XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 11 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Patriots for a 43.5 total game in which New England is favored by a massive 13.5 points. This feels not unreasonable, frankly, as the Patriots are 8-2 with Drake Maye playing at a near-MVP level, while the Jets are 2-7, just traded two defensive starters, and now Garrett Wilson is hurt again. Oh, and the Jets haven’t named their starting quarterback. Yikes.

NEW ENGLAND

On the Pats side, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to practice this week and is currently listed as questionable, which would throw the backfield into some confusion if he plays. It’s unclear if he will. Terell Jennings is also questionable, and the Pats signed Jonathan Ward to their practice squad, which seems to imply that at least one of these guys misses. TreVeyon Henderson has played incredibly well in Rhamondre’s absence, racking up over 200 scrimmage yards in the last two weeks despite tough matchups while playing 75% and 84% of the offensive snaps, which are the top two most snaps played by any Patriots RB this season. He’s clearly built some trust, and he’s clearly better than Rhamondre, so it seems likely to me that even if Stevenson returns, he takes a back seat to Henderson at this point in the season. But that could be wrong, as Rhamondre has been pretty bad all year, and the Pats still left him in the lead back role until he got hurt. And even if it’s right, Rhamondre could still soak up more RB2 work than Jennings has in the last couple of weeks. If Rhamondre is out, Henderson looks like a total smash play as a huge home favorite who also has some passing game chops. If Rhamondre is in, Henderson is still viable, just riskier. Rhamondre himself is basically unplayable as anything except a highly contrarian GPP dart throw (unless we get some word from beat reporters that gives us clarity as to his role), while Jennings would be playable as an RB2 if he’s active and Rhamondre is out.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Drake Maye has been incredible, but it’s been tough to predict who he brings along with him in a given game. Maye will be the highest owned player in this one, and he deserves to be, but then things get tricky. Stef Diggs is still highly talented, but he’s priced at $9,800, like a WR1 despite only running a route on 71% of Maye’s dropbacks and has just a 22% target share, far below where most ~$10k WRs in Showdown land. Kayshon Boutte returned to a limited practice, and if he plays, it throws more chaos into the Pats WR situation. Boutte is also talented and has 5 touchdowns on the season, but just a 12.5% target share. At $8k, that’s a tough spot to play. Mack Hollins is playing a ton of snaps but has generally not been a major target earner in his NFL career, though in the Pats last three games, he has target counts of 7, 2, and 10; but, in their first seven games, he was averaging exactly 2 targets per game before this surge. Demario Douglas had a huge game in Week 9 with a 4/100/1 line, but on just 24% of the snaps, and then he predictably disappeared again last week with 2 targets. Kyle Williams saw his snaps surge last week to a season-high 56% and caught a 72-yard touchdown, but on just 2 targets. This group has a near-Bills-like level of unpredictability. How I see it is that Diggs is the safest option, and while he’s overpriced, he’s at least consistently earning targets while on the field. My next favorite is probably Hollins, as he has a solid combination of volume and price. Boutte and Douglas are both significantly overpriced, while Williams is playable as a dart throw.

At tight end, Hunter Henry started off the season pretty hot but hasn’t reached double-digit DK points since all the way back in Week 4. There are just so many other pass catchers available on this offense! Since his huge Week 3 against the Steelers, Henry is averaging only about 4 targets per game, but at least the price is solid. At $5,400, he’s priced around Hollins, and I would lean Henry over Hollins (especially with TE2 Austin Hooper almost certain to miss with a concussion). Jack Westover will take over TE2 duties, but he’s been a blocker so far and doesn’t have a target yet on the year – he’s a desperation punt. This pass catching corps is hard to figure out, and it’s not helped by the fact that the Pats have been averaging under 30 pass attempts per game. Diggs, Henry, and then Hollins are my favorites overall (though Hollins loses the most if Boutte returns, I think), while everyone else is in dart-throw territory.

NEW YORK

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Showdown aficionados are just loving the NFL right now as we get more and more International games, which means more and more Showdowns. This week, we have the Commanders and Dolphins playing in Madrid, Spain (an NFL first!) with a 47.5 team total, and the Dolphins, interestingly, are favored by 2.5 points. It’s not often that the 3-7 Dolphins have been favored this season, especially against a team that made the playoffs last year (and even knocked out the Lions!), but the Commanders are also 3-7 and have been something of a dumpster fire without Jayden Daniels. This could be one of those ugly game shootouts between two bad teams who can’t stop much on defense, or it could be a situation of “bad offenses are bad and do bad things.” 

MIAMI

I doubted De’Von Achane last week to my detriment (though to be fair, all the data backed me up) as he put up 174/2 on the ground and 6/51/0 through the air on 28 total running back opportunities. Roughly 100 yards and the 2 scores (and my GPP lineups dying) came on 2 giant runs at the end of the game, as otherwise the Bills had bottled him up for roughly ~70 yards on 20 carries. This is a perfect example of Achane in a nutshell: good defenses can certainly stop him (and let’s remember he’s still only put up two really good scores in 10 games), but he can also break free and score from anywhere at any time. His robust passing game role (5+ targets in all but two games) boosts his floor as he’s scored no fewer than 12.8 DK points in a game this season. On main slates, he’s the kind of highly volatile player I tend to stay away from at high ownership, but on a Showdown slate, he has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any player in this game. He’s also extremely expensive and will probably be the highest owned player in the game as well. On paper, he’s the best play, but games aren’t played on paper. Do what you will with this info…you can make a case for fading the highest owned player in a Showdown because football is volatile, or you can just say, “he’s the best play, I’m playing him and will differentiate elsewhere.” At RB2, Ollie Gordon appears to have lost his job, playing just 3 snaps with 1 carry last week as Jaylen Wright handled 5 carries on 10 offensive snaps. There isn’t a lot of workload to go around here behind Achane, but if you’re going to play into this spot, Wright looks like a better bet than Achane.

In the passing game, Jaylen Waddle has looked the part of a real alpha since Tyreek Hill was hurt. In six games, he has 82+ receiving yards in five of them with 3 touchdowns and 14.2 or more DK points (the sixth game was a disaster against Cleveland in which the Dolphins lost by 25 points, so I’m willing to throw that one out). He’s largely been getting there on modest volume with target counts ranging between 6-9 in those games, but he’s also caught a 24+ yard pass in all of those games – something that wasn’t really part of his game when playing alongside Tyreek. He’s finally been priced up to where he should be at $10.6k, which adds a little extra risk to his profile given the most volume, but the Miami offense has really just revolved around Waddle and Achane, and that’s about it. Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are splitting WR2/WR3 work (with the Dolphins also running a lot of heavy personnel sets with a fullback) – their snaps have ranged from the 60-70% mark to around the 50% mark. Target volume for Washington has ranged from 3-5 targets per game, mostly short area stuff (he only has 1 catch over 20 yards on the year), while NWI has mostly been running empty routes with just 13 targets in the six post-Tyreek games. Washington’s price has finally crept up to appropriate levels, and at his season-high $6,200 salary, I’d view him as a bit overpriced for his role. The offense really leans on Achane + Waddle, and then the Commanders are most vulnerable to deep passing, which hasn’t really been how Washington has been used. NWI is a dart throw, as is Cedric Wilson, who has played between 22% and 32% of the snaps in the last three games, but with just 2 targets to show for it. At the bare minimum $200, I think Wilson is worth some exposure in tournaments because he lets you build some really strong lineups, but just be aware his floor is literally zero.

