“I think Callahan might be the best prospect in the draft. But I hate rookie quarterbacks. They’re stupid, and they’re scared.” – Coach Penn, Cleveland Browns, to Sonny Weaver, General Manager. I know you get the reference. And if you don’t love the movie Draft Day, I’m not sure we can be friends.
Coach Penn may have been on to something. For every Andrew Luck (2012), Cam Newton (2011), and C.J. Stroud (2023), there are the Ryan Leafs, the Jeff Georges, and the JaMarcus Russells. Every year, we hear about a generational talent… “the next (insert amazing QB name here).” Waaaaaaay more often than not, it doesn’t work out. Sometimes, the rookie signal callers turn into serviceable pros. And then again, some of them go on to set the NFL on fire.
So, what do we have with this rookie class from a fantasy perspective? Following in the footsteps of our friend Cam Giangrande, who wrote a fantastic piece on the rookie class of wide receivers (read it Here), I’ll list the QBs in order of preference for this season, add some quick bits about the rest, and sprinkle in some dynasty thoughts as well.
“With the first pick of the NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select…” Finally! My beloved Bears have a quarterback to get excited about (honorable mention to another of my favorites, Mr. Jay Cutler).
I’m certain we won’t get Pat Mahomesian numbers this season, but I do think there’s a great opportunity here. Williams finds himself in arguably the best situation a rookie QB has ever been in (honorable mention to the aforementioned 2011 Panthers) – two Pro-Bowlers (Moore and Allen) and a rookie with tremendous upside (Odunze) at WR, a decent tight end room (Kmet and Everett), and a versatile RB group that includes newly signed D’Andre Swift. Translation: the kid has some weapons. The offensive line wasn’t horrible and got better in the offseason. Add to all this that Williams can run the rock (RE: check out his rushing touchdown this past Saturday), and we’ve got something here.
Also working in Williams’ favor is his offensive coordinator’s track record with QBs. Shane Waldron worked wonders in 2022 for Geno Smith, for Russell Wilson in 2021, and the hope is for Caleb Williams in 2023.
Williams’ playmaking ability jumps out at us, and it’s precisely what makes him special in ways Chicago QBs have rarely been. But it’s also one of his biggest weaknesses, as looking for home runs often means more pressure and more sacks.
I’m not going to spend early capital on him in redraft, but I wouldn’t hate it if he ended up on my team. He’s currently being drafted as QB15, right around the turn of round 10. The next QB on my list is actually being selected ahead of Williams, so I suppose it’s a matter of preference. In dynasty, Williams is generally regarded as the top rookie in the QB class, going inside the top 3 players selected.
Daniels was the second quarterback off the board in April, and similarly to Williams, he finds himself in a fantastic situation. Daniels was a fantastic collegiate athlete and is the only player in FBS history to pass for 12,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards. He throws a beautiful deep ball and can take any run to the house. His resume is impressive.
Daniels also has a strong supporting cast. Terry McClaurin leads a group of talented pass catchers, and the Commanders added Austin Ekeler – who’s been known to catch a pass or several hundred out of the backfield- in the offseason. Rookie TE Ben Sinnott seems to have supplanted Zach Ertz as the starter, which gives Daniels another viable option. Plus, when all else fails, this kid is going to run. He’s played fantastically this preseason (12/15, 123 yards; rushing TD), and we most likely won’t see him again until the regular season. Daniels’ coaches have lauded his command of the offense, so it’s really a foregone conclusion that Daniels will get the keys in Week 1.
His offensive coordinator is Kliff Kingsbury, who knows a thing or two about passing the football. Kliff has had the opportunity to coach some fantastic quarterbacks—Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech (check his 2016 stat line from TT—wowsers), and the aforementioned Williams at USC. Kingsbury is known for stretching the field, which can only benefit his rookie quarterback’s numbers.
Daniels was sacked a ton in college (more than one sack in every four pressured dropbacks, per PFF) and thus remains a concern due to his style of play. Like Williams, Daniels looks for the big play and, as such, tends to hold on to the ball way too long. Shades of RGIII, and let’s hope he learns – as I tell my children constantly – to make good choices.
I was actually kind of surprised to see Daniels going off the board before Williams, but not stunned. What sort of shocks me is that he’s going before guys like Goff and Tagovailoa (and, honestly, Trevor Lawrence). The old axiom must still hold – there’s nothing sexier in fantasy sports than a prospect. I think the X-Factor is his running ability, which we all know adds tremendous value for our purposes. He obviously shoots up dynasty draft boards as well, and rightfully so.
Bo Nix is the starter in Denver, but not with the fanfare of the previous two on my list. Don’t get me wrong, Nix was a terrific college QB, and he brings A TON of experience at the position (61 starts over five seasons) to his role in Denver. He takes care of the football, avoids negative plays, and doesn’t take sacks. His senior season at Oregon was phenomenal – over 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns. His trademark is short, accurate passes that take advantage of pre-snap reads. Will all that translate to the pros?
You want to draw the comparison to Drew Brees, which is natural, given the Sean Payton factor. I promise you that’s what Denver is hoping for. Nix doesn’t have a cannon, but neither did Brees. He’s looked decent this preseason and has likely done enough to earn himself the starting gig (though it hasn’t been officially announced).
I’m going to knock Nix a bit for a couple of reasons. First, his style of play hasn’t historically transitioned well to the pros (exception – Mr. Brees). He’s athletic but not necessarily a playmaker. He’s not much of a runner, but he can when necessary. Second, his supporting cast isn’t nearly as polished as the first two on my list. He lacks pass catchers – Sutton is solid, but after him there isn’t much in the stable (get it… stable… horses… Broncos… ah, nevermind). I do think the RB room is deep, which will help. All said, Nix feels more like a game manager to me rather than the playmakers Williams and Daniels project to be.
I’m fading him completely in redraft and will not draft him. He’s being selected as QB23, outside the top 200 – so it looks like y’all agree with me. I will keep my eyes on him, though, and in a pinch, may look to add him off the wire (don’t judge; Payton is a wizard). Dynasty is different, however, and I’d say he’s definitely in the top 5 QBs based on draft stock and coaching.
Here’s a quick snippet on the rest of the QB Class of 2024:
Drake Maye, New England Patriots: He is currently being outplayed by Jacoby Brissett. He has a path to playing time this season. However, his low-scoring offense lacks legitimate weapons. Even if he starts, so what? I’m not excited, given the landing spot, despite his superb arm talent.
Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: QB2, no path to playing time outside an injury to starter Derek Carr; decent (but underperforming) weapons; Carr handcuff if you have room; dynasty stash who needs to grow.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: Knee surgery, out for the season; dynasty stash.
Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons: QB2, playing behind Kirkers for the time being on a win-now team; fantastic weapons on offense; no path to playing time outside injury to Cousins; dynasty stash we’ll check back on in three years.
