JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in “The Week 1 Special” pod, on the One Week Season podcast feed.
Sam Howell
Miles Sanders
Josh Jacobs
Curtis Samuel
Calvin Ridley
Chris Olave
Mike Gesicki
Marvin Mims
Texans
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Hurts scored 27.5 or more DK points in over half of his regular season games last year, reminding us that he’s one of the highest-floor ways to spend salary this weekend. He also had three games of 37+. This game has a wide range of potential outcomes (could be high-scoring, could be low-scoring), but against an aggressive Patriots defense that likes to blitz and play man coverage regardless of opponent, there is opportunity for a huge game, and Hurts will almost never “completely burn you” for playing him. I strongly encourage you to listen to “The Week 1 Special” pod this week (find it in the One Week Season podcast feed), as I break down my player pool thoughts on every game, giving a much deeper look at things than a typical NFL week provides the space for; but as noted there, I’ll be pairing Hurts with one of his pass catchers on each roster where I play him.
Last season didn’t give us a 2021 Cooper Kupp player, or a “healthy, OG Panthers-role Christian McCaffrey” player (someone for whom 30 DK points was almost a disappointment, and 40 was surprisingly frequent), but Justin Jefferson was one of the closest we had, with nine games of 28.5+. He’s still a player on the rise, which means it won’t be surprising if this season tops last year. He’s on a team that likes to pass the ball, and he’s taking on a Bucs team that generally filters opponents to the air. Tampa’s zone-heavy scheme would limit upside for some wideouts, but Jefferson and Cousins are able to find small spaces to attack in the downfield portions of zones, giving him upside in all setups.
I’ll be betting on the Vikings having success through the air this week, which means that a lot of my non-Jefferson rosters will feature a different pass catcher from the Vikings as well.
Feel free to ignore me on this one.
Though I’ll point out that I’ve said that before on Miles Sanders, with 30+ points following.
Miles Sanders is a very good back, he’s the clear lead dog for Carolina, and the Panthers are banged up at wideout and will be looking to make things easy on Bryce Young. If Sanders gets 16 to 18 touches, he’s in the same range as almost all the backs priced around him, with an equal or higher level of talent (in a beatable matchup). If Sanders gets 22 to 24 touches (which will not be surprising), he’s getting significantly more opportunities than almost all the backs priced around him.
Davante Adams scored 30+ DraftKings points seven times last year, and Josh Jacobs hit that mark four times. Each had a game of 35+ vs the Broncos last season. These two are always in play.
“The Week 1 Special” pod (in the One Week Season podcast feed) dives into some interesting elements in this Bucs offense (building off some things said by offensive coordinator Dave Canales); but one thing he said — when discussing timeshares in other backfields, and using Zeke/Pollard and another similar situation as examples — was that ‘Those teams had two great backs, whereas we have one great back and several good backs.’ Translation: regardless of what might happen later in the year, White enters this season as “The Guy.”
Soft matchup.
Concentrated offense.
A role in the run game and the pass game.
The only real concern here is touchdowns. If he scores, he’s probably reaching value — and possibly going above what you need.
I expect him to be priced at $7.4k or higher within a few weeks. Even if he doesn’t hit this week, he’s one of the sharper ways to spend salary on the slate.
I’ll also have exposure to Kirk // Zay on some of my non-Ridley rosters.
I expect him to be priced at $7.7k or higher within a few weeks. Even if he doesn’t hit this week, he’s one of the sharper ways to spend salary on the slate.
I’ll also have a bit of exposure to Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson on some of my non-Olave rosters.
Will be competitive.
Could be low-scoring…
…but also, could be high-scoring.
I will have zero Higgins/Chase/Chubb away from rosters built around this game, but I’ll have a chunk of rosters built around this game.
More on this in the Building Blocks, but this one is pretty simple: I’m comfortable placing a bet this week that A) the Vikings will have a nice game on offense, and B) a lot of their production will come through the air. The Bucs’ side of the ball becomes very interesting as well, then, in one of their softer matchups on the year.
“Could be one of the stories of the week.”
Maybe not.
But if it is…you’ll want to be there.
I go deep into thoughts on this offense in “The Week 1 Special” pod (in the One Week Season podcast feed). I’ll have plenty of exposure to this team.
One of the things I like about Washington is that they are one of the teams I could see being up by 24 points and still deciding to throw the ball.
The same could be said about the Jags.
Jacksonville has potential to be a top team in the AFC this year, and Indy has potential to be a bottom team. It won’t be surprising if the Jags’ offense has a hot start to the year, and I’ll be positioning myself to benefit if that ends up being the case.
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
(If you’re looking for my thoughts on this game, you can check out my DFS Interpretations. Probably even more valuable, this deep into the week, is “The Week 1 Special” pod, which you can find on the One Week Season podcast feed. I break down my player pool thoughts on all 13 Main Slate games.)
As explored in “The Week 1 Special” pod (in the One Week Season podcast feed), the story here is simple :: “Washington is willing to be aggressive on offense regardless of score, and is going to be better than most people realize.”
Howell will grab some ownership this week, but not many people will go with a double-stack, and even fewer will go with a bring-back. Rondale Moore has serious upside as a player, and could be in line for a Year 3 breakout in a better offense. If Howell is doing what this roster bets on him doing, the Cardinals are forced to pass, and some of that volume will fall to a talented, unowned Rondale Moore.
