XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 begins with the Raiders taking on the Broncos in a 42.5 total game with Denver favored by 10. We’re fresh off the trade deadline, and Las Vegas traded away Jakobi Meyers, while the Broncos stood pat. The Raiders are, obviously, a bad team and deserve their major underdog status on the road at altitude against a better team and having just essentially signaled that they’re punting on the rest of their season (at 2-6, this should surprise nobody). Let’s dig in.

DENVER

On the Denver side, the backfield looks like a split with RB1 J.K. Dobbins hanging out around the 50% snap share mark most weeks, while RJ Harvey is around 25-30% and Tyler Badie is in the 20% range. Dobbins is getting the bulk of the touches, but he has only reached the 20 opportunity mark once, averaging 15 carries and about 1.5 targets per game. Harvey’s workload has bounced around significantly, with carry counts ranging from 2 to 14 and target counts from 1 to 5. There’s more volatility in his range of touches, whereas Dobbins has tended to stay pretty steady, indicating that perhaps Dobbins is on something of a firmer touch count while Harvey picks up what’s left. Harvey also had 19 touches in Week 4’s blowout win against the Bengals, indicating that perhaps he has more upside in Broncos onslaught builds. Badie only really gets targets with just 2 carries on the year and 17 targets –  he’ll almost certainly need to catch a touchdown to be relevant, and he has yet to see a red zone target, so he’s a tough sell. Dobbins doesn’t have the kind of workload we normally look for, but at $8,600, he’s priced for his role, and he has a good matchup as a large home favorite; his floor is low with little passing game work and modest workload, but he’s a very viable tournament option. Harvey is interesting as he has some explosiveness with the ball in his hands, he’s caught 4 TDs on the year, and he has upside in blowout scenarios. At $5,600, he’s pricier than I normally want in an RB2, but he has multiple paths to ceiling outcomes, and I think the price may well keep his ownership subdued, which would make him a compelling if risky tournament option. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the big question is whether Marvin Mims will return from his concussion that he experienced in Week 8. Mims returned to practice on Tuesday, which gives him a shot, but he still has to get through the protocol in order to be cleared. Mims has not exactly been playing a ton of snaps, but his absence in Week 9 resulted in Troy Franklin playing his 2nd-most snaps of the season and seeing a season-high 10 targets. We’ll start there: Franklin is an exciting young player who has delivered a couple of fantastic performances already this season while on main slates. He’s not quite a “breakout” because outside of those two “booms” he’s busted and only reached double-digit DK points one other time, but he’s talented and he’s had games of 8 and 10 targets in Weeks 8 and 7, respectively, and that’s with Mims playing (Although the Week 7 game was a shootout in which Bo Nix threw a season-high 50 times). Also worth noting is that Franklin is the team’s primary red zone weapon by a WIDE margin, with 12 targets, while the next highest only has 6 (Courtland Sutton). The point is, Franklin is a reasonable play if Mims is in, and he becomes a really strong option if Mims sits.

Next, we have the WR1 of the offense, Sutton, who has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy this season, with 10+ DK points in all but two games and 16+ in 5/9. Given that he’s had a few really tough matchups, that level of consistency is impressive. As their prices creep closer, I definitely prefer Sutton over Franklin, if Mims is active, and still slightly lean Sutton’s way if Mims sits out (but it’s closer). If Mims plays, he’s a highly volatile boom/bust option as always. The matchup here is solid with some risk that Denver won’t need to throw much (but let’s also note Mims had his best game of the season when the Broncos curb-stomped the Bengals 28-3 – players with his profile can find ceilings on limited volume). One guy I want to mention, however, is Pat Bryant. Bryant has been playing around 50% of the snaps the last five weeks, and that looks to be independent of Mims. In the last four weeks, he has target counts of 2, 4, 4, and 3, and he’s scored a touchdown; he’s a fairly talented rookie. He’s not an elite option (an aDOT of just 7.3 yards holds back his upside), but he’s starting to show an ability to earn targets and be trusted in this offense (he’s been the first read on just over half of his targets, which is something we want to see for a rookie – they’re purposefully involving him). He even has 3 red zone targets already. At $3,200, I’m very interested in him as a value play and think that he’s likely to come in at sub-10% ownership if Mims is active. I worry about him getting steamed a bit if Mims misses, but we’ll just have to see what ownership projections say. To be clear, I think Mims is the overall better and higher ceiling play – but at sub-10% ownership, I’m interested in being overweight on Bryant.

