Let’s face it: this division runs through Kansas City. The Chiefs are attempting to do something no NFL team has done before: win three consecutive Super Bowls. There are two rules of thumb when it comes to streaks and trends. One side believes that if something has never happened, it is more likely or even impossible to occur. The other says that if something has never happened, it is due to happen.
This is why roulette wheels have digital boards showing the wheel’s most recent spins. People love trends. If they see five consecutive red spins, people invariably gravitate to one or the other, depending on their philosophy. In this example, the contrarian will put their stack of chips on black.
Up to this point, only seven teams have had the opportunity to win three in a row…they all failed. It is reasonable to think the Chiefs will, too, although Las Vegas does list them as co-favorites with the 49ers at +600. And they are sitting with a lofty 11.5 o/u.
If possible, the Chiefs have improved in the offseason, giving Patrick Mahomes more weapons. In the offseason, they acquired Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who is entering his sixth season. Three seasons ago, Brown had his lone season receiving 1000 YDs. He’s proven to be a fantastic possession receiver, averaging 11.6 YDs per catch, and he catches about five TDs per year. Mahomes is the best QB to get him the ball, and Brown will benefit greatly from it.
Aside from Brown, the team loaded up with another early-round receiver, snagging one of the fastest WRs in the draft. They took Xavier Worthy in the first round. The biggest problem Worthy will face is that Mahomes only has so many balls to distribute during a game. And for a team with Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco to go along with the aforementioned Brown and second-season WR Rashee Rice, there may not be much room for Worthy. However, if he can gain Mahomes’ trust, he stands to carve out a nice role on the team.
With all that being said, I don’t think the Chiefs will three-pete…it’s never happened for a reason. It’s a tough task. At this point, the Chiefs have played six more games over the past two seasons compared to just about every other team in the league, and they’ve had a month less offseason time each of the last two seasons. Although I will not be taking them to win this year’s Superbowl, I can’t see them losing six regular season games…I’ll be betting over 11.5 wins.
Sean Payton is entering his second season in Denver. In the second half of 2023, the team seemingly turned the corner, and QB Russell Wilson was at least serviceable. Payton decided to cut bait with his overpriced QB and re-tool. The team drafted QB Bo Nix in the first round and his fellow Duck, WR Troy Franklin, in the fourth. In a division that has the two-time defending champs, who did it last year with a great defense, as well as a Raiders team that has a solid defense with perennial DPOY candidate Maxx Crosby, this young Broncos offensive core will be in for a long year. Vegas doesn’t seem to have much faith in them, only setting their o/u at 5.5.
The Raiders may only be a QB away…and recently, there’s been some chatter. Tom Brady is still working out, with Vegas as a possible landing spot. If this fantasy were to happen, not only would WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers’s numbers go up, but so would the 6.5 o/u that Vegas has set.
But since we live in reality, the Raiders’ current quarterback options are Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell. Welcome to the NFL, Brock Bowers. The No. 1 rated TE should still be able to put up solid numbers this season. I prefer TEs to maintain their stats regardless of who their quarterback is compared to their WR counterparts. Only having Minshew or O’Connell will not affect Bowers’ production.
The biggest potential setback will be the change at RB1. The team had Josh Jacobs for the first five seasons of his career. He had three 1000-plus rushing YD seasons in that time, with a high of 1653. And he’s never had a season under 805 yards. He’s been replaced by Zamir White. The best hope the Raiders will have is to have a productive, balanced offense, and when the passing game breaks down, White will need to be the workhorse that Jacobs often was.
The Chargers were the “IT” team a couple of years ago. They finally made the playoffs, had a huge lead against the Jaguars in that game, and proceeded to blow it. Last year, they regressed to only a 5-12 season. It cost the team its head coach, and they purged three high-level skilled players on offense. They got rid of WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen and RB Austin Ekeler. That is a ton of firepower to make up.
New head coach Jim Harbaugh likes to employ a balanced ball-control offense. He replaced Ekeler with two RBs, snagging two Ravens RBs, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. They drafted RB Kimali Vidar in the sixth round. They also restocked their WR shelves by getting DJ Chark and drafting Ladd McConkey in the second round.
The team’s fate remains with their QB, Justin Herbert, who is not much different from most teams. A ton of pressure and expectations have been put on the young QB since he entered the league in 2020. If I were to tell you his career record is below 500, you probably wouldn’t believe it, but it’s true. He’s 30-32 over his four-year career. This is a very important year for Herbert, and he enters it with a foot injury, being diagnosed with plantar fasciitis. If this lingers with him for the entire season, it will severely affect his stats, offensive pieces, and the team’s record.
Interestingly, Vegas doesn’t think this is much more than a .500 team. They have the o/u smack dab in the middle at 8.5. Although I think they should be an above .500 team, nine wins would be a four-game improvement over last year. My only fear in taking the over is my concern with Herbert’s health.
His feet may end up being the difference between the entire division other than Kansas City ending the season below .500. Again, I don’t think the Chiefs will three-pete, but they’ll have a cakewalk to the division. They may not get the No. 1 seed and bye with the new playoff rules, but they will easily win this division and their first-round home game in the playoffs. Getting beyond that first week will be more difficult and will depend on who their opponent is and whether the game will be at home or on the road. There are at least a few teams with the ability and talent to dethrone them. Houston, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati are all prime candidates. The Bills and Dolphins would make for an interesting playoff matchup, as would the Ravens. This season can’t get here quickly enough.