At tight end, Julian Hill is off the injury report and should be making his return, while Tanner Conner has been sent to the practice squad, leaving Greg Dulcich and Hayden Rucci as their other tight ends. I expect Rucci will barely play, and he doesn’t even have a target on the year anyway, so he can probably be left alone. Hill is not a very exciting pass catcher, but he does have a game of 5 targets on the year, and he’s averaged 3.3 targets/game since Tyreek was hurt, so he at least has some semblance of floor. At $1,600, he’s a reasonable floor-but-little-ceiling value option. Dulcich is the more talented pass catcher of the tight ends, and while his snaps are uncertain, he has a lot more upside per target when on the field. I like him, as I’m hopeful that Hill’s return will keep people off of him. He’s risky but has some actual ceiling for his salary. 

WASHINGTON

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Rico Dowdle once again started preparations with an absence, missing Wednesday’s practice with the same quad injury he has dealt with for two weeks.
• WR Drake London was not spotted at the early portions of practice on Wednesday due to an illness. He should be good to go come Sunday.
• London has been nothing short of elite with Michael Penix under center this season, and he gets a further boost to his underlying metrics via the heavy Cover-3 rates deployed by the Panthers.
• These two teams deploy the most (Falcons) and third most (Panthers) Cover-3 this season, effectively forcing opponents to march the field while limiting explosives.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers now rank dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after a string of six games in which they were over two standard deviations below neutral four times. Since Week 4 and with Bryce Young healthy for the entirety of the game (Week 5, 6, 9, and 10), the team has averaged just 25 pass attempts per game against 31.5 team rush attempts per game, with three of those games being wins. This is now a team that would prefer to shield Young, who has vastly underperformed his expectations for all but the second half of his sophomore campaign, if they can help it. Their defense has also turned a corner of late, holding three of their previous four opponents to 17 points or fewer. We have to take that with a slight grain of salt, as those opponents were the Saints, a struggling Packers team, and the Jets. Suffice to say, the Panthers intend to keep things slow-paced, methodical, and on the ground for as long as they are allowed to.

Dowdle has now assumed the lead back role for the Panthers four times this season (Weeks 5, 6, 9, and 10). In those games, he has averaged 27.75 opportunities per game, seen 21 opportunities or more in every game, and scored 31.1 DK points or more in three of four, averaging 29.7 DK points per game in that sample. Another evolution for the Panthers as the season has progressed is an increase in 12-personnel utilization after starting the season playing primarily from 11-personnel, which makes sense considering how many combined games have been missed by Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker (eight). Of note for this backfield is the fact 562 of Dowdle’s 572 yards in the four games where he operated as the lead back have come on first or second down, while he averages a robust 6.42 yards per carry on totes on first down in that span. The key for this team is to stay ahead of the chains to refrain from long down-and-distance situations. The Falcons have allowed a robust 4.5 yards per carry on first down and 5.07 yards per carry overall since their Week 5 bye, while the matchup in the trenches yields a top-five on-paper spot for the Panthers considering a robust 2.28 net-adjusted yards allowed before contact per attempt.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The expected snap-rate bump for second-year receiver Coker materialized in Week 10, although it came in a loss to the Saints. I would expect the Panthers to start the game with a heavy base, focused on 12-personnel on early downs. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan then becomes the only pass catcher we can expect a near every-down role from, with Legette, Coker, Tommy Tremble, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Mitchell Evans all playing package roles for as long as the Panthers either keep the game close or play with a lead, and avoid long down-and-distance situations. Although McMillan handily leads the teams in most underlying metrics, he has seen double-digit targets only twice and has failed to amass more than 10 looks in a game this season, leaving this team largely bereft of difference-making pass catchers for fantasy purposes. Furthermore, Young has not attempted more than 30 passes in a game since Week 2. That remains highly unlikely to change here.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Both RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin managed back-to-back limited sessions to start the practice week for the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen if either will return to the game-day roster this week (both are currently labeled as doubtful), but it’s a step in the right direction.
• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) has yet to practice this week and seems to be trending towards an absence.
• WR Joshua Palmer appears set to make his return to the game-day roster for the Bills after missing the previous three games.
• The Bills really struggle to defend man/gap run concepts, behind which Sean Tucker leads the Buccaneers in all meaningful metrics this season. Just an interesting stat grab, if nothing else.
• The likeliest scenario in this game likely leaves a lot to be desired in a fantasy setting, but we know both of these teams carry significant upside should things break just right.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers are winning in a far different way this season than they have in recent history, with Todd Bowles’ defense the biggest contributing factor to their successes. Well, that and some fourth-quarter heroics from quarterback Baker Mayfield, which willed this team to a 4-1 start to the season, with each win including a two-minute drive to either walk it off or take the lead with under a minute to play. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed the lowest explosive pass rate while forcing the fourth-highest opponent PROE and the eighth-highest opponent pass play rate (60.65%). We have seen the defense struggle a bit more on the ground from an explosive run rate allowed perspective (slightly elevated 5.0% explosive run rate allowed), but they are still holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry on the year. Offensively, the team has been forced to the air more than they would otherwise like due to the sheer number of close games they have found themselves in this season (34.7 pass attempts per game), with Mayfield averaging 15.4 pass attempts per game in the first half and 19.3 per game after the break.

Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s offense loves man/gap concepts, utilizing that blocking scheme on over 65% of their carries this season. It is at least a tad bit interesting to me that Sean Tucker leads the team in yards per carry behind man/gap concepts this season (4.37), also leading the team (by far) in explosive run rate (6.3%). The Bills have allowed a robust 5.58 yards per carry against man/gap concepts this season, fourth highest in the league, and have allowed an explosive run at the fourth highest rate (8.2%). Schematically speaking, it would make a lot of sense for the Buccaneers to give Tucker additional work, considering the biggest weakness of the Buffalo defense. We clearly don’t know if that will happen here, and it could be a moot point should Bucky Irving return, but I think it bears consideration in an MME setting. Compare those numbers to the 1.1% explosive run rate of Rachaad White and his 3.81 yards per carry behind man/gap, and it becomes pretty clear where the upside case from this backfield lies.