At tight end, the Broncos are using Adam Trautman far too much for my taste (really just for fantasy purposes, that is. Trautman’s a blocker who doesn’t do much for fantasy). Evan Engram is the more interesting play for DFS. He’s established a fairly consistent role even on limited snaps, and if you remember his time on the Jags, the knock against him was they only used him between the 20s and not in the red zone, but on Denver, he has 4 red zone targets (Sutton only has 6!), so the role here is reasonable. Engram has a lower ceiling than Mims but a higher floor. 

LAS VEGAS

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We have an early Sunday game in Berlin with the Falcons taking on the Colts. This one has a 48.5 total with Indy favored by 7.5, and after being embarrassed by the  Steelers in a game in which they scored a season-low 20 points, the Colts have to be looking for a rebound performance offensively. 

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts offense begins with Jonathan Taylor, who insanely has four 3-touchdown games this season. One of the few true bell cow backs in the league, JT has at least 14 touches in every game (And he scored 40.4 DK points in that 14-touch game) while averaging 17.4 carries and 3.2 targets. That’s an average of 20.4 opportunities per game, one of the highest in the league, while playing for the league’s best offense that has scored 32.2 points per game. The role is awesome. The matchup here is nice: the Falcons defense is allowing the fewest passing yards per game at just 158, but they have allowed an above-average 124 rush yards per game. Atlanta is, overall, an above-average defense but not an elite one, and the matchup favors Indy attacking on the ground. Indy is also nearly a touchdown favorite. Everything points to JT being in a really strong spot. Backup running backs Tyler Goodson and Ameer Abdullah are barely playing but can be included in MME player pools as (very) thin punt options. 

In the passing game, the Colts offense has been elite, and while the matchup is poor, the Falcons have largely faced below-average passing opponents. The Colts are in another league. Daniel Jones has been legitimately awesome this season (last game notwithstanding), and while in main slate terms the Colts have not generated many tournament-worthy scores because A) they spread the ball around, and B) they often take their foot off the gas later in games, in Showdown we need less ceiling. The prices here are also attractive on their lead guys with Michael Pittman at just $8,400 and tight end Tyler Warren at $7,400. Pittman has been incredibly consistent – he’s the WR6 on the season, and while he’s topped out at 23.5 DK points (decent but not great in main slate terms), he’s also reached at least 14.9 DK points in 7 of 9 games. That may or may not result in him being in optimal lineups depending on the rest of the game, but his five performances of 19.3+ DK points are quite likely to help you. He’s underpriced for his floor, and while his ceiling isn’t that of a true top-end WR1, in Showdown terms, it’s very solid. WR2 Alec Pierce is more boom/bust with a deep receiver profile, and while he’s seen 10 and 13 targets in games this season, every other game is 5 or fewer. He’s a little overpriced thanks to coming off his best game of the season, and this matchup doesn’t really do him any favors. I’m less interested here. WR3 Josh Downs is very talented but only plays in 11 personnel sets – he has a higher floor than Pierce but a lower ceiling. But overall, both of these guys are priced too close to Pittman. Pittman is the clear best play on both a raw points and salary-adjusted basis, but of course, Pierce and Downs still belong in tournament player pools for their ceilings. The Colts have largely abandoned their WR4 role as they’ve been disappointed with guys like Adonai Mitchell (who was traded to the Jets this week) and Ashton Dulin. Both have had extremely low snap counts in competitive games. Dulin or whoever else is active can be used as a punt option, but they are not really a significant part of the offense.

