At the end of the article, I will analyze how recognizing these biases can help us to make better decisions.
