Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• This is a rematch of a game earlier this season when the Panthers upset the Rams on the back of forcing three turnovers from potential MVP Matthew Stafford.
• The Rams will have all-pro wide receiver Davante Adams back on the field for the first time since he went down with a hamstring injury in Week 15.
• Los Angeles is the only team in the NFL to rank top-5 in DVOA on both offense and defense.
• Carolina plays the highest rate of zone coverage in the league and ranks 31st in QB pressure rate this season.
• This game’s 10-point spread is the only one on Wild Card weekend with a spread greater than four points.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are very straightforward in how they will operate, as they are a well oiled, high-octane offensive machine with a defense that isn’t impenetrable, but is strong enough to give opponents fits and take advantage of when their elite offense forces opponents to try to keep up with them. The Rams lead the NFL in offensive DVOA, yards per play, and points per game. Their offense has been dominant in every possible way this season, and that is especially true when they are at full strength. This week, they get all-pro wide receiver Davante Adams back from a lingering hamstring issue, and they will have both of their primary running backs at full strength as well. Adams and running back Blake Corum have both been practicing in full and help to balance out their offense along with all-world WR Puka Nacua and their stable of versatile tight ends.

The Rams had the second highest pass rate in neutral situations this season, behind only the Chiefs. Veteran QB Matthew Stafford had the best season of his career with his incredible WR duo of Nacua and Adams, along with an impressive cast of complementary pieces around them. Stafford had the third highest average depth of target among NFL QBs while taking only 23 sacks and leading the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and TD rate. This passing game revolves around Puka Nacua’s diverse skill set, and he is in a great spot here to attack a zone-heavy Panthers defense. Adams has been an elite red zone weapon and is used heavily on downfield and in-breaking intermediate routes, although his downfield targets have come up empty in a lot of spots, and he went over 80 receiving yards only twice all season, needing 11 and 13 targets to do so. Stafford makes great use of his running backs and tight ends in the receiving game as well, with the backs being involved on check-downs when necessary, and the tight ends being deployed in a variety of creative ways as the team has increased their multi-TE personnel packages as the season progressed. Colby Parkinson has emerged as their clear top option, while Tyler Higbee returned from injury last week, and rookie Terrance Ferguson has shown big-play ability at times this season. The Panthers ranked 31st in QB pressure rate this season and Stafford should have all day to throw here.

When the Rams do run the ball, they should have success doing so with their dynamic duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Los Angeles leads the league in adjusted line yards per rush attempt and has the most efficient running game in the league. Everything just “fits” for this offense, as their offensive line play holds things together and their passing game threats keep defenses from selling out to stop the run. This is one of the most well balanced offenses we have seen in quite some time, and Stafford’s arm talent and ability to read defenses both pre-snap and post-snap have been dicing up opponents all season. At full strength, it will take a massive effort or self-inflicted mistakes for this Panthers defense to slow down a Rams offense that, on paper, looks like it should be effective doing whatever they want. The first matchup between these teams had three turnovers from Stafford, but that was uncharacteristic, and the team still averaged a massive 7.4 yards per play. If they are able to avoid turnovers, the Rams are highly likely to score 30+ points in this matchup.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs is back to full strength for the first time in several weeks.
• The Packers ended the season on a four game losing streak and have lost multiple key players throughout the season to injury.
• Chicago wide receiver Rome Odunze has missed the last few games, but practiced in full on Thursday and is expected to play.
• These teams split the season series at one game apiece, with both games being decided on the final possession.
• Packers quarterback Jordan Love will return to the lineup after missing the last two and a half games with a concussion.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Green Bay lost its last four games to end the regular season after holding a 9-3-1 record through Week 14 and momentarily sitting as the #2 seed in the NFC. They led in the second half in Denver before star edge rusher Micah Parsons tore his ACL. The Packers went on to lose that game 34-26, and that was just the start of their worries. The following week, they faced Chicago with the division on the line, and quarterback Jordan Love suffered a first-half concussion. Green Bay still led that game most of the way, but a couple of late defensive mishaps, along with a botched onside kick recovery, led to a stunning Bears comeback. Green Bay then lost to backup QB Tyler Huntley of the Ravens and got stampeded by Derrick Henry for over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns, before shutting down their key players to rest during last week’s game in Minnesota. The Packers also lost star tight end Tucker Kraft, who was playing as well as anyone at his position in the league through the first half of the year, to a torn ACL in Week 8 and has battled injuries at the wide receiver position and offensive line all year, while Josh Jacobs spent most of November and December battling ailments. All of this is to put things in context that Green Bay has been reeling recently and is not the team that built up that great record to start the season.