Tight end Tyler Warren is the other top-2 option in this passing game besides Pittman, and he’s also priced really close to Pierce and Downs, which also pushes them down the rankings of play priorities. Warren is legitimately elite but has yet to have a real ceiling game. He has a bunch of solid games, but despite a healthy 20% target share and elite 12 red zone targets, he’s capped out at 18.3 DK points on the season. I still feel confident the real ceiling game is coming, and while I cannot predict exactly when, I can tell you I view Warren as having significantly better floor/ceiling combinations than Pierce and Downs, who he’s priced right next to. TE2 Mo Alie-Cox makes a better punt play than the tertiary wide receivers, as he’s on the field more, but he’s still fairly thin with just 7 targets on the season. 

ATLANTA

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Bears RBs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both got in limited sessions on Wednesday. It appears as if Swift is ready to return from a one-game absence.
• Bears WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze did not practice Wednesday – monitor these situations the remainder of the week.
• Jaxson Dart, since taking over under center for the Giants: 18.6 DK points or more in every start, averaging 23.0 DK points per game, 7.87 DK points on the ground per game, and a 4.04x salary multiplier on his Week 10 salary.
• Ray-Ray McCloud immediately stepped into a featured role for the Giants in his first game, charged with a 91% snap rate and 87.2% route participation, while leading the team with a 97.1% wide route rate.
• These two teams are each in the bottom seven in total yards allowed per game and the bottom five in points allowed per game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has a rushing score in five of six starts, has accounted for multiple touchdowns in every start, has topped 202 pass yards only once, and has topped 33 pass attempts only once. That should succinctly summarize how this team is trying to win with him under center, with a run-balanced approach designed to shorten games. Dart has been overperforming expectations while giving the ball away only once outside of his three-turnover game against the Saints, of all teams. That has allowed the Giants to stay ahead of the chains at a high frequency with Dart under center. Dart has also been extremely consistent since taking over under center, scoring 18.6 DK points or more in each start while hitting 27.2 or higher in two of six. He has averaged 23.0 DK points per game as the starter, or a 4.04x salary multiplier on his Week 10 salary ($5,700), while averaging 7.87 DK points per game on the ground alone. The Bears have really only faced one hyper-mobile quarterback this season (Jayden Daniels: 10-52 line on the ground), but they did surrender an 8-53 line on the ground to Tyler Huntley. There is legitimate room here for Dart’s rushing upside against the single-high-heavy Bears.

It was Devin Singletary who led the backfield in the first game without Cam Skattebo in Week 9, turning a 56% snap rate into eight carries for 43 yards against the 49ers. He added two targets to his ledger. The bigger picture here is that the backfield was a near even timeshare between him and Tyrone Tracy, as opposed to one back seeing the bulk of the work, as Skattebo had as the lead dog, meaning there isn’t likely to be weekly fantasy value here. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Bears team allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.58) and the fourth most yards per carry (5.1), which more so gives the Giants more paths to sustained drives and points on the scoreboard than it does raise the fantasy value of either back.

The biggest thing that stood out to me from the Giants last week wasn’t the 11 targets for Wan’Dale Robinson or that Darius Slayton led the team in receiving with 62 yards or that Theo Johnson scored his fifth touchdown in the previous six games, it was that Ray-Ray McCloud immediately stepped into a robust 91% snap rate for a team starved for consistent production at wide receiver. The team already used three standard elevations on Lil’Jordan Humphrey and did not sign him to their active roster, instead elevating McCloud. I expect that to continue into Week 10, meaning there is the potential to get a near-min priced wide receiver, on a week with no clear paths for value (currently), in a near every-down role, against the defense allowing the highest rate of explosive pass plays on the slate. The Bears are a Cover-3-focused defense, against which nobody on the Giants stands out. Robinson (0.37 FP/RR) and Slayton (0.35 FP/RR) understandably lead the team against the primary coverage, but they have been far from elite. Slayton brings the most per-target upside on his 12.9 aDOT against Cover-3 and 13.4 overall aDOT

