The team to beat in the NFC comes from the West. The San Francisco 49ers are the defending NFC Champions, and they are running it back in an attempt to break through and win it all. They’ve now lost two of the last four Super Bowls, one with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and last season with Brock Purdy. It may not be the quarterback. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan must have some of the blame for these losses; many would say he had the better team in each of those games.
Not only is the offensive core still intact, but the Brandon Aiyuk saga has ended with him agreeing to a 4yr/$120M to stay in San Francisco. And they added to their dynamic offense by expending first-round draft capital on WR Ricky Pearsall for two reasons: for offensive continuity for years to come and as insurance against Aiyuk bolting for greener pastures. Pearsall’s fantasy production will be reduced with Aiyuk back in the fold.
But for all of their weapons, if Purdy doesn’t have protection from his blind side to get the ball to the likes of Auyik, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle, none of it will matter. And that protection is in the form of left tackle Trent Williams, who’s sitting on his couch, holding out. He may be the most important cog in the entire offense.
Call it intuition, but this feels like a down year for the Niners. There is a long history of the losing Super Bowl team regressing the following season. In addition, McCaffrey has been unusually healthy with San Francisco. In 2020 and 2021, he missed a total of 23 games. In the last two seasons, he’s missed one game. Most team’s success relies on health, but maybe no team relies on it as much as the Niners. Aside from CMC, the team may need Samuel even more. He missed four games in 2022 and two last season, and the team cannot afford to lose him for any extended period.
Las Vegas still has lofty goals for the 49ers, making them the second favorites to win the Super Bowl, only behind the Chiefs. And they have set their o/u at 11.5. In a division with Kyler Murray back healthy to start the year with Arizona and Cooper Kupp ready to begin the season healthy with the Los Angeles Rams, duplicating last season’s 12-win campaign seems lofty at best. I can see a regression to 10-7 and possibly only a wildcard berth.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams finished last season with a 10-7 record. That record could be enough to win the division this season, but I think they have the team to improve upon last season. To begin with, they are back healthy.
When they are both on the field, the tandem of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp is one of the most dynamic tandems in the game, right up there with Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill and Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase. Losing Kupp for a period of time last season may have helped the team in the long run because it allowed Stafford to develop a bond with WR Puka Nacua. Stafford now has an amazing 1-2 punch with Kupp and Nacua.
The Niners may have the No. 1 rated RB in McCaffrey, but the Rams have a top 10 RB themselves in Kyren Williams. They also added rookie RB Blake Corum, a TD machine in Michigan. This offense scored the fifth most pts in the NFC last season and had the sixth-best point differential. And let’s not forget that the Rams, unlike the 49ers, were able to win the Big Game recently. While the Niners have been there twice recently, losing each time, the last team not named the Chiefs to win it all was the Rams. And they still have their HC, Sean McVay, leading the way.
From a fantasy perspective, Stafford will again be a 4000 YD passer, a level he has reached nine times in his career. Last season, Nacua nearly had 1500 receiving YDs, and with Kupp back, that production will surely decrease, but it is not out of the realm of possibility for them each to put up 1200 YD seasons. This team will wreak havoc this season. They are my hot take to win this division, and longshot at 30/1 to win it all.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are the picture-perfect definition of what Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL want: a mediocre .500 team. Last season, they had a -38 pt differential, with a 9-8 record for the second season in a row. This is an 8-9, 9-8 team.
The WR room is filled with studs. They have DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba…but nobody to get them the ball. I have never been a fan of Geno Smith. Usually, players are what they have been. It is rare for a player to miraculously break through after failing in this league. They show signs at times, or a blip here or there, but more often than not, they regress to what they always were.
And what Smith is is a mediocre quarterback. The fallback has already occurred. By Smith’s standards, he broke through in 2022, throwing for over 4200 YDs and 30 TD passes. Last season, he only threw 20 TDs and 3600 YDs. And most alarming, his completion percentage dropped from 69% to 64%. In the offseason, the team brought in Sam Howell, and although Smith is still the starter, he won’t be there by the end of the year.
Due to the spotty quarterback play, all of Seattle’s receivers will see their numbers regress. This team will be hard-pressed to be over .500 for a third straight year. Vegas also sees the potential for regression, placing their o/u at 7.5. This feels like a double-digit loss team, with 7-10 being the ceiling.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray is back, and all of Arizona is rejoicing…not really, but at least there is some hope. The team only went 4-13, but Vegas sees a big bump, setting their o/u at 7.5 wins. To double your win total in one season is difficult, so I still think the under is the play.
Murray will certainly help, as will the addition of first-round pick and first WR off the board, Marvin Harrison Jr…but they won’t be enough to avoid another double-digit loss season. Aside from Harrison Jr., the rest of the WR room is average. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch don’t strike fear in most cornerbacks in the league. The biggest offensive threat on the team, and Murray’s No. 1 target, is TE Trey McBride.
McBride had a breakout season and is currently on everyone’s top-five TE list. McBride caught 81 passes last season with a nearly 75% catch percentage. He only caught three TD passes to go along with a low average per catch of 10.2 yards. McBride’s numbers must improve for this team to win more than four games. As solid as last season was for McBride, it was under the radar.
Defenses will now start to focus on him, which will hurt his production. So, while he’ll need to get closer to 100 receptions and double-digit TDs, he’s more likely to regress to under 70 catches. Don’t minimize the fact that by drafting Harrison, he will demand a ton of targets, which will come from McBride. Ultimately, they will win more than the four games they won last season, but they will stay in the basement of the NFC West.
