Week 11 Matchups

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0:00 :: Bengals // WFT
11:16 :: Falcons // Saints
23:04 :: Steelers // Jags
39:11 :: Patriots // Texans
52:36 :: Eagles // Browns
62:13 :: Lions // Panthers
72:15 :: Titans // Ravens
82:18 :: Jets // Chargers
93:50 :: Dolphins // Broncos
104:35 :: Packers // Colts
115:16 :: Cowboys // Vikings

Week 10 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Thursday, Nov 19th 8:20pm Eastern

Cards (
27) at

Hawks (
30)

Over/Under 57.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
13th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
9th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
4th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
26th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
13th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 10 starts off with what is currently the highest total game of the week as the Cardinals visit the Seahawks for a 57.5 total game as of Tuesday afternoon. The Seahawks are favored by a field goal, which is how Vegas generally assigns the home-field advantage, so basically, these teams are being viewed as a tossup. When these teams met in Week 7, we got one of the best shootouts of the season, with the Cardinals winning on a late field goal 37-34. Even if we assume “two teams meeting for the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
23) at

WFT (
24.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
21st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
20th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
29th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
31st DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Washington Run D
14th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
24th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace of play, offensive plays run from scrimmage per game, pass play rate and defensive completion percentage allowed while ranking bottom half of the league in turnover differential and offensive drive success rate; there are going to be a lot of offensive plays run from scrimmage in this gameHighly concentrated offenses on both sidesA lot to “like,” not a ton to “love”

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

It appears more and more likely that starting running back Joe Mixon misses his fourth . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
23) at

Saints (
26.5)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
7th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
6th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
8th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Saints Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
30th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
6th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
12th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Sean Payton might not even realize this...but this is a dream setup for him: a chance to call a game with absolute creativity (and to potentially blitz DFS players as a result)The Falcons are much better through the air than on the ground, but they have been run-leaning on early downs since Raheem Morris took overThe Saints set up well to control this game; and Payton will likely do everything he can to limit Jameis' turnovers and play from in frontOf course, there are plenty of potential tributaries in which this . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
29) at

Jaguars (
18.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
6th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
19th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
20th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
29th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
15th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Steelers should be able to win in any way they chose, the question is if their inflated pass play rates continue hereThere is a definite pressure on an undefeated team this late in the season to remain undefeated, likely explaining the poor starts from the Steelers in their last two games in soft matchupsMore guesswork involved from this game than any other on the slate, particularly interesting when it involves the team with the highest implied team total

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

This is one of the top questions on the slate . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
25.5) at

Texans (
23)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
30th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
11th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Game sets up very well for the Patriots to be able to control the game how they’d like toNew England carries almost four minutes more average time of possession than HoustonSplash play potential should be there for Houston, but expect stalled drives and poor average field position to be the norm hereHouston wide receivers carry a high variance floor/ceiling range of outcomes with likely intermediate-deep passing being the norm for the Texans

How New England Will Try To Win ::

We’d think New England’s weekly game plans would look a . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
21.5) at

Browns (
24)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
13th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
7th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
19th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
15th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
20th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
30th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Cleveland wants to run, run, run; and unlike the past three seasons, teams have not been shy about running vs PhillyPhilly's offense is lost right now; this isn't a matchup that cuts their legs out from under them, but it's also not a matchup that provides a significant boostCleveland should control this game, leaving us with relatively few elite DFS options

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland has not cared about matchups this season, running the ball on early downs with the score within seven points at the third highest . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
25) at

Panthers (
22)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
8th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
10th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
25th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
16th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
24th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
16th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Panthers play slow and put together long drives, and the Lions are unlikely to prevent them from doing thisThe Panthers also force short-area action on defense and require opponents to put together long drivesThese elements should create a game environment that allows scoring, but that limits shootout potentialWith injury news at play, there is plenty still up in the air in this one

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

As of this writeup (Wednesday night), here’s what we know ::

1) Christian McCaffrey is not going to play this week.
2 . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
22.25) at

Ravens (
28.25)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
19th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
11th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
25th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
22nd DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
3rd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
5th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
2nd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Titans have a good offense and a brutal matchupThe Ravens have had a poor offense, but this matchup provides a soft landing spotThe Vegas-implied team total for the Ravens is aggressive, all things consideredThere are pieces to consider here, but this game (unsurprisingly) is not a gold mine

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Let’s define these teams a little bit.

The Titans like to win on the ground — notching the sixth highest rush play rate on the season, and the fifth highest rush play rate on early downs with the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
19) at

Chargers (
27.5)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
10th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
28th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
5th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The Chargers have not been aggressive unless made to be aggressive, which not many are going to understand about this game (they have the absolute nut matchup through the air, but are likely to tilt toward the ground unless forced to the air – the Jets are not likely to force their hand here)The Chargers hold an over five minute advantage in average time of possession per game over the JetsNot much to love from this game, but the Chargers carry the week’s third highest implied team total, so there is a case . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 4:05pm Eastern

Dolphins (
24.25) at

Broncos (
21.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
29th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
26th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
8th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
32nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
27th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Miami’s defense should control the flow and tempo of this game and are one of the top defensive/special teams plays on the slateLow expected volume, highly concentrated passing offense for the DolphinsHigh volume, concentrated passing offense for the Broncos in a difficult matchupGame plan for the Broncos shouldn’t change based on Lock or Rypien at quarterback

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The NFL average is just over 64 offensive snaps run from scrimmage per team per game in 2020. Over Tua Tagovailoa’s three starts for Miami, the Dolphins have . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 4:25pm Eastern

Packers (
25.25) at

Colts (
26.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
22nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
16th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
20th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
13th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

These two teams are similar to one another in a handful of areas……but they are also very different in a handful of othersPlay volume should be limited in this one, and this game is likely to stay closeOwnership shouldn’t surge in this spot, but there are some angles to consider

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Throughout the 2019 NFL season (carrying into the NFL offseason, and into the 2020 NFL season), predictive analytics have been telling us that the Packers are not as good as their record — and yet, their record . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
21.5) at

Vikings (
28.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
18th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
15th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
22nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
11th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
28th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

“How Minnesota will try to win” is about as obvious as anything we’ve seen in the NFLDallas has been shifting to a more run-based approach as well since losing DakThe Vikings should gradually pull away in this one, and Dalvin is the one piece that really stands out in this spot……but given the way this slate is shaping up, there may be another piece or two to consider

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Every week, when I read through the NFL Edge, I wish a few of the game writeups . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 22nd 8:20pm Eastern

Chiefs (
32) at

Raiders (
24.5)

Over/Under 56.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
12th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
7th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
7th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
26th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
21st DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
19th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Oh, how I wish this game was on the main slate. But, that’s the fun of Showdowns. We don’t have to miss great games just because they aren’t on the slate. Sunday night football has the Chiefs visiting the Raiders for a lovely 57 total game with Kansas City favored by eight points. This one looks like a doozy (if it was on the main slate, it would be the highest total game by a whopping 5.5 points at the time I’m writing this). Remember when these teams met last time . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 23rd 8:15pm Eastern

Rams (
21.75) at

Bucs (
25.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
26th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
19th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
17th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
It’s the end of Week 11 and we’re about two-thirds of the way through the NFL season already (sadly). This week wraps up with the Rams visiting the Bucs, with Tampa favored by 4.5 points in a 48 total game. Both teams boast strong defenses with Tampa being first overall in DVOA and the Rams eighth.
The Los Angeles running game is hard to be interested in here unless you’re just trying to be contrarian. The backfield is back to being a three-way split as Cam Akers has worked his . . .

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