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Joshua Palmer (knee) got in consecutive limited sessions to start the week after missing the previous two games.
• RB James Cook (ankle) upgraded to a limited session Thursday after a DNP Wednesday, placing him on track to suit up against the Dolphins.
• The Bills are hurting a bit on the defensive side of the ball, with CB Christian Benford going from limited to DNP, DE A.J. Epenesa logging consecutive DNPs, and LB Shaq Thompson sidelined all week (as of Thursday) with a hamstring injury. It does appear likely that NT Daquan Jones and NB Taron Johnson return after three and one missed games, respectively.
• The biggest injury news for the Dolphins is CB Rasul Douglas, who has yet to practice this week with foot and ankle injuries.
• The Dolphins traded a big name at the deadline in LB Jaelen Phillips. OLB Bradley Chubb was shopped but ultimately remained with the team. The team also reportedly listened to offers on WR Jaylen Waddle but was not blown away enough to move him.
• The Dolphins rank 26^th in offensive DVOA and 29^th in defensive DVOA while the Bills rank second in offensive DVOA and 19^th in defensive DVOA.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

The Bills are perfectly fine winning games in other ways than through Super-Josh mode in recent history, and this season is no different. A defense holding opponents to 311.3 yards (12^th) and 20.9 points per game (ninth), in addition to one of the most efficient run games in the league, will help that cause. Really the only aspect of their defense that has struggled this season is when they face power run games, which shows up in the game logs. They allowed the Ravens to score 40 points then lost to the Patriots and Falcons. They’ve pretty much handled business against all other opponents, the Chiefs included. Furthermore, only the Seahawks have a higher pressure-to-blitz ratio than the Bills this season, a team that utilizes heavy rates of zone coverage from nickel packages, allowing one of the most athletic defensive fronts to generate organic pressure. The last time these two teams met back in Week 3, Allen attempted only 28 passes while Cook handled 19 carries. That is a good baseline from which to deviate here. 

The key matchup in this game is Cook against a Dolphins defense allowing the highest explosive-run rate in the league. Cook currently ranks behind only Jonathan Taylor in yards per carry, of backs with more than 35 carries, and behind only Taylor, Breece Hall, J.K. Dobbins (queue the dragon meme), and De’Von Achane in explosive yards. Cook’s touchdown upside continues to be heavily reliant on carries from outside the five, considering he has accounted for only 31.8% of the team’s carries inside the five this season, but he boasts a league-leading 62.7% success rate. The low involvement in the green zone has hit Cook’s expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) hard, currently sitting at a 13^th-ranked 14.7 this season. Even so, Cook has gone over 100 yards in five of eight games while scoring in five of eight games. Cook has devolved into a true yardage-and-touchdown back, with only two targets in his last four appearances, leaving him with one of the widest ranges of outcomes at the position on any given slate. This one is no different, except the matchup adds to his chances of hitting ceiling. Primary change- of-pace option Ray Davis has seen his involvement ebb and flow this season, while primary passing down specialist and two-minute back Ty Johnson has seen more consistent usage in the offense. 

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Bills have utilized a loose eight-to-nine man rotation amongst their wide receivers and tight ends throughout the season. That has meant no pass catcher has seen more than 73% of the offensive snaps in either game since the team’s Week 7 bye. I don’t expect that to change even if Palmer returns from injury this week, or if Gabe Davis makes his season debut, which means we’re left touchdown hunting. The Bills have had three instances of a pass catcher going over 100 yards, one of which occurred back in Week 1 with Keon Coleman and the two others were from tight end Dalton Kincaid (both on six targets). Coleman’s season high in receiving outside of that first game is 45 yards, Khalil Shakir’s season high in receiving is 88 yards, and Kincaid has topped out at 66 yards outside of his two 100-yard games. It’s just extremely hard for yardage to pile up for any player while playing so few snaps. Obviously, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Clearly, it can, as we’ve seen in three of eight games. The three times a pass catcher has gone over 100 yards for the Bills this season came in a 41-40 win over the Ravens, a 23-20 loss to the Patriots, and the 28-21 win over the Chiefs. As in, this team typically needs to be pushed to return GPP-worthy production through the air. The Dolphins aren’t exactly a team that is likely to push the Bills, considering they are averaging only 20.0 points per game this season.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Ravens currently have a completely clean injury report, something that does not happen often in the NFL.
• Lamar Jackson led the league in passing scores before being injured in Week 4 and followed it up with four touchdowns through the air in his return to the lineup against the Dolphins – Jackson + one or two pass catchers always warrants consideration, particularly on a slate with very little directional certainty.
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones (shoulder/toe) upgraded from DNP Wednesday to limited Thursday and appears to be in line to play against the Ravens.
• Keep an eye on the status of LT Christian Darrisaw for the Vikings, who was not on the injury report Wednesday before a DNP Thursday with a knee injury. It appears to me to be a maintenance day – Friday’s session will confirm.
• J.J. McCarthy has been asked to throw the football 20, 21, and 25 times in his three starts this season – that, to me, is more signal than noise.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

