Unless you include Las Vegas o/u prediction of 4.5 wins for the New England Patriots, only the New York Jets are projected to win more games this season than last. The Jets are the darlings of the division at 9.5 after only going 7-10 last year. Much of the increase is the assumption that QB Aaron Rodgers is back and healthy for opening day.
The two top teams in the division are each projected to win fewer games than last year. The Bills and Dolphins each won 11 games last year. This year, the Bills o/u is set at 10.5, and the Dolphins are at 9.5 wins. I see each team regressing this year. Losing Stefon Diggs will hurt Josh Allen’s offense. And even with everything seemingly going right for the Dolphins, they maxed out with 11 wins, and that was with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. He is always one hit away from missing a month or longer with a concussion.
The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets will go under their o/u win total, and there is a great chance all three teams will tie, coming in with 9-8 records. With Rodgers, the Jets will win more than their seven games last season, but getting to double-digit wins will be tough.
BUFFALO BILLS: The Bills have a solid TE tandem of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and an above-average RB in James Cook. They drafted Keon Coleman and snagged Curtis Samuel. It remains to be seen if the two of them combine for the same stats that Stefon Diggs put up last year by himself: 107 catches, 1183 YDs, and 8 TDs. The team has always been QB-centric, and Allen will have to be an Avenger this season to lead Buffalo to the promised land.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Not to cross sports, but there is a term regarding teams who “run it back,” that’s exactly what the World Champion Boston Celtics did this offseason, basically bringing everyone back for a defense of their title. The Dolphins did the same thing on the offensive side of the ball and didn’t win a championship. All they did was have a nice regular season. There aren’t any major additions on offense other than a well, past his prime, Odell Beckham Jr. The team should still put up video game numbers, but banking on Tua Tagovailoa to play 17 games is asking a lot.
NEW YORK JETS: Aaron Rodgers was given two new offensive pieces, drafted in the third and fourth rounds. They grabbed WR Malachi Corley in the third round and RB Braelon Allen in the fourth. Each may be a productive addition, but neither is currently listed as a starter. It will be amazing to see how Rodgers connects with RB Breece Hall, one of the league’s best pass-catching RBs, and Garrett Wilson, one of the more under-the-radar and under-appreciated WRs in the league. It will also be a treat to see Rodgers getting the ball to newly acquired WR Mike Williams. In 2019, Williams averaged 20.4 YDs per catch and had 1004 passing YDs. In 2021, he caught 76 passes for 1146 passing YDs and nine TDs.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Last season, Vegas had the Patriots o/u set at 6.5, and they went 4-13. Vegas has them at 4.5 this season, and I think they’ll win six games. It’s awfully difficult to win only four games. It’s even more difficult to win two years in a row. The QB room is better than it was last year. Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye will be more cohesive than Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were last season. The coaching staff will be more stable, even with the loss of Bill Belichick. The defensive side of the ball is still solid, and second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez is back healthy. And the team does have some decent offensive tools, with RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Second-year WR DeMario Douglas will start the year healthy, as should Kendrick Bourne. They re-signed TE Hunter Henry and drafted WR Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round. Not that 6-11 will be great, but it will be an improvement.