The Buccaneers have played four games without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season. In those four games (Weeks 6, 7, 8 and 10), it’s actually tight end Cade Otton that leads the team in receiving (238 yards to the 232 of Emeka Egbuka) and YPRR (1.93 to the 1.87 of Egbuka), while it’s Tez Johnson that leads the team in FP/RR (0.47). That isn’t meant to take away anything from the standout rookie, simply highlight the fact that the floor is likely lower than most people’s perception. That said, the Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (6.2) while utilizing elevated rates of zone coverage and nickel packages, and Egbuka handily leads the team in underlying metrics in both splits. Ebuka wrecks against Cover-3, specifically, and the Bills run Cover-3 at an elevated 32% frequency this season (0.29 TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 0.47 FP/RR) and have been near league average in explosive pass rate. Egbuka clearly carries the most upside of Tampa’s pass-catchers.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• Titans DT Jeffery Simmons and S Xavier Woods both missed practice Wednesday with hamstring injuries, while DT C.J Ravenell sat out due to an ankle issue. 
• Texans QB C.J. Stroud missed practice Wednesday with a concussion, TE Harrison Bryant missed with a shoulder injury, and S Jalen Pitre also sat out due to a concussion.
• The Titans are the worst team in football by a sizeable margin. They do nothing well. 
• Cam Ward looks like a bust, but to be fair, his supporting cast is so bad it’s hard to judge him accurately. 
• Calvin Ridley might return this week, but the Titans’ passing game has the worst matchup in the league.
• The Titans backfield is a mind-numbing split, but even if you could predict who gets more work, they’re still likely to fail in this matchup.
• Davis Mills is cheap for a guy who threw the ball 45 times last week, but most of that was due to game script.
• Nico Collins has seen double-digit targets for three straight games and is too cheap for his role/talent.
• Woody Marks played 80% of the snaps last week, and the field seems to have not taken notice. 
• The Texans defense is curiously not the most expensive option on the slate. They blanked the Titans in Week 4.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The 4-5 Texans come into Week 11 fresh off a wild 36-29 comeback victory against the Jaguars. The Texans were losing, 29-10, to start the fourth quarter before rattling off 26 unanswered points in the final frame. Last week’s win wasn’t just exciting, it kept the Texans’ season alive. The third AFC wild-card spot is currently shared by the 5-4 Chiefs and Jags. Had the Texans lost, they would almost assuredly have been out of the hunt for a playoff berth, but with a win, they picked up a game on the Jags and are only one game back from sneaking into playoff contention. The Texans have a plus-54 point differential (the Jags are a game ahead in the standings with a minus-15 point differential). The Texans are better than their record, and if they can find a way to make the playoffs, they’ll be a dangerous team. The Texans have been playing slowly (24^th in seconds per play) and leaning on the pass (No. 8 in pass rate over expectation [PROE]). Their pass rate (No. 9 overall) is close to their PROE, which indicates the Texans want to pass and aren’t being pushed by game script. Their slow pace, excellent defense, and inefficient passing attack have caused Texans games to yield the league’s lowest total points per game (39.2). It doesn’t help that their offensive line has been putrid (25^th ranked by PFF). Their best player upfront is RT Tytus Howard, and he is only ranked 49^th at his position out of 76 qualified tackles. The Texans have a lot to play for, but they’ve been winning on defense, and that isn’t likely to change in this game.  

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Titans have been hammered (28^th in DVOA) on the ground and beaten (22^nd in DVOA) through the air. The Titans’ defense has been one of the worst (25^th in total DVOA) in the league, and they are attackable in whatever method their opponents prefer. Stroud missed last week and looks likely to miss his second straight game. The Texans tried to hide Mills at the outset of last week’s game, but they let him cut it loose when they got desperate.  Mills ended with 45 pass attempts, and while it’s unlikely the Texans want to throw that much, it’s nice to see they’re willing to trust Mills if they get behind on the scoreboard. The Titans are unlikely to push the Texans into elevated passing, but crazy things happen in the NFL, and at least it’s a possibility. The Texans should approach this game with a “pass enough to win” mentality. They’re going to throw, but they’ll likely be a lot more conservative than last week. Expect the Texans to be balanced, and to get more run heavy if they take a lead. 

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

This game doesn’t have a ton of appeal for DFS outside of the Texans defense ($3,700) which is somehow only the second-most expensive defense on the slate. The Titans offense looks unplayable, and while the Texans are going to score, it’s difficult to know how, or how much. There is a good chance the Texans will only do enough on offense to win, which isn’t the type of game where big DFS scores usually occur. With that in mind, let’s look at what might be available in this game. 

The Texans Passing Game 

Mills ($4,500) is cheap and the Titans are bad, but the game environment doesn’t lend itself to a big DFS score. Mills is probably better than public perception, but there is no reason to let him air it out in a game where the Titans will be lucky to score more than 10 points. I have a feeling projections will like Mills, and he makes sense at his price in the right game environment, but this isn’t one of those games. If you want to play a cheap QB who could pay off on a per-dollar basis, I understand it, but I’ll leave him alone. Collins ($6,700), Xavier Hutchinson ($3,100), Jayden Higgins ($3,500), Christian Kirk ($3,800), Jaylin Noel ($3,400), and Dalton Schultz ($3,900) are the Texans’ primary pass catchers. That’s a lot of names, but they all played meaningful snaps last week. Collins was the only full time (89% of the snaps) WR. Collins has seen 15 // 11 // 10 targets in the past three weeks and is underpriced for his talent and role. The only issue with Nico is game environment. The Texans probably aren’t going to need to throw much to win. I’m torn on Nico, and he’ll probably make at least one of my tighter builds. The rest of the WRs played between 33% – 57% of the snaps, and they all feel like a crap shoot as to which one might hit on any given week. They’re all cheap, and gun to my head I’d take Higgins, but I’ll look elsewhere to save salary if possible. Schultz has seen 11 // 8 targets the past two weeks, and it looks like Mills likes to lean on his TE. The Titans have been tough (No. 7 in DVOA) against TEs, but there aren’t many guys below $4,000 who have a realistic projection of 7-9 targets. Schultz makes for a nice salary saver at a thin position.  

The Texans Running Game

Marks ($5,400) played a ton (80%) of the snaps last week, which was a huge bump from what he had been doing up to that point of the season. I’m taking that as a sign the coaching staff is giving him the backfield and Nick Chubb will now be relegated to change-of-pace duties. Early projections have Marks coming in around 7% ownership, and if that holds late into the week, he’s going to be a staple of my tighter builds. Maybe the field doesn’t realize how much he played last week? I’m not sure why people wouldn’t be excited for a guy priced affordably, playing a ton of snaps, in a great matchup, on a team who is a touchdown favorite. What am I missing? 