The major point of leverage with this roster is betting on the Washington offense while much of the field will be on the Washington defense — so this roster should be cognizant of trying to also roster a defense that has potential to outscore Washington. This block on its own won’t account for enough points to be “the only thing you needed to do differently in order to win a tourney,” but it has 5x potential and is immediately unique, putting a roster with this block in position to really only need one more differentiator in tourneys of most sizes.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“The Broncos want to be one of the stories of the week coming out of Week 1”
My deeper thoughts on this spot can be found in “The Week 1 Special” pod (in the One Week Season podcast feed), but it’s a good matchup, and it’s a good spot for the Broncos to make a statement (for one of the few NFL coaches who actually cares about those types of things). If Jeudy ends up missing this game, I like Sutton + Dulcich, Sutton + Mims, or Mims + Dulcich in place of Jeudy. Jacobs also works as a bring-back.
Russ + Jeudy won’t be totally unique (if Russ ends up at about 7% owned, that could mean that 5% of rosters also have Jeudy), and Davante will be a bring-back on probably at least half of those, meaning we can assume that Russ + Jeudy + Davante is on about 2% to 3% of tournament rosters. This means that our Russ + Jeudy + Davante rosters still need to do something to separate from the competition in one other spot (think of it like this :: if it’s a 10,000-entry tourney, 300 other rosters might also have this stack; so even if it absolutely goes off, how do you separate from those 300 to get to first?), but it has enough upside to immediately put you in competition against a much smaller pool of rosters if it hits.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Baker is feeling dangerous”
We expect the Vikings to be passing. Lots of people will be betting on the Vikings having success passing through Jefferson. But what do the Bucs do in response? Roll over?
The Bucs are out to prove something and have one of the softer matchups they’ll have this year, so while this doesn’t mean that the Bucs WILL prove something, it certainly opens the door. If Baker throws for 250 and two touchdowns, that’s a solid score at his DK price tag. So then…what if he hits Mike Evans for one long throw that bumps the numbers from 250-2 to 300-3?
Jefferson will be one of the more popular players on the slate, but Mike Evans could easily be 3% owned, and only a portion of those Evans rosters will also have Baker. This makes it easy to assume that only about 1% to 1.5% of the tournament field will have this block on their roster, giving you a pretty clear path to a first-place finish if this block hits. You want to remain sharp on other spots on a roster like this, but you don’t have to take on unnecessary risk, either.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Richardson throws a touchdown”
Ridley will be popular. Richardson will be popular. But Josh Downs costs $3.1k and will go almost completely overlooked. The Jags are strong on the perimeter, and Richardson will need some layups, so it won’t be shocking if Downs puts together something like a 5-60 game. What if he then adds a touchdown? He then becomes a separator piece against all the other Richardson/Ridley rosters.
Richardson + Ridley is obviously an attractive block, but it won’t be hugely unique. A bet on Downs, then, is an opportunity to immediately separate from all the other Richardson/Ridley builds. If Richardson/Ridley hit, you’ll still need a bit more help from your roster to emerge for a first-place finish — but a solid game from Downs would go a long way toward pointing you in that direction.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
As always, we’re looking (optimally) for sacks and turnovers from our DST, as this generates DST points and creates elevated opportunities for DST touchdowns. The Texans cost $2.1k on DK and quietly averaged 6.5 points per game last year, with nine games of 7+ and three games of double-digits; they are tough to pass on and now have DeMeco Ryans on the sidelines; at the price point, it’s worth a look || The Patriots can do it against anyone, and no one will be on them; they had 20-pointers last year vs bad teams (Indy, Arizona), but also scored 22 vs Detroit, 17 vs the Jets, 11 vs Las Vegas, 14 vs Cincinnati, and 12 vs Miami || Commanders will be perhaps the chalkiest overall play of the week taking on Josh Dobbs; Dobbs will probably get the ball out quickly and generally avoid sacks and turnovers, so the opportunity for upside might not be as high as people are hoping, but this play is unlikely to go awry, and it does have paths to hitting; love this in cash games (double-ups, head-to-heads, etc.), and don’t mind it in tourneys if the rest of the roster is built to be intelligently different || I love Anthony Richardson’s DFS and real-life ceiling, but the Jags can be a bit ferocious, and a couple mistakes for the big man in Indy won’t be surprising || The Eagles can do it against anyone, and if they are doing well on offense, they can make the Pats one-dimensional as the game progresses, creating elevated opportunities for sacks and turnovers || The Ravens are expensive (which should lower ownership), and they are facing C.J. Stroud in his first career game; if Baltimore can force the Texans to the air, this could turn out to be a really nice play. DST is also a great place to get weird if you see a matchup angle or strategy angle the field is overlooking.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Sam Howell || Anthony Richardson || Trevor Lawrence || Russell Wilson || Jalen Hurts
Miles Sanders || Josh Jacobs || Rachaad White || Raheem Mostert || Javonte Williams || Khalil Herbert
Justin Jefferson (and other Vikings) || Jerry Jeudy (and other Broncos) || Jahan Dotson (and other Commanders) || Calvin Ridley (and other Jags) || Deebo Samuel || Chris Olave (and Michael Thomas) || Davante Adams || Jayden Reed
Mike Gesicki || David Njoku || T.J. Hockenson || Juwan Johnson || Greg Dulcich || Hunter Henry || Luke Musgrave
Texans || Patriots || Commanders || Jags || Eagles || Ravens || defense is also pretty wide-open to me this week, so I won’t be surprised if a team that isn’t on this list finds its way onto some of my tighter builds
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
