The first question we must answer before determining how to handle team defense in our yearly league is, “Do team defenses matter?” Your league mates will typically answer this question with one of two extremes. Bob might roll his eyes and say, “Let the noobs chase last year’s top defense. I’ve been playing fantasy football since 92, and if there is one thing I’ve learned, it’s to draft your defense in the last two rounds. If the league didn’t make me take one, I wouldn’t draft one at all! Defense is all about matchups. I’ll stream my defenses all year.” Before Bob finishes his rant, Steve whispers in your other ear, “Don’t listen to that guy. He’s been finishing last since 92. Have you seen (fill in the top defense from last season?) They’re loaded! I had them on all my teams last year and made the playoffs in every league.”
Who is right? Should you stream your way to glory? Or draft the top defense in the 14th round? Let’s look at some data.
Using a standard scoring structure for a 12-team league, the top defense in 2023 (per fantasypros.com) scored 166 points (10.4 per game). The 12th-ranked defense scored 127 points (7.9 per game). Those same numbers were 186 points (10.9 per game) versus 117 points (6.9 per game) in 2022 and 185 points (10.9 per game) versus 121 points (7.1 per game) in 2021. The top defense over the past three seasons has averaged 179 points (10.5 per game), and the 12th-ranked defense has averaged 121 points (7.1 per game). If you had played the top defense versus the 12th-ranked defense over the past three seasons, you would have netted about 3.5 points per game advantage. Using the same method (half-point PPR scoring) at the other “onesie” positions, the difference would have been about eight points per game at QB and six points at TE over the past three seasons. While no one will argue that defenses should be prioritized like elite QBs or TEs, the advantage you get from having the top-scoring defense versus the 12th-scoring defense is undoubtedly significant.
Does that mean Steve is right? Should you chase last year’s top defense in the 14th round? Not exactly. The top-scoring QBs and TEs are relatively predictable year-over-year, and the top-scoring defense is highly volatile. You don’t need to look further than 2022’s top fantasy defense (the Patriots), who finished as the 23rd fantasy defense in 2023, to see the problem with over-drafting a defense. That year-over-year fall would be rare at any other position without an injury. So, if it’s challenging to predict defensive scoring based on last year’s results, is Bob right? Is it best to draft your defense in the 19th round? Not exactly. Let’s examine the pros and cons of each approach.
Fantasy football veterans commonly employ Bob’s strategy. They’ve played long enough to have chased a top defense at some point and gotten burned. It’s also a strategy that is often advocated for by fantasy experts. In fairness, streaming defenses has merit. The opportunity cost is low. This strategy involves drafting a defense in one of the last two rounds, so you’re not giving up much if you get it wrong. You’ll also be dropping and picking up defenses all year, which makes getting the defense you pick correct even less critical. Many people who use this strategy will try to draft a defense with good week 1-2 matchups, assuming they’ll drop their defense in short order. It is accurate that defensive scoring output is highly matchup-driven, the basic idea fueling a streaming strategy. The cons? Since streaming defense is advocated for by many fantasy experts and used by fantasy veterans, there is a good chance you won’t be the only person in your league trying to go this route. That means there will be competition for the “defense of the week” on waivers.
You might spend more waiver dollars on defenses throughout the year than you’d like and, some weeks, get frozen out entirely. These weeks, your team might get stuck starting a weak defense against a good offense, which is never a recipe for success. There is also the time commitment of streaming. Not everyone wants to have to play the waiver wire every week. To successfully execute a streaming strategy, you’ll need to study the matchups and make roster moves on a weekly basis. Since there is a risk of getting outbid for the defense of the week, you’ll need to place bids on multiple defenses to make sure you don’t get stuck. A lot of players who want to stream will even plan 2-3 weeks ahead. That means to keep up, you’ll need to spend a lot of time looking at matchups and placing bids. That’s not for everyone. Our daily newsletter, The Daily Dose, will have top streaming defenses each week to help you with those decisions. Another way to dominate with this strategy is to stay a week or two ahead of things and add defenses before the week when everyone wants to pick them up. This generally means consistently carrying two defenses on your roster, so it is usually only viable in leagues with larger benches.
