As I always say, busts can come in many shapes and sizes. They can be rookies entering the league with a ton of hype. They can be veterans showing signs of regression. And they can be players coming off a career year.
Similar to the stock market, the goal of fantasy sports is to buy low. Often, when a player has reached his zenith, it’s time to stay away. They get overhyped and over-bought, driving up their draft ranking. Let the other guy buy-in and overpay. Invariably, many of these players are destined to be busts.
Here are four busts, one from each AFC West team:
Sutton is now in his seventh season with the Denver Broncos. His last three seasons have been very consistent, averaging 60 catches each year. Last season, he caught 10 TD passes, which marked a career-high. He and QB Russell Wilson were definitely in sync…but Wilson is now in Pittsburgh, and Denver has given the keys to the castle to rookie Bo Nix.
In his second season, he caught 72 passes for over 1100 yards and was on a pathway to being considered the best WR in the game. An injury limited him to only one game in 2020, and he’s never really gotten back to that level. At this point in his career, he is a 60-ish pass catcher, but it’s the 10 TDs he scored last season that is so intriguing.
Nix will definitely experience some growing pains. HC Sean Peyton wants a ball-control offense with an emphasis on the running game. They are in the same division as the two-time Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and the defensive-minded Las Vegas Raiders. Peyton doesn’t want to kill his rookie quarterback. Many of those TDs that went to Sutton will be on the ground to RB Javonte Williams.
Sutton is in every top 50 WR list, but his production will end up being closer to 100 than 50. He’ll be hard-pressed to catch 50 passes and will be lucky to get half as many TDs as he had last year. In his four non-injured seasons before last year, he only had 14 career TDs. That’s an average of 3.5 TDs per season, which is where he will be…which will make this season a bust.
It is truly tough to find a bust on this team. If anything, players on this team outperform their expectations year after year. Hollywood Brown has joined the team and will likely have a career year. Despite his off-field issues, Rashee Rice proved to be a dynamic rookie last year. And, they signed yet another exciting rookie WR in the first round, Xavier Worthy.
The odd man out looks to be 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore. He started over twice as many games last year compared to his rookie season, but his production didn’t increase. His numbers were nearly identical, only catching 21 passes. Last year at this time he was on many sleeper lists, and although his production and role on the team may not have ever been big enough to be considered a bust. But he was a second-round pick for the back-to-back champions, with the game’s best active QB getting him the ball. Moore is at risk of getting cut completely…that makes him a bust.
White was a solid RB2 last season, but it remains to be seen if he can carry the load as the Raiders RB1. They thought enough of him that Josh Jacobs became expendable. Last season, White played every game, starting in four. He rushed for 451 yards with a TD.
He is currently ranked between 15 and 20 on the RB lists, with high expectations. On some lists, White is actually ranked better than Jacobs, who is now with the Packers. This is insanity; Jacobs has been doing it for years. He’s only 26 years old and has rushed for over 1000 yards in three of his first five seasons. As insurance, the Raiders snagged Minnesota RB Alexander Mattison.
By virtue of being the starter, White’s production will increase compared to last year. But as I said, busts can mean different things for different people depending on their circumstances. As the Raiders RB1, White will be expected to at least gain 1000 yards and a minimum of eight TDs. He’ll realistically be in the 600-750 Yd range, and five TDs would be an accomplishment. The Raiders will find themselves behind on the scoreboard often, leading to them being heavy on the pass game which will affect White’s overall production.
Johnston is the poster child for “What have you done for me lately?” In his rookie season, Johnston caught 38 passes and had two TDs. The 38 catches for a rookie aren’t problematic; it was the 67 targets he saw from QB Justin Herbert. That equates to a 56.7% catch percentage, which is abysmal.
The team jettisoned WR Mike Williams and RB Austin Ekeler, so Johnston has the opportunity to gain a larger role. But new head coach Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball, and even though Ekeler is gone, they grabbed JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Harbaugh has made his intentions known.
Many will expect Johnston to take that next rung up the ladder, but WR DJ Chark came from Carolina, and they drafted Ladd McConkey in the second round in this year’s draft. That is never a vote of confidence for a young receiver. Johnston’s numbers will remain stagnant, and based on the higher expectations, he will prove to be a bust this season.
