Ahhhhhhh the NFC North. Formerly the NFC Central, back when the Buccaneers called this division “home.” As our friend Fatboy Slim said… We’ve come a long, long way together, Through the hard times and the good. I have to celebrate you, baby, I have to praise you like I shoullllllllldddd. Let’s run through the hard times and the good for each of the four teams that reside in the North. Here they are, in predicted (by me) order of finish in the division.
Clearly, the Lions are the cream of the crop in this set. Division winners last season and came within one game (and maybe more accurately – one quarter) from the Super Bowl. Entering 2024, they are right up there with the 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, and generally the Packers as the favorites to represent the NFC in the big game. And rightfully so. This team is STACKED with talent on both sides of the football, but let’s be for reals – this team will go as far as the offense takes them. With Pro Bowl-caliber talent at every offensive position (including a FANTASTIC offensive line), expectations couldn’t be higher.
Jared Goff (QB8), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB10), David Montgomery (RB12), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3). And Sam LaPorta (TE1) should be drafted with confidence. I expected similar (or better) results from these same players in the same system that saw them DOMINATE in 2023. Gibbs had a slight hamstring issue in camp but returned to practice Monday and should be good to go for the opener. St. Brown (R1), Gibbs (R1-2), and LaPorta (R3) – you’re going to have to pay for those guys. I do love the value we’re getting in both Goff (R10-11) and Montgomery (R6) at current ADP, and it presents a real profit opportunity, allowing you to grab your RB1s and your WR1s early while still returning great value. So what I’m telling you is there is a QB available after pick 100 that realistically projects to throw for 4,500 yards and 30+ touchdowns… GIDDYUP.
Oh… and here’s a little blurb on Jameson Williams and his breakout potential.
As a lifelong fan of the Monsters of the Midway, it pains me to write positive things about the Packers. But facts are facts. A-A-Ron got out of town with the designation of “Daddy,” and for the better part of the last 30 years, the Packers have contended. Second in the Norris last season with a 9-8 record, the Pack is set to make strides this season.
Jordan Love really surprised me last season, about which I’ve already waxed poetic. I think he’s a fantastic QB, with a fantastic set of wide receivers. Jayden Reed (ADP – WR34), Dontayvion Wicks (WR62), Romeo Dobbs (WR50), and Christian Watson(WR38) – in order of my preference – aren’t necessarily world-beaters individually, but as a collective, represent one of the deepest groups in the NFC. Unfortunately, this is more of a real-life thing than a fantasy thing. I’m not expecting any of them to break into the top 20 at the position, but each has the ability in the right situation. The beneficiary from a fantasy perspective is Love, who will shine once again (QB6 just a season ago). And like the aforementioned Goff, Love is coming off the board in the R6-7-8 range, allowing us to stockpile early on those oh-so-important WRs and RBs.
Speaking of RBs, Josh Jacobs is the new kid in town, and I’m not super excited about that. Something changed with Jacobs last year, and until I see a difference, I’m fading him everywhere. I expect the volume to be there, but the efficiency metrics all dropped significantly for Jacobs in 2023. Volume can be everything – especially in the current running back landscape (see: Rachaad White). I’m just not certain we get that from Jacobs this year. Marshawn Lloyd, on the other hand, I am excited about. And with A.J. Dillon now out for the season, Lloyd steps into the RB2 role with the team. If Jacobs isn’t getting the job done, which I expect (albeit somewhat illogically), this will turn into a true timeshare at the position. There could be opportunity for both – I mean, the Gibbs and Montgomery 1-2 punch seems to work just fine – but I wouldn’t bet on similar success with the Green Bay backfield. Let me reiterate – I really like Lloyd, and if he gets the opportunity, you’ll also really like him. Lloyd is well worth a grab at his current price (RB50 around R15 – expect him to go sooner with the Dillon news). But this is Jacobs’ show, for now, so act accordingly.
Also. Luke Musgrave – meh. Talented kid, but option sixes for targets don’t tend to matter much for fantasy outside the random touchdowns here and there.
Hello, beautiful! I kid. But seriously. Have you been watching Hard Knocks? Fantastic program regardless of team. But after watching the first few episodes, how can you NOT be jazzed about CW18 (I think it’ll stick?)? I wrote about him already, but this kid is SPECIAL. I cannot wait to see what the future holds for him and my crew. However, we are talking about this season, so what does that look like?
Along with the glitz and glamor and romanticism that inherently ensues, can you imagine the pressure Williams must feel? I’m sure all first-round QBs feel it, but this city (and basically the world) has anointed him as the savior of the franchise – that’s a lot to carry. He’ll have all the leeway he needs, and I do expect him to excel this season (remind you of anyone?), but remember, he’s still a rookie, and there will be growing pains. CW18 (so fetch) is currently being drafted as QB13, ahead of guys like Tua, Goff, and Lawrence, which is kind of crazy to me. Tua I maybe get (injuries), and maybe it’s Caleb’s running that boosts him a bit. Idk.