Green Bay is one of the most run-centric offenses in the league, and most of their concepts are built around the idea of a consistent running game putting them ahead of the sticks and building things out from there. The Packers play a relatively methodical style of offense and milk the play clock as they identify blitzes and coverages to maximize their ability to get into the correct play on each down. While this obviously has its advantages, it also results in defenses being fresh, having plenty of time to substitute, and having time to counter and alter their calls when they see the Packers adjusting – resulting in a cat and mouse game at the line of scrimmage quite often. Their methodical approach and run-based game plan can lead to lower scoring games at times, but they are also a team that has some aggressive tendencies. Jordan Love ranked in the top-5 in intended air yards per pass attempt among NFL quarterbacks with over 10 starts for the third straight season, a sign of his willingness to throw down the field on his sometimes limited pass attempts. Head coach Matt LaFleur is also very willing to be aggressive in going for it on fourth down in opponents’ territory, a strategy that has been huge for the team in some spots and came back to bite them in others. Most of his decisions follow the correct analytical approach in this area, but it is interesting and curious because of how conservative he is with some of these other concepts that he is so aggressive on fourth down.

The Packers passing offense has been surprisingly elite, ranking 4th in the NFL in DVOA despite being a relatively low volume unit that ranked 27th in pass attempts this season. They actually led the league in that metric prior to Love’s injury in the last matchup with the Bears and have accomplished this high efficiency without arguably their top weapon (Tucker Kraft) for the last ten weeks. Green Bay’s defense has been struggling in recent weeks, and they are likely to enter this game expecting to need to put up a bigger number to beat the Bears than how this game played out last time, which was largely influenced by the weather. The Packers also are facing a Bears defense that ranks last among NFL playoff teams in yards per play allowed and second to last in DVOA, ahead of only the 49ers. Green Bay’s wide receivers are healthy again, and Josh Jacobs is practicing in full and reportedly feels “by far the best he has in weeks” for this great matchup. The Packers should implement their usual game plan with a familiar and relatively weak defensive opponent on the other side. Look for Green Bay to be aggressive early to try to take control of the game flow and get the Bears away from their own running game, with Jacobs as the focal point and a dynamic passing game built around play action concepts and attacking the Bears in the middle of the field and deep through the air.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The first question on any slate the Bills are on is “does Josh Allen have paths to ‘Super Josh’ being unleashed?”
• The Jaguars averaged 32.8 points per game to end the season following their Week 8 bye. That’s a solid 10-game sample. For comparison, the Rams led the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game for the entirety of the season.
• The Bills conducted a walkthrough Wednesday, but RB Ty Johnson (ankle) and WR Josh Palmer (ankle) were listed as ‘DNP.’ Johnson’s game-day status is of particular intrigue considering his clearly delineated role in this offense.
• The Jaguars are mostly healthy heading into the postseason, although there were three CBs on the Wednesday injury report.
• The Bills ranked 28th in PROE, 31st in pass rate, and averaged the most rush attempts per game, while the Jaguars forced the second-highest PROE while facing only 21.7 rush attempts per game (fewest in the league).
• The Jaguars finished the season with the highest PROE since Week 13, ending with a positive PROE in each of their final six games.
• The Bills led the league in EPA/rush from 11-personnel while deploying that alignment at about league-average rates.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills finished the regular season ranked 28th in PROE, 31st in pass rate (49.45%), and first in rush attempts per game (32.2), giving us a clear display of intent. Quarterback Josh Allen had only two games all season with more than 35 pass attempts. He also put up 47.7 DK points on only 30 pass attempts against the Buccaneers earlier this season, demonstrating his game-breaking (and slate-breaking) upside on modest volume. But the point remains, this team is not looking to the air at great frequency unless they are absolutely forced to do so. That generates an interesting micro matchup considering the Jaguars forced the second-highest PROE while facing the fewest rush attempts per game (21.7) during the regular season. The Bills largely stuck to their static game plan this season, regardless of matchup. Games against pass-funnel opponents like the Patriots (28 and 31 pass attempts), Browns (12 pass attempts), Buccaneers (30 pass attempts) saw fewer pass attempts than we would have otherwise expected due solely to matchup, while Allen’s highest pass attempt marks of the season came either in losses (35 in a 13-12 loss to the Eagles, 34 in a 23-19 loss to the Texans, 40 in a 30-13 loss to the Dolphins) or a shootout (46 in a 41-40, Week 1 win over the Ravens).