The Titans Passing Game 

Ward ($4,300) is cheap, but he’d have to be $3,000 before I’d consider him, and even then, I probably still wouldn’t play him. He has scored under 10 DK points in over half his games, which is hard to do as a QB. He put up a robust 5.0 DK points in his first matchup with the Texans while throwing for a season low 108 scoreless yards with an interception. He gives you nothing with his legs, and this is the worst matchup for a QB in the league. Hard no. Chimere Dike ($4,100), Elic Ayomanor ($3,900), Van Jefferson ($3,100), Calvin Ridley ($4,700), Chig Okonkwo ($3,400), and Gunnar Helm ($2,600) are the Titans’ pass catchers. Dike and Jefferson were the Titans’ full-time WRs in Week 9, but neither of them did anything with the opportunity. Dike flashed useful DFS games in the two previous weeks, but his floor is zero. Jefferson is a washed journeyman who would be the most likely to lose playing time if Ridley returned. Ayomanor showed promise early in the season, but his snaps fell considerably in Week 9, despite him still leading the team in targets. I’m not interested. Ridley could return this week, but I’m not going to play a guy coming off injury in a horrific matchup. Chig was a popular sleeper coming into the year, and he’s done nothing. Helm looks like he has gained ground on Chig, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get more snaps coming out of the bye. Helm is as punt as punt TEs get, but he is near min priced and should see a handful of targets. If you want to totally punt TE, he’s your guy. Realistically, I’m not going to use anyone from this passing game. 

The Titans Running Game

Tony Pollard ($5,300) and Tyjae Spears ($4,900) are splitting snaps. Pollard got more work in Week 9, Spears got more work in Week 8, Pollard got more in Week 7, and Spears got more in Week 6. I have no clue which guy is going to play the most snaps, but it’s likely that the “winner” still only gets 60% of the backfield share. The Texans are comparatively easier to run against, but they’re still at top-10 run defense.  The Titans have shown that they want to run but will abandon it when they’re behind, and they’re always behind. This is a split backfield, on a bad team, against a stingy defense. No thanks. 

Final Thought

This game has two standout plays in Marks and the Texans’ defense. I have no idea why the Texans’ defense isn’t the most expensive, but I’ll look at it as a gift. Marks isn’t priced for his new role as a feature back, and his early ownership projections seem like the field is overlooking him. I think he’ll catch some steam throughout the week, but unless something drastic happens, Marks is going to be a staple of my tighter builds, often paired with the Texans’ defense. The Texans’ passing game is also interesting, only because everyone is so affordable. I’ll probably do one Mills + Marks + Nico + Schultz + Texans defense stack with no Titans coming back.  The idea being that if the Texans run them over, all those guys could give you good price-considered scores. The Titans are the most inept team in the league, and they’re playing the best defense. I have no interest in anyone on their side. 

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze again went DNP-limited to start the week after doing so in each of the previous two weeks. Both should be fine come Sunday.
• RB D’Andre Swift upgraded from limited to full on Thursday and appears set to continue playing through his groin injury.
• RB Aaron Jones got in two limited sessions through Thursday and should continue to play through his shoulder and toe injuries.
• I still fail to believe J.J. McCarthy is ready to lead a consistent NFL offense. Just does not pass my eye test… yet.
• Another game involving a Brian Flores defense, another game with a wide range of outcomes. 

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::

The Bears are now down to 24^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have vaulted up the ranks in the NFC after rattling off six wins in seven tries following an 0-2 start. They have averaged 33.0 rush attempts and 33.2 pass attempts per game in the five games since their Week 5 bye, with the biggest improvement being the dynamism of head coach Ben Johnson’s play-calling tendencies. They are simply doing a better job at keeping opposing defenses off balance. Johnson still has a long way to go in the development of Williams, but the offense is functioning at a much higher level after their bye. Defensively, the team is allowing 375.7 yards per game (sixth most) while leading the league in total takeaways (20 total, or 2.2 per game) and allowing the fifth-most points per game (27.4). I still think back to earlier in the season when Rich Hribar accurately described this defense as either giving up points or generating a takeaway on almost all of their drives. While games against the Saints and Giants since their bye have helped in the points-allowed category, they have still allowed 42 to the Bengals and 30 to the Ravens in recent weeks, and they allowed the Giants to score 17 in the first 33 minutes before Jaxson Dart departed with a concussion last week. 

The Vikings have operated as a true run-funnel defense, forcing the fifth-highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) while facing the fourth-most rush attempts per game (29.9). The difference between the Vikings and other run-funnel defenses is that they are holding opponents to just 4.2 yards per carry, whereas most other units in the league are allowing elevated per-touch production on the ground. Much of that is due to one of the more dynamic nose tackles in the game in Javon Hargrave, with the defensive scheme ceding only 1.93 yards before contact per attempt on the season. The Bears have erupted on the ground since their Week 5 bye week, now sitting second in the league in yards before contact per attempt (2.25). D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have combined to average 5.96 yards per carry, while Swift leads the league in explosive-run rate since their bye. The backfield has settled into a pure “lead back and change-of-pace back” situation, with Monangai averaging a 40.75% snap rate in the four games where both backs were healthy since Week 6. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate at a massive 42.2% clip. They also generate pressure at the second-highest rate this season (30.3%). That’s important against the Bears due to quarterback Caleb Williams’ distinct struggles in those splits. Williams drops from a baseline of a 60.8% completion rate and 7.29 yards per attempt to a 50.3% completion rate when blitzed and a disgusting 39.1% completion rate when pressured in 2025. His yards per attempt actually increases when blitzed to 8.06 but falls drastically to 4.56 when pressured. This will be a key component of this game, and it will be up to Johnson to minimize the effects of a relentless and dynamic pressure profile through play calling. The Vikings primarily utilize “zone-blitz” concepts, also leading the league in two-high utilization to pair with their hefty blitz rates. Interestingly enough, no Bears pass catcher holds more than a 0.23 TPRR against two-high this season (Olamide Zaccheaus)  or a 20.6% target rate (Odunze), while Odunze and Moore lead the team in underlying metrics when Williams is blitzed. Moore leads the team in production when Williams is pressured, but his metrics are far from inspiring – 0.15 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.45 yards per route run (YPRR). All of that to say, if you were to dream up the ideal defense to give Williams fits, it would probably be this exact form of the Vikings.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Jameis Winston is reportedly set to start for the Giants in Week 11. This is the only logical choice, to be blunt, following Jaxson Dart’s concussion.
• The Giants are down Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, and Dart while the Packers are down Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, and potentially Matthew Golden.
• Josh Jacobs has averaged 24 opportunities per game in the six games he was not slowed by a calf injury.
• The Giants have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (8.7%) but Jacobs has managed a lowly 3.7% explosive-run rate and just 3.75 yards per carry, failing to amass more than 93 yards in every game this season.
• The Packers have lost three games this season, allowing 16 points or fewer in each of those games.
• The Packers have held six of their nine opponents to 18 points or fewer this season.
• WR Darius Slayton did not practice Wednesday after pulling up lame with a hamstring injury in the team’s Week 10 loss. He would return to the game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

