The Josh Allen-led Bills offense was one of the better ones in the NFL in 2023, finishing 6th in points per game. It really took off after Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator in Week 11. After this switch, the Bills became a run-first offense, averaging 27 points per game. The Bills offense will have a decidedly different look in 2024 as Allen’s top two wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, are no longer with the team. Diggs was shipped off to the Texans via trade, while Davis signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. The big question will be how Allen and Brady adapt to the changes in personnel, particularly the loss of the reliable #1 receiving target in Diggs.
Allen has always been somewhat of an erratic passer, which is masked by his rushing ability. He rushed nearly ten times per game with Brady as the OC, a trend that should continue in 2024. Brady’s offense also emphasized shorter throws as opposing defenses tried to prevent the rifle-armed Allen from beating them with deep throws. Allen stayed patient in 2023, completing 50 more passes under 10 yards of the line of scrimmage than he did in 2022. Allen will need to continue this in 2024, especially with new veteran receivers in Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Keon Coleman. Allen will once again be a high-end QB1 in 2024, as his rushing yards greatly supplement his passing game. Allen also often acts as the lead goal-line running back, adding to his TD totals.
Cook will once again be the lead RB for the Bills in 2024, backed up by promising 4th round draft pick Ray Davis. Cook made a big jump in 2023, totaling 1,567 total yards. At 25 years old, Cook is in his prime. With Brady emphasizing the running game, Cook could see an uptick in carries in 2024. The biggest obstacle to Cook’s fantasy success is the potential lack of red zone carries taken from him by Allen. If Cook gets an increase in these opportunities, he could vault into the RB1 conversation, but he is best to be drafted as your RB2 for now.
Buffalo signed Samuel in free agency so he could reunite with OC Joe Brady, whom he played for in Carolina. Samuel can be used in a multitude of ways and is normally undervalued in fantasy drafts, carrying an 8th-round ADP. Look for him to lead the Bills receivers in receptions.
It took him a few years, but Shakir asserted himself into the Bills plans and now is expected to be their WR2. He is phenomenal after the catch and has terrific hands. He makes for a great best-ball stack with Allen and Samuel, too, based on his 11th-round ADP.
The Bills drafted the 6 ft 4in., 215 lb Coleman with their first pick of the draft, number 33 overall. The Bills want Coleman to be an immediate contributor to their revamped WR core, but will he be up to the task? Despite his size and great hands, he doesn’t seem to be an exceptional route-runner or have the ability to gain separation in man coverage. He will have to win most of his contested catches to be successful in the NFL. He is still worth drafting as a spec with upside playing with Allen as his QB and the uncertainty at the WR position.
Kincaid has the potential to be a top 5 TE1, as his targets should increase with the departures of both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. As a rookie, Kincaid had 73 receptions for 673 yards, setting the Bills rookie record for receptions. With more of an emphasis on the short passing game and a stud QB throwing to him in Allen, a huge breakout year is certainly in play.
Allen, Cook, and Kincaid should all be safely drafted and deliver high-end production for your fantasy team. Newly signed Curtis Samuel should also deliver WR3 numbers with upside, as his best year came in 2020 with Joe Brady as his OC in Carolina. WR Khalil Shakir is underrated; keep your eye on him as a later-round sleeper pick.