Lead back James Cook saw his role ebb and flow based on game environment this season, typically playing a much higher snap rate and seeing more opportunities in games the Bills controlled. He found himself routinely in the 70-80% snap and opportunity range in large wins while falling to the 50-60% range in games the Bills were forced to play from behind. He finished the season as the rushing leader with 1,621 yards, but handled a modest 37.2% carry rate inside the five to go with a middling 3.9% touchdown rate. Much of that was due to Allen’s elevated red zone and green zone roles, with the two eventually tying for fifth in the league in total touchdowns (passing excluded) with 14 scores. The Jaguars present about as difficult a matchup as possible on the ground, ceding the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (18.8) while allowing only 3.9 yards per carry (fifth) and facing the lowest overall rush rate in 2025. Ty Johnson’s status is of particular concern this week, considering the Bills never used to dress three backs that didn’t contribute heavily to special teams, highlighting their trust in Johnson as the best back in pass protection. Ray Davis has never been given much work in that area at the NFL level, making it possible Cook sees a heavier snap rate should Johnson miss with his ankle injury.

Keon Coleman has bounced back and forth between inactive and dressed with the team for game day in the second half of the season, something that Joshua Palmer’s status could influence for Wildcard Weekend. The team added veteran Brandin Cooks following the season-ending injury to Curtis Samuel, the latter of whom will reportedly not see his 21-day practice window activated ahead of their Wildcard game. Either way, expect no fewer than five wide receivers operating in a loose rotation for a team that utilizes its pass-catchers through a “sum of all parts” setup, with no singular player typically playing more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. A typical three-player rotation at tight end amongst Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Jackson Hawes makes eight primary pass-catchers on a given week, something that appears unlikely to change now that the team has reached the postseason. The Bills returned four instances of a pass-catcher hitting the 100-yard threshold all season, with Kincaid accounting for two of those (Khalil Shakir did it once, and Coleman did it once). The Jaguars allowed 32.1 DK points per game to opposing wide receivers (14th most) and 15.0 DK points per game to opposing tight ends (10th most), providing slim paths to upside for the Buffalo pass-catching conglomerate.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• San Francisco is coming off a disappointing week 18 loss to the Seahawks which dropped them from the #1 seed and a bye to a trip to Philadelphia.
• 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and seems to be highly questionable for this matchup, while all-pro tackle Trent Williams has a realistic shot to play after returning to practice Thursday.
• The 49ers have one of the best offenses in the league, but arguably the worst defense among all 14 playoff teams.
• Philadelphia rested their starters in Week 18 and should be healthy and fresh for this home matchup to start their attempt to defend their Super Bowl crown.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers offense has been incredible this season, ranking 2nd in DVOA for the season despite dealing with a litany of injuries over the course of the year. While the offense has dealt with a lot, elite offensive minded head coach Kyle Shanahan has been able to scheme his way through it and keep things ticking. The offensive injuries have been minor compared to the defense, however, as at least the offense’s issues were short-term things while the defense has played almost the entire season without major pieces and they are now down additional bodies after suffering more injuries in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. This is all to lay the groundwork for the reality that if San Francisco is going to pull off the road upset this week, it will likely have to be carried by their offense once again.

The injury issues continue for San Francisco, as WR Ricky Pearsall did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and seems to be highly questionable for this matchup, while all-pro tackle Trent Williams has a realistic shot to play after returning to practice Thursday. Pearsall has been terrific when he has been able to be on the field this year, while Williams is huge for the team’s pass protection and rushing efficiency. They can probably survive without Pearsall, but they might be dead in the water if Williams is unable to play.