Man, I have a legitimate bone to pick with Matt LaFleur. For those that are not familiar with what I’m alluding to, I have been highly critical of his play-calling tendencies for the better part of the previous two seasons, something that came to a head after the Philadelphia defensive line literally called the team’s play on a critical fourth down late in their loss to the Eagles. The structure of individual plays remains borderline elite, but this team is at legitimate risk of not even making the playoffs after holding the No. 1 seed just two weeks ago, and you have to point to the fact that the defense has allowed 16 points or fewer in all three losses, with two of those coming against the Browns and Panthers, as the causal factor in their recent collapse. Now, this isn’t to be all “doom and gloom,” simply to state that the team has a long way to go if they want to make a run at the Super Bowl in yet another quarterback’s age-27 season (remember, they won the Super Bowl when both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers were 27). The offense needs to be more dynamic from down to down, less predictable in situational tendencies, and minimize mistakes in the red zone (Jordan Love had yet another turnover in the red zone against the Eagles). From a macro perspective, this is a run-balanced offense that has become more “extreme run tendencies on early downs” of late, something that, in my mind, needs to change if this team wants to make waves for the remainder of the season.

After three weeks with a subdued snap rate and workload, Jacobs returned to his previously robust role for the Packers against the Eagles. I don’t know if we can fully expect that to continue moving forward, but I think we do have some sort of signal there. Jacobs found himself on the injury report with a calf injury in each of the three games that he saw the reduced workload. He got in only his second full practice in the previous four weeks on the Friday before the team’s Week 10 game, indicating to me that his calf injury is becoming less of an issue. I would expect him to settle into the 75-80% snap rate range while dominating opportunities once more. Jacobs maintains one of the most robust red-zone roles in the league and trails only Jonathan “three-touchdown” Taylor in total scores this season (11). Outside of the three games in which he was limited by the calf, Jacobs averages 24 opportunities per game on an average of 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Finally, the Giants have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (8.7%), but Jacobs checks in with a modest 3.7% explosive-run rate and has managed only 3.75 yards per carry, failing to eclipse 100 yards in any game this season.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Green Bay pass game has a lot of moving pieces this week. They appear to have avoided disaster with Romeo Doubs getting in a full session Wednesday, while Golden returned to a limited practice. Both Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams were once again limited to start the week. The team is obiously without breakout tight end Tucker Kraft for the remainder of the season. If Doubs is indeed fully healthy, he should be expected to lead the team in snaps and route participation, with Christian Watson already taking on a near every-down role just three games into his 2025 season following a Week 18 torn ACL last year. Wicks continues to demonstrate a wide range of outcomes from down to down, often looking elite in both blocking and route running while also struggling with certain mental aspects of the game, including drops. All of that to say, I would expect the team to have Doubs and Watson as near every-down options, with Luke Musgrave ceding some work to John FitzPatrick. I would expect Bo Melton to be the odd man out, while Wicks and Golden share the remaining snaps available at wide receiver, assuming health. Love has attempted 31 or fewer passes in five of nine games, going over that mark in losses to the Eagles and Panthers, the team’s overtime tie against the Cowboys, and in the shootout with the Steelers. Expect muted aerial volume unless otherwise forced.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Samaje Perine (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and appears to be headed for an absence with a high-ankle sprain.
• QB Joe Flacco did not practice Wednesday as he manages a shoulder injury, while QB Joe Burrow returned to a limited session. Burrow is reportedly targeting Thanksgiving for a return, meaning it should be Flacco under center against the Steelers.
• Steelers LB Alex Highsmith (pec) and CB Darius Slay (concussion) did not practice Wednesday, potentially marking two big defensive losses, particulary in the pass game.
• The Bengals have averaged 37.7 points per game and allowed 39.0 points per game their last three times out.
• The Bengals have missed the most tackles this season (109) while the Steelers have missed the second most (81).
• The Bengals lead the league in pass rate, while the Steelers have faced the third highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) and most pass attempts per game (39.7).

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How CINCINNATI Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals know the limitations of their team, or, more specifically, their defense, something that has led to the highest pass rate in the league (67.75%). They currently average the third-most pass attempts per game (37.0) and the fewest rush attempts per game (18.8), with Flacco attempting 45 passes or more in three of four starts with the team. The team has averaged 37.7 points per game in its most recent three-game stretch against the Bears, Jets, and Steelers, while allowing an average of 39.0 points per game in that same span. This team is one we are going out of our way to target in DFS for their sheer ineptitude on defense and explosive potential on offense. Their opponent in Week 11 also happens to have allowed the most pass yards per game (269.4) while facing the most pass attempts per game and the third highest PROE. Finally, the Bengals also rank second in pace of play at 27.6 seconds per play.

Lead back Chase Brown is coming off a hefty 96% snap rate after change-of-pace back Perine departed the team’s Week 9 loss after one offensive snap due to a high-ankle sprain. The team has yet to release their Thursday injury report as of this writing, but I currently expect Perine to miss this week. That could potentially place Brown in line to see a massive share of the workload in the Cincinnati backfield against a Steelers opponent allowing a middling 4.1 yards per carry. The matchup yields a middling 1.97 net-adjusted yards before contact per attempt, while Brown is coming off an eight-reception game. Brown will likely project as one of the better point-per-dollar options on the slate should Perine remain sidelined, but we must keep in mind that the ceiling is likely lacking considering he has scored only three touchdowns all season, and only one outside of his two-touchdown game against the Jets in Week 8. Finally, consider the fact that Brown has not seen more than 12 carries since Week 2 and the team is averaging the fewest rush attempts per game (18.8).

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

Ja’Marr Chase holds a ridiculous 28.1 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) in Flacco’s four starts. Just for some quick context, Davante Adams ranks second on the season in XFP/G (behind Chase) at 18.7. In other words, Chase is averaging over 50% more XFP/G in Flacco starts than the next closest player this season. Tee Higgins and Chase have combined to account for 71.8% of the team’s air yards and 62.2% of the actual yards in the previous four games, amassing a combined 820 yards and six touchdowns on 90 targets (to be fair, Chase has 63 of those) in that span. We know the team will be passing and we have a pretty good idea of where those targets will be going. Furthering the potential for an aerial eruption is a matchup against a Steeler team not only facing the most pass attempts per game, but likely to be without one of their top pass rusher in Highsmith and one of their high-dollar corners in Slay. You could not draw up a better spot on paper.

HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• The Chargers continue to put together a wildly impressive season as they enter Week 11 with a 7-3 record despite massive injury issues.
• Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing fourth quarter collapse and has been falling apart in recent weeks.
• The Jaguars expect to get Brian Thomas Jr. back this week and should have newly acquired WR Jakobi Meyers up to speed for this matchup.
• This week sets up well for the Jaguars running game, which has been more efficient than their passing game and faces a relatively weak Chargers run defense.
• Kimani Vidal will once again operate as the workhorse running back for the Chargers as they head into their Week 12 bye.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have quietly been one of the more impressive stories of the 2025 NFL season as they have battled significant injury adversity, yet have a 7-3 record and are clearly in contention at the top of the AFC as we head into the second half of the season. Los Angeles is playing without both of their starting tackles, who are elite caliber players at their positions, and has had other injuries up front throughout the season as well. They also lost rookie running back Omarion Hampton for several weeks right when he was hitting his stride, although they will likely get him back after their Week 12 bye. Not only did they lose Hampton, but the next two backs on the depth chart to start the season have missed significant time as well. Through all of it, quarterback Justin Herbert has been the guiding force that has steadied the ship through rough waters. The Chargers actually have two very impressive national TV wins in their last three games, beating the Vikings 37-10 and the Steelers 25-10 – two strong organizations and very well coached teams.

Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation this season. They are a team that is willing to run the ball when game script calls for it and has had some success doing so in some spots, but the games where their rushing production excelled has mostly been in games they won handily and they have gotten there on volume rather than consistent efficiency. In the Chargers two convincing wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh, running back Kimani Vidal handled touch counts of 24 and 26, respectively. The matchup this week is not daunting for the running game, but the Jaguars are slightly better against the run than the pass and the Chargers offense revolves first and foremost around their passing game with running the ball being a complementary and game script driven aspect of their offense.

Justin Herbert has been playing at an elite level this season. Despite the chaos around him, this team just keeps producing. The running backs have not been overly involved in the passing game in recent weeks since the emergence of rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden. Second year wide receiver Ladd McConkey has started performing at his expected levels in recent weeks and has 20+ PPR points in three of his last five games and has led the team in targets in four of the last five games. McConkey and Quentin Johnston are nearly full-time players, with veteran Keenan Allen and rookie Tre Harris splitting time as the third receiver. Top receiving options for opponents have been destroying the Jaguars recently, as they have given up huge games to Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over their last four games. They are pretty solid on the perimeter and blitz at a top-10 rate, which should force the ball out quickly for Herbert with his offensive line injuries. Everything about the matchup seems to indicate that McConkey and Gadsden will be busy as the primary options in the best matchups in this spot, with Keenan Allen also in a good spot but with slightly less volume. Expect Herbert to come out throwing and focused on getting the ball out quickly to his slot receiver and tight end with a relatively high level of success.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This is a massive matchup between two NFC powers with huge divisional and conference playoff implications.
• Seattle QB Sam Darnold has proven to be one of the better offseason acquisitions in the NFL and a relative bargain with his elite efficiency this season.
• Rams QB Matthew Stafford is putting together perhaps the best season of his career and has the Rams offense absolutely humming.
• Seattle’s defense has been elite this season except for a short stretch where they were decimated by injuries.
• The Rams offense has been getting more creative with how they utilize their personnel and formations, which has shown up in the snap and usage rates for their primary weapons.
• These are the two highest rated passing offenses in the league by DVOA.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks made the decision to move on from QB Geno Smith this offseason and gave Sam Darnold a much-deserved contract that now looks like a massive steal as Darnold has thrived in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Darnold is completing over 71% of his passes and leads the NFL by a wide margin with a completion rate over expected of 11.3%. Darnold has attempted over 30 passes in a game only three times this season as the Seahawks have operated a low-volume, high-efficiency offense as is often the case with Shanahan/Kubiak style offenses. Last week against the Cardinals, Darnold attempted only 12 passes thanks to a dominant Seahawks defensive performance. This week against the Rams he is going to have to be a lot more involved if they want to pull off the road upset. 

Seattle’s running game has been “good enough” most of the season. They are not a team with a strong or physically dominant offensive line, but their scheme and execution is solid which has allowed them to run the ball with enough efficiency to sustain the offense and set-up their passing game. The Rams defense ranks 5th in run defense DVOA and is coming off a game where they shut down Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers running game, so this isn’t a spot where we should expect Seattle’s backfield to get things going. Once again, they should be able to gain some yards and keep the offense on schedule but are unlikely to consistently be breaking off chunk plays on the ground.

This means the Seattle passing game will have to do the heavy lifting. Obviously Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a massive breakout season and is in contention for offensive player of the year in the NFL. His target share is elite and the combination of his route running, versatility, and hands are so good that he is almost impossible for an opponent to take away. Kubiak is also good enough as a play designer and play caller to utilize JSN to open things up for others as well. JSN is basically the entire offense as almost everything is designed to get him the ball or use him to open things up for someone else. He lines up all over the field and runs a dynamic route tree that attacks short, intermediate, and deep areas of coverage. Some of his biggest gains this season have come on deep crossing routes that get him the ball on the move in space. The Rams have played zone coverage at a top-five rate this season and while they will certainly do their best to key in on JSN, he is going to see double digit targets again this week and the Rams path to success will be more about simply limiting him to a “good” game and not letting all the other guys get going.

The “other guys” are a fun group that is coming together. New acquisition Rashid Shaheed is an exciting addition to this offense and familiar with Kubiak’s system. Expect some downfield shots this week after that not being necessary in his Seattle debut. Veteran WR Cooper Kupp is solid and dependable, but not a focal point. He had a long reception last week, but that was mostly a blown coverage and long run after catch. Tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo have proven to be great options as well and could be busy against the Rams zone coverages and finding openings in the wake that JSN creates.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Brock Purdy will be returning from a toe injury for the 49ers for the first time since Week 4.
• San Francisco will also be getting explosive wide receiver Ricky Pearsall back on the field after a multi-week knee injury.
• Arizona will be without their top wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., due to an appendix issue.
• Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett has been a consistent fantasy producer since becoming their starter, scoring over 20 fantasy points in four straight games.
• Both defenses have been struggling recently, allowing 29 and 30 points per game over the last three weeks.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers are turning the keys back over to QB Brock Purdy after a six week absence that had Mac Jones running things. To Jones’ credit, he kept their offense playing at a high level and moving the ball most weeks. However, Purdy’s ability to command things and do some different things is a slight upgrade for everyone involved. How big of an upgrade and whether it is enough to justify Purdy’s contract is unclear and a topic for a different time. For our purposes this week, the return of Purdy should be a good thing for San Francisco but there is a chance for some rust and a bit of an adjustment period. Some of the strong fantasy performances by Jones were games that were carried by high pass volume due to game script and matchup. The 49ers also get WR Ricky Pearsall back this week. This will be the first time since Week 1 that San Francisco has all of Purdy, Pearsall, CMC, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings on the field together – and in that game they only had the full group for 10 snaps!!