I like the running back room, and I do think D’Andre Swift will be an asset for fantasy managers. The backups – Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson – have proven capable yet unspectacular. My guess is a 55/35/10 split between the three unless injuries or inefficiency creep up. Swift is a former first-rounder and has flashed before. I think this is a passing offense now, and both Swift and Herbert stand to benefit from that in PPR leagues. The Bears O-Line was good in 2023, and I think they got a little deeper in the off-season. This won’t be the premier unit in the league, but it won’t be the worst.
The wide receiver group here stands out to me in a big way. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are Pro-Bowlers, and Rome Odunze looks like the real deal. I couldn’t be happier as a Bears fan that we landed him at 1.9 in April. Rome and Caleb are VIBING y’all, and I expect that to transition into the regular season. Unfortunately, and similar to Green Bay’s problem, there are a LOT of mouths to feed in this offense. So I’m not certain any of these guys on their own stand out on a weekly basis. Somebody will step up and lead the group, and my money (and the Bears’ money) is on DJ Moore. Stay tuned. Oh, and here’s a little write-up I did on these three earlier in this off-season.
By the way, Cole Kmet (see many-mouths-to-feed reference above). Kmet has all the tools to be amazing, but there were rumblings during camp that Gerald Everett was outworking Kmet and could steal some opportunities. We’ll see when we line up at Soldier against the Titans in Week 1.
Confession – I’m also not a huge fan of the Vikings. Blame Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. Sigh. However, I am a conscientious, objective evaluator. So here goes.
The Vikings signed Sam Darnold in March, but we all knew they’d be drafting one in April, also. We weren’t certain which one, but we just knew they would. That pick turned out to be J.J. McCarthy, who I was kind of “in” on until it was announced that he was lost for the year due to a knee injury. Bummer for the kid, who I think had a real opportunity to start at some point this season. That leaves us with Darnold, who has never set the world on fire – which isn’t entirely his fault. He now enters Week 1 as the unquestioned QB1 in Minnesota and is in arguably the best situation he’s ever been in. He’s also drawing high praise, which is a plus. Darnold’s current ADP is QB31 (pick 211), but expect him to go sooner now that he has the keys to the car. I honestly don’t hate it, either, and I may end up with a share or two of Darnold. He’s got one of – if not THE – premier pass catchers in the league, and that helps.
Aaron Jones has been one of my favorite fantasy running backs over the last five years or so, and he’s really fun to watch. A capable runner and pass catcher, he stands unchallenged in this backfield for touches, so I expect A LOT of volume. And remember what I said about volume for RBs? It can be everything. Jones missed a lot of time last year with injury, which does raise concerns about his ongoing durability (Draft Sharks lists his injury probability for 2024 at 87.6%). If he stays healthy, he’ll eat. In his last three games of 2023, he was a BEAST, and I’m betting the Vikings want to take some pressure off Darnold via the running game. He’s currently a touch too expensive for my taste, however (RB19, just outside the Top 50). That honestly is probably about right. I won’t hate it if he’s on my team, but my cheeks will pucker a bit if I have to I draft him.
Justin Jefferson is that dude. I could write an entire article about how fantastic he is, but I’m running out of available characters. Let’s just agree he’s right up there with Ja’marr, CeeDee, and Amon-Ra. The volume will be there, as will the targets and touchdowns. Bank it. Jordan Addison demonstrated as a rookie that he’s not too shabby himself. Addison played in all 17 games and just missed the top 20 at the position (22). He’s a game-breaker, capable of the “home run” every catch he makes. It looks like the training camp injury may limit him early on, but his current ADP of WR48 (just inside the top 100) is too tasty for me to pass up. You’ve been warned – if you’re drafting against me, I’m scooping.
Furthermore, our friend T.J. Hockenson will be on the PUP list to start the season, missing at least the first four games. My guess is that we won’t see him before Week 6, maybe later. He is expected to return this season, however, so we need to pay attention. With Kirkers slinging the rock, he’d be a no-brainer Top 5 at the position. But it’s not Kirkers; it’s the Darnoldinator (I know, fetch). I’m downgrading him for the injury, and downgrading him for the QB. Somebody is going to draft him too early (ADP – TE14, 123), but it won’t be me. If he’s there when I’m looking for my second tight end, or if I miss on my first, I’ll throw a dart. But Hock’s name recognition alone translates to someone reaching, and being very proud of themselves for it.