After struggling through the most injuries I have ever seen on one team at one time, the Ravens are suddenly both fully healthy and playing extremely good football. In fact, the Ravens currently have all 53 players on their active roster off the injury report, something we rarely ever see at the NFL level. They are also coming off a three-game stretch in which they have held the Rams, Bears, and Dolphins to an average of 13 points per game while not allowing more than 17 points in that stretch (Rams). They finally, and smartly, started Tyler Huntley at quarterback coming out of their Week 7 bye, and Lamar Jackson returned in Week 9 following three missed games. In those two games, the Ravens put up 30 and 28 points while their offense was able to function as intended, a far cry from what it looked like with Cooper Rush under center. They have now played five games with either Jackson or Huntley at quarterback for the duration of the game, during which time they averaged 33.8 points per game (they averaged 11 points per game in the three games that Rush played in). This is now a team with a high-powered offense and an improving, and healthy, defense.

In the five games with a healthy Jackson or Huntley under center, Derrick Henry averaged 16.2 carries for 86.4 yards on just under 58% of the offensive snaps, scoring five times while going over 100 yards twice. In the three other games, Henry averaged 15.7 carries for 65.7 yards on 51% of the offensive snaps, scoring once. It should come as no surprise that Henry has been far more efficient with either Jackson or Huntley at quarterback as it gives the defense an additional aspect to account for, in addition to the offense being more functional. Opposing offenses have been able to attack the Vikings on the ground this season, with teams averaging the fifth-highest rush rate (48.64%), the sixth-most attempts per game (29.1), 4.2 yards per carry (16^th), and 122.3 rush yards per game (20^th). The Ravens continue to rank at the top of the league in yards before contact per attempt (3.08) while the Vikings have been near the middle of the pack defensively in that category (1.85). The return of fullback Patrick Ricard in Week 8 also gave this offense a piece it  had been missing for the first half of the season, and he worked up to a solid 38% snap rate last time out. Justice Hill is the primary passing down back while Keaton Mitchell serves as a light change-of-pace option on early downs, neither of whom typically carries enough volume upside to warrant DFS consideration.

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The Ravens have returned to the team with the highest rate of heavy personnel groupings with the return to health of Isaiah Likely and Ricard, playing from 21, 12, or 22-personnel on a ridiculous 53 of 56 offensive plays against the Dolphins. That leaves only Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as near every-down pass catchers, with DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, Charlie Kolar, Likely, and Tylan Wallace all operating in package roles. Of note, Andrews and Likely peaked at 60% snap rates since the return of Ricard. Jackson attempted only 23 passes last week and Huntley attempted only 22 passes the week prior, both in convincing wins, meaning this offense is likely to be a low-volume aerial attack unless otherwise forced by the opponent. Even so, Jackson was leading the league in pass touchdowns through three games and followed it up with four scores through the air in his return to the lineup against the Dolphins, meaning there is always merit to hunting for touchdowns with Jackson and one (or more) of his pass catchers. The Vikings have allowed only 13 passing scores through eight games so it is far from guaranteed, but it bears consideration on a slate like this one.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• WR Isaiah Bond missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury and LB Carson Schwesinger missed with an ankle issue. 
•  The Jets didn’t have anyone miss practice on Wednesday, but they just traded away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams.
• It’s unclear whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will start at QB for the Jets. 
• Breece Hall seems deeply unhappy with the Jets front office and has barely played over 50% of the snaps in the past two weeks. 
• Garrett Wilson is set to come back from injury, but we can’t be sure who will be throwing to him. 
• Dillon Gabriel doesn’t look like an NFL-caliber QB. 
• Quinshon Judkins is the only interesting player in this game, but he has a lot of game-environment factors working against him. 
• The Browns pass catchers are all dirt cheap, but that’s based on a horrific season-long performance.
• The best play from this game is probably the Browns’ defense.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How CLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