The matchup this week for San Francisco is great as they face an Arizona defense that has been struggling recently and is designed in such a way that the Cardinals should have no trouble moving the ball and sustaining drives. Arizona plays a high rate of zone coverages and has middling blitz and pressure rates. Their run defense is decent, but has been gashed by stronger rushing offenses. San Francisco, on the other hand, has been running the ball much more efficiently since the return of George Kittle against weaker run defenses. There have been four games since Kittle’s return, two of which were against the porous Falcons and Giants run defenses and two against the elite run defenses of the Texans and Rams. CMC and the running game had their way in the good matchups and were shut down in the tough matchups. Arizona falls somewhere in the middle. As alluded to before, Arizona has allowed 150+ rushing yards in three of their last six games.

Purdy should be successful through the air with time to throw against an Arizona defense that hasn’t been able to get much pressure outside of the Dallas game this season. CMC has smashed on the ground and through the air against Arizona’s defense in recent seasons and the matchup schematically fits his role perfectly once again. Jauan Jennings is targeted at a higher frequency against man coverage, while George Kittle’s skill set tends to fit better against zone schemes like Arizona’s. Kittle also shouldn’t have to worry about being asked to block often due to the lack of pass rush the Cardinals create. Pearsall saw heavy volume early in the season when Jennings and Kittle were out, but is likely to work back into a big play type of role with lower volume but targets further down the field. This week’s matchup against Arizona doesn’t really fit that archetype, however, and it remains to be seen what kind of snap rate he will play in his first game back.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• There appears to be a strong chance of weather issues in this game with cold temperatures and strong winds coming off the lake that could make kicking and long passes difficult.
• This is a rematch from a Week 2 game where the Browns stifled the Ravens running game, but were diced up by Lamar Jackson through the air.
• Baltimore may be without WR Rashod Bateman and RB Justice Hill, who both missed practice Wednesday.
• Cleveland’s offense has scored over 20 points once all season, while the Ravens have held their last four opponents to an average of 14.5 points with none scoring over 19.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens have a 4-5 record and at one point were a defense that teams were excited to face, yet are now the betting favorites to win their division and seem primed for another season as AFC contenders thanks to a rejuvenated defense and the return of a healthy Lamar Jackson. This week is the first of five remaining games Baltimore has against divisional opponents, and they will be the favorite in all of those games plus a matchup with the Jets next week. They do have a couple of tough games against the Patriots and Packers on the schedule as well, and the other divisional games will be anything but easy, but Baltimore has a clear path to being in the mix and with their coaching, experience, talent, and QB play this could be the year they break through in a wide open AFC.

Baltimore’s offense has been entirely different at various points this season, which makes cumulative statistics misleading. What we do know is that when Lamar Jackson is on the field they are dynamic and deadly. The Ravens have averaged 33.2 points per game in the five games that Jackson started and finished, scoring at least 27 points in all of those games. Last week against a very good and well coached Vikings defense the Ravens were uncharacteristically bad in the red zone and settled for three field goals of under 30 yards. Had they been their typically efficient selves, that could have been a 34 to 38 point game as well. None of this should be news to anyone who has been paying attention, but it is important context to understand just how good they have been with Lamar under center.

As for how they will play, this week presents an interesting dynamic. The weather forecasts here say that it should be very cold and windy. That would normally mean leaning into Derrick Henry and their power running game to impose their will, but in the first matchup with this Cleveland defensive front they had massive struggles running the ball and ended up just letting Lamar sling it, as he finished with a 225 passing yards, four touchdown passes, completed 76% of his passes, and had a passer rating of 129. Cleveland is the top-ranked DVOA run defense and while they may not fully shut Baltimore down like they did in Week 2, the Ravens are likely to need to move the ball through the air to sustain drives. 

Baltimore is likely to be without RB Justice Hill and WR Rashod Bateman in this spot. Expect Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell to work in tandem in the backfield, while the tight ends should be heavily featured in the passing game. The weather and matchup indicates that heavier personnel will help the Ravens in this spot and their dynamic tight ends can then be used as pass catching targets in advantageous situations. Zay Flowers is the top WR option and will likely get peppered with short area targets but the Browns secondary is legit and will likely swarm him quickly. Baltimore spreads things around and this week will likely be no different. Their defense is in a strong spot against Cleveland’s offense, so this could be a week where the Ravens put up a big number on the scoreboard without accumulating a ton of yards. Bateman has not been a huge part of the offense this year, but his absence should have a direct impact on the personnel and formations Baltimore uses with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in position to be important pieces of their game plan.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Denver has an opportunity to essentially knock the Chiefs out of contention for the AFC West crown with a win this week.
• The Broncos are likely to be without RB J.K. Dobbins, which should leave explosive rookie RJ Harvey in a featured role.
• Denver expects the return of WR Marvin Mims Jr. from his two week absence with a concussion and will look to get Courtland Sutton back on track.
• The Chiefs have averaged 29 points per game since WR Rashee Rice returned from his six-game suspension.
• Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco missed practice with his sprained MCL once again on Wednesday, likely leaving Kareem Hunt in the primary running back role.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How kansas City Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs offense is in a spot this week that shouldn’t be too tough to figure out. They are the highest pass rate team in the NFL and have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. They are playing without their top running back (Isiah Pacheco) and facing the third ranked DVOA run defense in the league. Their opponent is also very good against the pass, but will likely be without their best cover corner (Patrick Surtain II) or he will be playing injured. Denver’s pass rush is also very good, but Mahomes is elite at extending plays and avoiding pressure which in many ways should negate that problem – especially if Surtain is out. All signs here point to a game where the Chiefs put the ball in Mahomes hands and trust him to get them where they need to be.

As for how they attack through the air, WR Rashee Rice has been dominant since returning from suspension with a 25% target share and some rushing usage. Rice moves all over the formation and is a chess piece for head coach Andy Reid that is a key to unlocking the rest of the offense. Rice and Xavier Worthy have been playing over 80% of the snaps in recent weeks and Worthy is the big play threat who Mahomes will almost certainly be attacking downfield in this one especially if Surtain is out. Worthy was added to the injury report Thursday with an ankle issue, so his status is worth monitoring. Behind those two, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and Marquise Brown all rotate into the game and seem to have specific roles. None are likely to see enough volume to meaningfully change the outlook of this one, although Thornton’s role could grow if Worthy’s ankle issue is more serious than we are currently aware of. Tight end Travis Kelce has actually been playing quite well and been fairly consistent, even if the production is not what we have been accustomed to throughout his career. Kelce has over 60 receiving yards in four of his last five games and does not have a multi-touchdown game yet this season – something that he seems destined for before all is said and done. Kelce played his two highest snap counts of the season in the Chiefs last two games before their bye and should be rested and ready for another big workload in this borderline must-win game.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oh boy, this should be a fun one. Sunday Night Football has the Lions traveling to Philly for a 46.5 total game with Philly favored by 2.5. The Lions team total feels oddly low given that they’re averaging 31.4 points per game and have scored over 22 points in 7 of 9 games, while Philly has been only a slightly above average defense this year. I don’t really bet sides and totals, but I’d be tempted to take the over here, either on the game or on the Lions. The big news is Detroit is missing Sam LaPorta, and when this elite offense is missing one of its main five guys, we have to take notice of A) it might just result in the other four soaking up work, but B) there’s also opportunity for someone else to fill in.

