This division boasts three teams that can make the playoffs, two teams that can make it to the Superbowl, and one team that will get there. The only team on the outside looking in will be the Tennessee Titans. Last season, they finished in last place with a 6-11 record. In the offseason, they lost HC Mike Vrabel, QB Ryan Tannehill, and RB Derrick Henry.
They have chosen second-year QB Will Levis and second-year RB Tyjae Spears. And to supplement their backfield, signed Tony Pollard to be their RB1. Pollard is a solid back, but he’s no Henry. And the team has an entirely new WR room, with Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd.
It remains to be seen if Levis can get them the ball consistently and accurately enough. Last season he only completed 58.3% of his passes. If the team hopes to improve on last season’s six wins, Levis will have to improve dramatically. Vegas doesn’t think he will: they have the Titans o/u set at 6.5 wins. I’ll have to take the under. Aside from being skeptical about Levis, the other three teams in the division have all improved, and those six divisional games that Tennessee has to play will be extremely difficult. I’ll be shocked if they do any better than 1-5 in the division.
To give you an idea about how tight this division is at the top, last year Houston won it, going 10-7, and Jacksonville and Indianapolis tied with a 9-8 record. This season, Houston’s o/u is set at 9.5 wins, and Jacksonville and Indianapolis are each at 8.5 wins. I think all three teams go over these numbers for the record.
As I said, I think one of these teams is headed to the Superbowl…and is The Houston Texans. I am so impressed with what CJ Stroud did last season. It truly was a historic year for a rookie QB. In only 15 games, he threw for over 4000 YDs and had a 25TD/8INT ratio. Anytime a QB has a three-to-one ratio, it’s impressive…when a rookie does it, it’s eye-opening. And he had a solid 64% completion percentage.
Last season, Stroud did it with two superb wide receivers, Tank Dell and Nico Collins. This season, they somehow got even better by snagging Stefon Diggs. This threesome may be the best 1-2-3 WR punch in NFL history. Last season the three combined, (albeit with Diggs in Buffalo), for 3289 receiving YDs…and that was with Dell missing six games. This group of WRs could combine for between 3500-4000 YDs, and Stroud could pass for 5000 this year. Houston will compete for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which will give them the sole first-round bye.
The other team in this division I think has the potential and talent to make it to the Superbowl is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence showed what he could do in the spotlight, coming back from a 24-3 deficit to defeat the LA Chargers two years ago in the playoffs. And although last season was a bit of a letdown, Lawrence still performed, producing a 4000 YD season. He threw 21 TDs with a slightly elevated 14 interceptions, which is a bit odd because he has a solid passing completion rate of 65.6%. The team has improved offensively during the offseason. They still have dynamic RB Travis Etienne and RB2 Tank Bigsby to fill in nicely if Etienne were to go down. But Etienne is paramount to the Jags offense. Not only is he a great runner, gaining over 1000 rushing YDs last season, but he also is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league, catching a whopping 58 passes last season.
Lawrence will get the ball to one of the best TEs in the league, Evan Engram, who’s in almost everyone’s top 10 TE list. And the team has given Lawrence more offensive weapons to get the ball to, getting Gabe Davis. They also drafted Brian Thomas as their first-round pick. A healthy season for Lawrence will produce another 4000 YD season and lead the Jaguars to a double-digit win season.
The Colts still have one of the best RBs in the league, Jonathan Taylor, and a dynamic WR, Michael Pittman. They have a decent supporting cast, with WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs and backup RB Trey Sermon. But they just don’t have the firepower of the Texans or Jaguars.
The team finally took a quarterback in the draft last season, snagging Anthony Richardson in the first round. It became an aborted season due to injury, but he’s back healthy this season and scheduled to start on opening day. He only played four games last season, so seeing how he performs with a full and hopefully healthy season ahead of him will be interesting.
They won nine games last season, mostly without him at the helm. There is no reason to believe they won’t at least duplicate that number this season with him. And especially with the third wildcard spot, there is a great chance that Richardson can be this season’s CJ Stroud and lead the team into the playoffs. There is no doubt that this team’s fortunes rest with Richardson. And although he doesn’t have the arm of either Stroud or Lawrence, he can beat you with his legs as a poor man’s Lamar Jackson. In his four games last season, Richardson rushed for 136 YDs with four rushing TDs. A full season will easily have him gaining over 500 YDs on the ground with over 10 TDs.
