The departure of Detroit’s former offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, to their divisional rivals, the Chicago Bears, as their head coach, could prove pivotal. Jared Goff is coming off the best year of his career.
The previous best year of Goff’s career was 2018. After that season, he lost his QB coach, Zac Taylor, to the Cincinnati Bengals as their head coach, and the wheels came off for Goff.
QB: Jared Goff
Goff is coming off the best and most efficient season of his career. He set career highs in TDs (37), completion percentage (72.4%) and passer rating (111.8). Detroit tied the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL (15-2). Goff than finished last year with 2 TDs / 5 INTs in his last 2 games (WK 18 vs Vikings for the #1 seed & playoff game vs Commanders).
Goff has thrown 4+ interceptions in a game only twice in his career, once in 2018 at Chicago (4 INTs) and once in 2024 at Houston (5 INTs). Each of those seasons, he finished with 12 total interceptions. The playoffs following those regular seasons are the only years in which he threw interceptions in the playoffs. The parallel reads like a warning in the tea leaves.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
The last three weeks of the regular season last year saw David Montgomery miss, while Gibbs flourished. In 3 games, Gibbs rushed 18+ times, went over 100 yards, and recorded TDs in each game, totaling 6. Then, in the playoffs, Gibbs had another 100+ rushing yard game with two TDs and was the most targeted player in the game (11) with 6 catches for 70 yards.
His role increased from 2023 to 2024, and he was even better for it. While recording almost 70 more carries year-over-year, his yards per carry (ypc) increased from 5.2 to 5.6. As a receiver, despite having the same number of catches (52) as he had as a rookie, he caught those on 8 fewer pass attempts and gained 200+ more yards for 4 TDs after only 1 receiving TD in 2023.
RB: David Montgomery
Gibbs being able to take on a more lead-dog role will lengthen Montgomery’s career. Instead of 1A and 1B, Gibbs should see 300+ touches a year, compared to Montgomery, around 220. Montgomery’s 4.6 ypc in 2023 was an anomaly. He’s more of a power back that’ll stay around 4.2 or below.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown had an insane catch rate of 82% last season. That’s a 10% increase over his two previous years. It’s not sustainable, just as the 160+ targets that he saw in 2023 weren’t bound to last.
The emergence of their #2 receiver, Jameson Williams, in 2024 has drastically reduced the target distribution of St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. St. Brown will stay around the 140 targets in 2025, but expect his catch rate to fall back down to earth, somewhere around the mid-70s.
WR: Jameson Williams
Williams has seen his games played, targets, and catch rate grow each season. His targets went from 9 as a rookie, to 42 to 91 in 2024. He finished last year with a catch rate of 64% and recorded 1,000+ yards with 7 TDs, while averaging 17.3 yards per reception. He’s so dynamic that they’ll have to continue to get the ball in his hands in as many ways as possible.
WR: Tim Patrick
Patrick had back-to-back seasons with 50+ receptions, 700+ receiving yards and 5+ TDs with the Denver Broncos in 2020 and 2021. Then he missed all of 2022 and 2023 with severe injuries. He returned in 2024 with the Lions and caught 33 passes for 394 yards and 3 TDs on a career-best 75% catch rate.
Last season started slowly for Patrick with the Lions, but around the time Kalif Raymond went down, Patrick had a span of five games in which he recorded three or more receptions in four of them. Patrick will have Raymond and rookie 3rd-rounder Isaac TeSlaa to compete with for reps behind the top quartet of St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta and Gibbs.
TE: Sam LaPorta
LaPorta is still a top talent and option on this Lions’ roster, but he’ll find it difficult to match his rookie season of 2023, in which he was targeted 120 times and put up 86 / 889 / 10. The drop in targets of almost 40 (83) in 2024 has an almost direct correlation to Williams’ increase of almost 50 from the same two-year span.
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Jameson Williams
His role will not diminish as he finished the regular season with 5+ receptions in 6 of the last 7 games. He’s only had 14 carries in the last 2 regular seasons, but has 2 rushing TDs. What’s more, he has had 2 carries in the last 2 playoffs and rushed each one for a 40+ yard TD. Williams will put up 1,300 total yards and double-digit TDs in 2025 with 70+ receptions.
BUST: David Montgomery
The Lions had the highest scoring offense in 2024, averaging 33.2 points per game, and ranked 5th in 2023. Montgomery benefited as the power back, soaking up goal-line carries in that type of high-octane offense.
He’s rushed for 25 TDs over the last 2 seasons combined in Detroit. In the four seasons with the Bears, he totaled 26 rushing touchdowns. This year, Montgomery will be back to around 800 rush yards, 8 TDs, similar to where he hovered as the lead back in Chicago his first 4 seasons.
SLEEPER: Tim Patrick
Patrick will be another year removed from his devastating injuries in 2022-2023. Being behind the top 4 options in the passing game will limit him from returning to being a 50/ 700 /5 receiver. However, he’ll hold off Raymond and TeSlaa enough to put up 40 / 500 / 4.
BOLD PREDICTION: Jared Goff
Goff won’t play up to par with what he’s displayed in recent seasons with Johnson in Detroit. The offense will see a decline. While he may not drop back down to as low as 2019 when he completed 63% of his passes with 22 TDs / 16 INTs, he will be closer to that than the 72% rate with 37 / 12 that he’s freshly coming off of. He’ll finish 2025 at 67% completion for 4,300 yards, 26 TDs / 14 INTs.