As for “how” they will play, the game plan will certainly revolve around all-world RB Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle. The matchup with the Eagles defense is a tough one, but the 49ers have made a habit of finding ways to move the ball in all matchups this season. CMC is likely to touch the ball 25+ times in this spot and be heavily involved in the passing game. Kittle and Jauan Jennings will be the primary physical targets in the short to intermediate areas, while if Pearsall is out we should see a lot of Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson on the perimeter for San Francisco. The Eagles are very strong on the perimeter, so we can expect Kittle and CMC to be the focal points here. The 49ers also know that their defense is leaky at best and even an Eagles offense that has struggled for much of the year will probably be able to move the ball well and score on them. We could see an increased rate of multi-TE personnel groupings from the 49ers if Pearsall is out as they may try to slow things down and simply get to the fourth quarter in a close game and banking on the Eagles beating themselves in crunch time.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Chargers enter the postseason as one of the more banged-up teams in the league, probably only outdone by the Packers.
• RB Omarion Hampton did not practice Wednesday due to his ankle injury, indicating his absence from the lineup in Week 18 was much more than simply a player resting.
• OLB Bud Dupree (hamstring), LB Del’Shawn Phillips (hamstring), and S Kendall Williamson (ankle) were also absent Wednesday. S Elijah Molden (hamstring) was listed as limited while CB Benjamin St-Juste was not listed on the injury report.
• And then there’s the team’s offensive line, which continues to be without both starting offensive tackles and now has backup Jamaree Salyer on the injury report. C Bradley Bozeman should return from his concussion for the playoffs.
• The Patriots appear to be getting healthy at the right time, with the only player listed as a ‘DNP’ Wednesday for any reason other than an illness being DL Khyiris Tonga (foot).

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

It has really been a tale of three seasons for the Chargers this year. They started the year ranked first in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the first four weeks before injuries began to pile up along their offensive line. They then went through Weeks 5-11 with a pass-balanced approach after Omarion Hampton’s injury in Week 5, with an offense focused on utilizing the pass as an extension of the run, emphasizing the short areas of the field due to the injuries to their offensive line. They remained down their top two offensive tackles to finish the season in addition to other injuries to both their center and one guard but got back Hampton in Week 14, ranking 18^th in PROE between Weeks 14 and 17 before resting starters for their final regular-season game. Quarterback Justin Herbert attempted 32 passes or fewer in each of those final four games – a 22-19 win over the Eagles, a 16-13 win over the Chiefs, a 34-17 win over the Cowboys, and a 20-16 loss to the Texans. In fact, Herbert has not attempted more than 33 passes in a game since Week 7. Consider the Chargers a run-balanced team with a propensity to take a more reserved offensive approach due to a defense holding opponents to the ninth-fewest points per game (20.0). That said, those tendencies could get thrown on their head should Hampton be unable to suit up after missing practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury. He is reportedly set to practice Thursday “in some capacity,” meaning I would expect him to also play “in some capacity” Sunday.

Hampton started the season by seeing a 79% snap share or higher in three of his first four games before being injured in Week 5. He then worked his way back into game shape slowly upon his return, culminating in an 81% snap rate in Week 17, before being held out with other starters in the regular-season finale in Week 18. A missed practice to start preparations this week hinted that his ankle injury was more serious than was initially relayed, making it less likely he sees another borderline workhorse role in the Wild Card Round. That said, a full showing Friday could shift those thoughts more towards a robust role, something we’ll need to pay attention to as the weekend draws nearer. Either way, the pure rushing matchup is far from ideal against a Patriots team holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry (13^th) and 19.9 DK points per game (seventh). Kimani Vidal is on hand to soak up any work Hampton can’t carry, while Jaret Patterson would be the player to serve in a change-of-pace role in the unlikely event Hampton can’t go entirely.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

Another circumstance that altered the team’s approach during the season was the emergence of rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden, who took on an increased role in Week 6 before bursting onto the scene in Week 7 with a massive 7-164-1 effort. As we’ve discussed previously this season, his breakout has come at the expense of Keenan Allen, considering an overlapping role. Allen primarily operates as a key down specialist in this offense now, confined to third downs and the two-minute drill. Rookie receiver Tre’ Harris is the best run-blocking option at wide receiver, something that has kept his role in the offense tangible throughout the season. The team’s tendencies between Weeks 14 and 17 probably give us the best fidelity regarding how we expect them to behave in the postseason, during which time Ladd McConckey (87.2% route participation) and Quentin Johnston (80.2%) were the only two pass catchers to be in a route on more than 66% of the team’s dropbacks (Gadsden), with Allen (62.4%) and Harris (46.3%) rounding out the primary contributors. Tyler Conklin feel almost entirely out of favor following the return of Will Dissly, the latter of whom has transitioned back to a primary blocker after being asked to run more routes last season (lowly 16.8% route participation in that final four-week sample). The Patriots filtered additional work to the intermediate middle of the field this season considering the elite-level play from their secondary, which appears in the stats via an increased rate of production given up to opposing tight ends. 