The 2-6 Browns come into Week 10 in the midst of another throwaway season. As a Pirates fan, it’s easy to relate to how Browns fans must feel after years of a horrific on-field product. The Browns have struggled to find a franchise quarterback (the one they had, they ran out of town), and the NFL has shown that without at least an average QB, it’s nearly impossible to win. The Browns are currently trotting out Gabriel, a 24-year-old rookie who looks like he might struggle to stick in the league as a career backup. Ownership keeps saying we are going to see Shedeur Sanders at some point, and Kevin Stefanski just “gave up” play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tommy Reese. An offensive head coach doesn’t say he wants to stop calling plays, he’s told he’s going to stop calling plays. The switch to Reese looks like ownership getting involved and is possibly the first move towards getting Sanders on the field. In fairness to ownership, there isn’t much of a reason not to see what Sanders can do at the pro level. It’s already clear that Gabriel isn’t the answer. 

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Browns have been playing fast (third in seconds per play) and learning on the run (23^rd in pass rate over expectation-PROE). There has been a large disconnect in how the Browns want to play, and how they have been forced to play (No. 5 in pass rate). The Browns are dead last in points per play, yards per play, and success rate. That’s about as bad as you can be offensively, and when paired with an above-average defense, the Browns’ game environments have been putrid for fantasy.  The Browns’ O-line has been as bad as the rest of the offense (32^nd-ranked by PFF). They rank dead last in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics, and their lone bright spot has been LG Joel Bitonio, and even he is more average than good. The Jets’ defense has adequate against the run (12^th in DVOA) and thrashed through the air (31^st in DVOA). Those numbers are likely to get worse after the Jets traded away their two best defensive players at the deadline. It’s hard to fault New York for starting a rebuild. They got a nice haul of picks for Gardner and Williams, but they are going jto be a train wreck for the rest of the year. The Browns are worst offensive team in the NFL, and after switching play callers it’s hard to know exactly how they’ll attack. But, with the state of their passing game, the Browns are likely to start off trying to win on the ground. Expect the Browns to run until they can’t, which has been their strategy most of the year. 

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

This game is ugly for DFS. I wouldn’t fault anyone for skipping over this one. These are two of the worst offenses in the league on teams that are desperately trying to lose to draft a QB next April. There isn’t much to get excited about, but in the interest of completeness, let’s look at this one for DFS. 

The Browns Passing Game 

Gabriel ($4,400) is basically free, but that’s where the positives end. Ownership seems to want Sanders to get a shot, and that creates a real risk for an in-game benching. The Jets have given up, but so have the Browns, and Gabriel isn’t the type of play I’ll ever make in DFS. How cheap can Jerry Jeudy ($3,900) get before we consider him? He’s the cheapest WR1 I can remember without an injury forcing a backup into an elevated role. It’s crazy to think that Jeudy was productive last year! He’s so cheap, and the matchup is so good that I can see an argument for playing him, but the floor is zero. I’d only use Jeudy if his salary made me love the rest of my roster. There are no other Browns WRs worth considering. David Njoku ($3,200) and Harold Fannin ($4,200) are the guys seeing the most targets. I can see using Njoku as a salary-saving punt, but if he doesn’t score, he’s going to hurt your roster. Fannin is priced too high for a TE on a bad offense. He could post a respectable score, but I’d rather save the money and play Njoku, even though Fannin looks like he has passed him as the TE1. Realistically, I’m not going to play anyone from this passing attack.  

