Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Conviction is a blessing and a curse. Having conviction gets you places in life. Decision-making in its finest form, the art of being confident and decisive, can be powerful. The older we get, however, the conviction becomes sharper. We learn each day, each week, month, and year of our lives. As we build experiences, we understand what’s right, what’s wrong, and then over time can make quicker, faster decisions and have stronger convictions on minor or major events. Unpacking why we have convictions is the real test. It should always start with “why”? The testing of convictions is the only real way to know whether those convictions are founded or unfounded. Of course, the reason why I bring this up is that I feel strong convictions about these games on Saturday and Sunday. But unlike my younger self, I’m going to challenge these and test them before blindly following my instincts. Instincts are good, conviction is better, but grounded predictions based on fact and plausibility rule it all.
Look, I like the Rams here like everyone else, but we shouldn’t overlook the fact that they went 3-3 over their last six games of the season, with two of those three wins coming against the Cardinals. In Week 13, the first game of this stretch, the Panthers beat them 31-28 in Carolina, which so happens to be the exact setup of this playoff game. Fast forward six weeks, and now the fifth-seed Rams are installed as 10+ point favorites on the road in Carolina. Getting Davante Adams back will certainly help, but to expect Stafford, Puka, and McVay to go into Carolina and completely stomp seems more unrealistic than expecting the Panthers to hang around.
Dave Canales seems like a good coach. If he is, he likely won’t be deploying the same game plan they did in their Week 13 win against these Rams. Why? Because logic says that while Carolina did some great things in that game, like forcing the ball away from Puka, the Rams should be expected to adjust and come into this game with answers. Not to mention the pick-six return touchdown from the Carolina defense in that game, which you cannot count on repeating. Enter the rushing attack this week. The proven way to slow down an opposing offense is to keep them off the field. Dowdle has been closer to a 60/40 split with Chuba Hubbard in recent weeks, but he had some monster box scores earlier in the season, and Canales was not afraid to ride him. After getting gashed by Bijan Robinson in Week 17, and despite the weak Cardinals rushing attack in Week 18, it’s the Rams who actually are the worst in the NFL over the last three games in rushing yards allowed per attempt. It’s a small sample, but Dowdle could be the answer to the Panthers hanging around in this matchup.