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The only ‘DNP’ on the Pittsburgh injury report Thursday was RB Jaylen Warren (illness). I would not expect the illness to influence his ability to suit up on Monday.
• The Houston offense is mostly healthy outside of third-string RB Jawhar Jordan, who missed Thursday’s practice with an ankle injury. Also notable are injuries to three starting offensive linemen, with OG Tytus Howard the only one of which missed practice entirely on Thursday (ankle). T Trent Brown was limited and Aireontae Ersery was a full go.
• CB Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee) and DT Denico Autry (knee) also did not practice Thursday for the Texans.
• This game carries the lowest game total of Wild Card Weekend for good reason.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Texans rank sixth in plays per game (64.0), 10^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), eighth in pass attempts per game (34.2), and 13^th in rush attempts per game (27.9), with much of that due to a defense allowing the second-fewest yards per game (279.1), the second-fewest points per game (17.4), and the fourth-fewest opponent plays per game (57.9) this season. From a macro perspective, the Texans have been one of the teams most closely aligned with the game environment when considering offensive play-calling tendencies, hovering right around neutral in PROE while also altering their pace of play more than most teams, dependent on game environment. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has six full games with 29 pass attempts or fewer and six games with 30 pass attempts or more this season, getting as high as 49 pass attempts in a loss to the Seahawks in Week 7. Add in the three starts by Davis Mills and the two games of combined quarterback play (one where Stroud was injured and one in Week 18 with Stroud resting in the second half) and the team is left with nine games of 30 or more pass attempts and eight games with 30 or fewer. Consider the Texans a pass-neutral team, with it obvious that an underperforming offensive line and uncertain running back rotation the key reasons I think they have taken that approach in offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s first season at the helm.

Rookie running back Woody Marks clearly gives this team the best chances at an efficient run game. That should come with little surprise considering we’re comparing him to veteran Nick Chubb after yet another major knee injury, veteran journeyman Dare Ogunbowale, and practice-squad back Jawhar Jordan, the latter of whom did not see NFL action until Week 15 (and is now injured). Ogunbowale is a pure change-of-pace/passing specialist, Jordan missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury and carries an uncertain status into the weekend, and Chubb has not had anywhere near the same juice in 2025. That’s effectively a long way of saying that Marks has paths to borderline (if not full-on) workhorse usage in the postseason after seeing a 66% snap rate or higher in five of his last six fully healthy games to end the regular season (injured in Week 15, missed Week 16, and departed with starters in the second half of Week 18). The problem for us is that he peaked at just 16.1 DK points in those six games. In fact, Houston backs averaged only 3.9 yards per carry this season, 29^th in the league ahead of only the 49ers, Saints, and Raiders. As we’ve been reminded at multiple points this season, volume and touchdowns are king at the running back position, and Marks would seem to have a clear path to both in this spot. The matchup is middling on paper against a Steelers team allowing 4.3 yards per carry (15^th) and 20.4 DK points per game to opposing backfields, including the fewest total touchdowns allowed to the position this season (seven).

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

Weeks 9 to 17 give us the clearest snapshot of late-season tendencies for the Houston pass catchers as it includes games with all of Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, Jaylin Noel, and Dalton Schultz healthy and active. Collins (84.8%) and Schultz (78.9%) were the only two players with a route participation greater than 55% in that sample, with a clear lean into a “stars then rotation” structure. Higgins (1.88) joins Collins (2.68) and Schultz (1.47) as the only three pass catchers with a yards per route run (YPRR) greater than 1.21 (Noel), although Noel ran only 97 routes in that nine-game sample. Those three were also the only three pass catchers with a targets per route run (TPRR) greater than 0.17 (0.25 for Collins, 0.23 for Higgins, and 0.22 for Schultz). Nothing in those profiles other than the 2.68 YPRR mark for Collins is elite, making the lot largely “touchdown or bust” bets for fantasy purposes. The Steelers have been susceptible to tight ends over the intermediate middle of the field and to deep passing, keeping all three primary contributors in play in a GPP setting. 

HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::