There are very few divisions in the NFL where all four teams can legitimately hope to win their division. Usually, there are a couple, and sometimes three, teams vying for the top spot, but in the AFC North, all four teams can make an argument.
Last season, all four teams finished above .500, with the Bengals coming in last place at 9-8. Of the four, the Steelers have the longest odds of winning the division at +750, but they only finish above .500 every year. Last season, they finished in third place with a 10-7 record, and this season, there are again low expectations for this storied franchise.
But under the leadership of HC Mike Tomlin, at the end of every season, they just find a way to win the games they are “supposed” to win. They normally split with the Ravens and manage to win a couple of other divisional games. They won with their young quarterback Kenny Pickett last season, yet they didn’t re-sign him, opting for veterans Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
And if you look at their skill positions up and down, they stand to have a sneaky, dynamic offense. They have one of the better 1-2 tandem backfields in the game with RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. They also picked up hybrid RB/WR Cordarelle Patterson. They still have WR George Pickens, acquired Van Jefferson, and drafted WR Roman Wilson in the third round. They also have a top-15 TE, Pat Freiermuth.
Individually, none of these men may be top-tier players, but collectively, they may be one of the better overall offenses in the league this season. Last season, Harris rushed for over 1000 yards, and Warren has the potential to be a 1000 rusher, too. Pickens had over 1000 receiving YDs, and whether it’s Wilson or Fields behind center, either should be able to lead the team to an above .500 record again. Vegas has set their o/u at 8.5, and based on the fact they are ALWAYS above .500, I’ll grab the over.
And although I don’t think the Steelers will win the division, they have a puncher’s chance. Here are the other three teams in the division.
Cincinnati is my choice to win the division this season. They are co-favorites in the division, along with the Ravens. They are sitting at +165, while the Ravens are slight favorites at +145.
Joe Burrow is back healthy and seemingly on a mission. He has died his hair platinum to resemble Eminem, maybe as an homage, saying, “Guess who’s back…back again”. Burrow is one of the five best quarterbacks in the league, and he is as maniacal about winning as any quarterback. He’s made it to one Superbowl and is seemingly the only active QB who can compete with Patrick Mahomes head-to-head without fear or intimidation. When it comes to Burrow, it’s all about his health. He doesn’t quite have the moniker of being an injury-prone player…yet. But another injury keeping him off the field for any period will put him in that category.
The team absolutely needs him; without him, they finished in last place with a 9-8 record. Las Vegas sees an improvement this season, and so do I. They have the Bengals o/u set at 10.5 wins. Since I believe they will end the year as division winners, I’ll take the over…although the division is tight, and a 10-7 record could still be enough to prevail.
I like the team’s additions of Mike Gesicki from New England and their pickup of Zack Moss from Indianapolis. And, of course, they still have all-world WR Ja’Marr Chase, who’s paired with Tee Higgins. Last year, they had a trio with Tyler Boyd, who had moved on to Tennessee. With Burrow back and Boyd gone, look for Chase to have a career year…which is saying something because his career has already been a hall-of-fame caliber.
The Ravens are an excruciating team to follow. They invariably have fantastic regular seasons, only to fail in the postseason. Part of it has to be HC John Harbaugh’s coaching. He tends to get ultra-conservative when it comes to the playoffs, and the result is similar to so many other coaches who coach not to lose instead of coaching to win. When you have a racehorse like Lamar Jackson at quarterback, you owe it to him, the team, and the entire fanbase for opening him up and letting him go.
They finished last season at 13-4, and Jackson won another MVP (although I think Christian McCaffrey was more worthy). Las Vegas feels there will be regression, and I agree. They have the team’s o/a at only 10.5. For a team that won 13 games with the defending MVP, a 2.5-game regression is huge. Although I can’t see a repeat 13-win campaign, 11-6 is certainly reasonable.
The team has turned the page from their two RBs, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and replaced them with Derrick Henry. The 30-year-old RB is truly at the pace of being in the Hall of Fame. He rushed for nearly 1200 YDs last season, a “down” year. He’s had six consecutive seasons with 10 or more rushing TDs. Adding Henry clarifies that the team wants Jackson to run less, which means fewer rushing TDs. He averages five rushing TDs a year, and he’s never rushed for fewer than 695 YDs. I don’t think Jackson can be kept out of the endzone for an entire season, but he won’t get to five. You can bet on anything these days: Vegas has Jackson’s rushing YDs set at 725.5…take the under, he may not crack 500 this season.
WR Zay Flowers is entering his sophomore season and will build upon his solid rookie campaign. He’s coming off of a 77 catch, 858 YD season, and catching 5 TDs. This should become an 80-catch, 1000-YD season for the speedy WR.
Whether or not the Ravens hit the over and win the division again may fall on the massive shoulders of top-five TE Mark Andrews. He’s one of the best security blankets in the game and is seemingly always there for Jackson to get the ball to. He’s entering his seventh year in the league and feels he’s been around forever, but he will only be 29 years old in September. He missed seven games last season, and fellow TE Isaiah Likely filled in nicely. The team is good, and the team has depth, but it remains to be seen whether QB Jackson can lead them over the hump to the next level and get to the Big Dance.
The offensive coordinator is now with the New England Patriots, and quarterback Joe Flacco, who led them to a playoff berth, is currently with the Colts. HC Kevin Stefanski was a miracle worker last season, seemingly using a different quarterback each week. Winning 11 games absolutely surpassed all expectations. If the offense was often pieced together, there are two sides of the ball, and the defense is one of the best in the league, led by DE Myles Garrett.
QB Deshaun Watson is entering the season healthy and slated to be the team’s opening-day starter. He has had a whirlwind career, yet he will only be entering his age 29 season. He was considered an elite QB as recently as 2020 when he threw for over 4800 YDs and 33 TD passes, with an amazing 70.2% completion percentage.
Watson has a ton of offensive weapons to get the ball to. His WRs consist of Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy gives Watson the extra target to make a difference in the offense and help spread the field. For his career, he has a 14.5 ypc. Losing Nick Chubb to his horrific knee injury last season hurt the team, but Jerome Ford filled in nicely, gaining 813 rushing yds. And David Njoku has made himself into a top 10 TE. He caught 81 passes and 882 YDs and scored a career-high six TDs. Njoku has the talent and is in the right offensive scheme to duplicate his 80-catch season, threaten 1000 YDs and score 10 TDs.
Vegas feels a big fall is coming, setting their o/u at only 8.5 wins. The team has too much talent to have that much of a backslide. I can’t see a scenario that this team doesn’t at least stay above .500 to go 9-8. Take the over.