PHILADELPHIA

On the Eagles side, Saquon Barkley has not looked like himself this year. He’s averaging just 3.9 yards per carry (after 5.8 last year with the Eagles), and he’s averaging just 64 rushing yards per game as Philly has only let him go over 20 carries twice on the year. The matchup here is slightly below average, but not awful, as the Lions allow 4 yards per carry, but the real concern is the volume. Saquon averaged 21.5 carries per game last year and is at just 16.5 per game this year. Averages aren’t everything, and Saquon still has ceiling as he showed two weeks ago against the Giants, but this is not the ideal spot for him, and there are other high-end plays who are going to project much more strongly. The good news is his price is as low as I can remember at just $9.6k. You could take a stand here one way or another, and betting heavily on a stud RB who’s a home favorite is not a bad position to be in, but he sure looks a lot riskier than he did last year. Will Shipley beat out Tank Bigsby in snaps last week after the prior game had things swinging the other way, with Shipley handling 4 carries and 2 targets while Bigsby had 3 carries. It looks like the Bigsby surge in Week 8 was purely driven by game script as the Eagles blew out the Giants. Bummer for Bigsby, who was expected to open the season as the Jaguars lead back, then was traded and is now a 3rd stringer. Life comes at you fast. Shipley is a thin punt option.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we successfully identified that the last Eagles Showdown was a DeVonta Smith game. This one looks more like an A.J. Brown game. Brown’s numbers against man coverage are still elite, with 4 yards per route run and a 36% target rate, while the Lions play man coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate. Smith is still absolutely, positively viable here. As I wrote up in the last Eagles Showdown, it really looks like the torch has passed, but AJB has still shown plenty of ceiling in the right matchups. We just have to be more strategic about where we target him, and this is the kind of spot in which he has historically gone off. At a bargain-basement $8k price, I’m all the way in. I’ll probably try to roughly match the field on Smith exposure and be way over on AJB. WR3 Jahan Dotson is a dart throw, as is WR4 Darius Cooper. Dotson has 15 targets on the season, so you basically need him to catch a long touchdown.

For tight end Dallas Goedert, I could copy/paste what I wrote about him last game: it’s really tough to rely on a guy who’s been finding ceilings with 3-4 catches and a touchdown (or two). I want volume. The one thing in his favor is that his price has tanked from $7.4k last Showdown to $5.6k in this one. He’s certainly more appealing as a cheaper price (duh), and I’m more interested this week than last week (as in, in week 10, I just X’d him out entirely, whereas in Week 11 I’ll let him show up in my runs). TE2 Grant Calcaterra and TE3 Kylen Granson can also be included in the punt player pool, with Dotson clearly the strongest of the Eagles punts, then Calcaterra, then Granson, then Cooper. 

DETROIT

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

No Dallas game on the main slate to pull ownership this week, as they play on Monday, visiting the Raiders for a 49.5 total game in which the Cowboys are favored by 3.5. Dallas has been one of the league’s best offenses but have significant home/road splits (29.2 points per game overall, 4th in the league, but 24.4 on the road – still good, but no longer elite), and while the Raiders offense is only scoring 15.4 points per game (yikes), going up against the Dallas “defense” has been good for what ails every team, as they’ve allowed no fewer than 22 points in any game (and that was to the Jets) while averaging 30.8 points per game against them on the season (2nd worst in the league). 

DALLAS

Javonte Williams is not exactly an elite running back, but he’s sure been in an elite spot. The Cowboys are happy to give him bell cow workloads as he’s averaging 19.3 opportunities per game (including just shy of 4 targets). On one of the league’s best offenses, that’s resulted in elite production. We always need to check our biases with running backs – scoring is (much) more a function of role and team environment than it is about the running back’s individual talent. The role and team environment for Javonte are elite, as Dallas doesn’t really have a trusted RB2, so he should see just about all of the touches as a high-total team. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Raiders have been more vulnerable to the pass than the run, but that’s really the only knock against Javonte. He’s a rock-solid play. Behind him will be…uh….I’d guess it’s Phil Mafah coming off of IR, but it could be Malik Davis, or maybe they’re willing to give Jaydon Blue another shot. One of those guys. They’re all very thin. I’d guess Mafah.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, CeeDee Lamb is a monster. He’s only had five healthy games, but he’s scored 14.6 or more DK points in all of them with at least 8 targets and at least 74 receiving yards in every game. He has a minimum of 8 targets and is averaging over 10. Dude’s bonkers. He’s my clear favorite skill position play (yes, over Javonte). WR2 George Pickens is finally seeing his price dip back down to normal ranges after having some games without CeeDee. With CeeDee, Pickens has yet to reach the 100 yard receiving mark. He certainly could here, as the matchup is great against a bad Raiders secondary, and he’s a solid option, but in a vacuum, I’d prefer Lamb even at $1,800 more. WR3 is a rotation with Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert all getting snaps. Tolbert looks to be trending the wrong way, while Flournoy is trending up, and Turpin seems pretty steady as a WR3/gadget guy type. Flournoy’s role has the most upside as he played 67% of the snaps in last week’s blowout while Turpin and Tolbert both played far fewer. In a competitive game, I think it’s closer but would still lean Flournoy as the best option, then Turpin (who at least comes with a material discount from Flournoy), then Tolbert (who I’m not even sure would make my player pool at all). All of these guys are hard to play as this offense really focuses around the main guys, and I would not play more than one of them on the same roster.

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is a PPR and touchdown machine; however, this matchup does not favor him as the Raiders have largely eliminated opposing tight ends. An elevated price of $7,400 hasn’t yet fully adjusted back down after Lamb has returned, leaving Fergy as a contrarian tournament option who definitely needs a touchdown to pay off (and could even need 2, depending on the rest of the scoring). He’s just a little too expensive for me to be excited about him, given the matchup (and especially given who he’s priced next to – hint, hint). TE2 Luke Schoonmaker has 15 targets on the season, which at $1,600 is okay, so he’s a viable dart throw. 

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