Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
“You’re going to need to score a lot of points to win this week.”
A direct quote this week from our founder, JM, in his Inner Circle Discord channel, JM’s Journal. There’s nothing complicated about this statement, and maybe it doesn’t ring true. But I couldn’t agree with him more.
Week 1 is unpredictable, unsteady, and unconscious at times because we truly don’t know what will happen. Week 1 is when you get the second and third-year players who show signs of a breakout coming. It’s when you get the rookies bursting onto the scene (I remember Cam Newton’s 2011 debut against Arizona very well, and how about Marquise Brown in 2019 at Miami?). Week 1 is when you get new faces in new places, making an impact (Randy Moss in New England in 2008). It’s when we get some old heads starting to show inevitable decline. It’s when we are greeted by the ugly truth of injuries happening, and at times those leading to roster-winning plays (Elijah Mitchell winning tournaments in 2021 with Raheem Mostert’s injury). To put it simply: Week 1 is the best.
And in Week 1 of an NFL season, the path to success is to find the hidden paths to upside and ditch the conventional thinking. To read the proverbial room and think, “you know what? I don’t agree with that.” Week 1 is when we can be one week early, and it becomes normalized a few weeks later (think David Johnson in his first few seasons in 2015 and 2016). If you see a trend developing in training camps and the offseason, and it seems the sites, touts, and analysts are either late picking it up or not leaning in enough, then there is your opportunity.
So, to justify JM’s quote from earlier this week, there will be a lot of points scored this week and we will need to search for ceiling. We also should use our own thinking to see the paths available, and not worry about our opponent’s lineups on this slate. Why? Because in Week 1, of all the weeks, we have the same limited information as our competition does in building lineups. You ARE going to need a lot of points to win this week. You CAN find those points in just about every game on the slate. And if/when you do find these paths to upside (keep reading for mine!), lean in with all you’ve got because building lineups this week is perhaps the most fun exercise this season.
If you’re new here, Willing to Lose is all about finding the high upside, low likelihood plays (strategies, blocks, players) that can catapult your lineups to the top of the leaderboards. Scroll back up for the best plays on the slate and more, but come here for inspiration throughout the season, and we’ll see what we can uncover in the weeks and months to come!
It’s been 205 days since the Super Bowl, and I get the opportunity again to write this wonderful piece on this wonderful website. And the first player I am going to recommend is new Giants QB Russell Wilson. Yes, we’re back! Mr. Unlimited himself is now on his fourth NFL team in a job he is unlikely to hold through the duration of the 2025 NFL season, and his first game is a divisional opponent on the road, and one who came a game away from the Super Bowl in 2024. Not exactly a matchup that catches the eye. However, Wilson is the starting QB in this game, and he is just $5,000 on DK. He is likely to need to throw the ball a decent amount, considering the Commanders potential on offense and considering the expected low output of the Giants rushing attack. The Commanders also had the second-worst secondary in the NFL last season, and are again projected to be bottom-five (PFF). Wilson is not a name that will be clicked on by many, but he did pop for a 30.9 DK game with the Steelers in Week 13 last season against Cincinnati. The rest of his performances were mostly sub-par, but the Cincy game sticks out to me here because of the propensity of the 2024 Bengals offense and the possibility of the 2025 Washington offense.
Malik Nabers is no stranger to DFS ownership, and he makes this Wilson play a bit more palatable. To finish the 2024 season and with a cast of characters at QB, Nabers went on a tear of 24.2 // 13.8 // 39.1 // 17.4 DK points to solidify one of the best rookie WR seasons we’ve ever seen. Wilson threw his patented moon balls to George Pickens and Calvin Austin in 2024. He gets to throw them this season to Nabers. At $7,000 on DK, and with limited receiving competition, Nabers should be a lock for 10+ targets in a matchup against a defense that can’t cover him, but he shouldn’t garner the ownership of those he’s priced near with the Giants sub-20 point implied total.
Theo Johnson and a Commanders pass-catcher round out this stack. Johnson is the unquestioned every-down tight end for the Giants, after they released Greg Dulcich. His only competition is Daniel Bellinger and Chris Manhertz, who are known for blocking, not running routes. Johnson only scored one touchdown last season, but flashed upside in a part-time role with four games above 10.8 yards per reception. He also finished his season (Week 13) with four straight games with at least five targets. If Wilson hits his ceiling, three touchdowns are going to come along with him, and a 6/70/1 line is fully in Theo’s range of outcomes.
Finally, in order for the Giants to need to push the score, we need the Commanders to score. My gut says to avoid the hot mess of their running back room, as we won’t be able to predict the present there. So that brings us to the inevitability of Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel as the mostly viable Washington pieces. I am willing to guess that the strong Giants front four, with the addition of Abdul Carter, and the price discount you get will push more players toward Deebo over Terry (not to mention the late August contract negotiations), so McLaurin is my preferred target here.