The Browns Running Game

Judkins ($6,500) is the lone player worth considering in this game. The Browns want to win on the ground and the Jets just traded away their best player up front. Judkins should get over 20 opportunities, and if anyone is going to post a big score it’ll be him. Even though he’s worth considering, he’s still playing in an awful game environment, behind a terrible O-line, on the road, with a tiny total. Sometimes we see defenses play inspired ball after leadership “gives up,” taking an us-against-the-world mentality. There is some chance the Jets defense plays better than expected. I’m keeping Judkins on my list, but RB is the only position with some highly appealing options on this slate, which means it’s likely he won’t end up on my tighter builds. 

The Jets Passing Game 

Fields ($5,200) or Taylor ($4,700) will be under center this week. with my gut telling me it’ll be Fields after the Jets won their first game with him at the helm. Either way, it’s hard to get excited about playing a Jets QB against a defense that has given much better competition problems. I’d rather play Browns D ($2,900), which looks underpriced, than either of these QBs. Fields has posted some big scores this year, but those games came against Cin // Dal // Mia // Pit. while he has posted total duds against Car // Den // Buf.  Fields looks matchup-dependent, and the Browns aren’t an easy matchup. I’m not going to use a Jets QB regardless of who starts. Wilson ($6,100) looks likely to return this week, but it’s impossible to trust a WR in a bad game environment, coming off injury, when we don’t even know who is starting at QB. Wilson is a good player, but he’d have to be priced significantly cheaper or have a stronger matchup for me to consider him. Adonai Mitchell ($3,000) is min-priced and should take over a starting role opposite Wilson eventually, but there is way too much guesswork involved to use him this week. Mason Taylor ($3,200) is an ok punt option if saving salary at TE, but he is a punt, and you’ll need him to fall in the end zone to matter. I won’t play him unless he’s the only way to make the rest of my roster work. 

The Jets Running Game

Hall ($6,000) seems deeply unhappy with the organization based on his social media posts. It wouldn’t be shocking to see low effort or a phantom injury. His production to date is like Fields. He has posted good games against Cin // Dal // Mia // Pit and has posted duds in the others. The Browns’ run defense has been lights out, and I’m not interested in playing an upset Hall in a poor matchup. It’s also worth noting that Davis ($5,000) played nearly half the snaps the past two weeks. With Hall’s bad attitude becoming public, this could be the game Davis players over 50% of the snaps. I have no interest in this backfield.  

Final Thought

This game is ugly. It’s a battle between two teams who are trying to punt the season. We can’t be sure who is starting at QB for the Jets, and we can’t be sure Gabriel won’t get benched at halftime. The Jets offense is totally unappealing in a poor matchup against the Browns’ strong defense. Judkins is worth considering since he has the upside to get over 20 opportunities and the talent to make his chances matter, but he has a lot working against him. I understand using Judkins, especially in a correlation with the Browns defense, but that probably isn’t a play I’m going to make on my tighter builds. The Browns passing game is pathetic. I’m going to avoid this game entirely. 

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin did not practice Wednesday or Thursday – both seem to be trending towards missing Week 10.
• Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and are trending towards absences. 
• During the Patriots’ current six-game win streak, Drake Maye has attempted 30 or fewer passes in each game while averaging only 24.8 pass attempts per game.
• There doesn’t appear to be an ignition source present for this game environment, considering the current state of these two teams.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots now rank sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after starting the season in first, but they have been neutral to positive in each of their previous five games, and seven of nine in total. Much of that appears to be due to a general inability to run the football effectively, most notably tied to an offensive line blocking to the sixth-fewest yards before contact per attempt. After starting the season 1-2, the Patriots have rattled off six consecutive wins over the Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Browns, and Falcons, while holding all six of those opponents to 23 points or fewer (16.83 points allowed per game while holding three of the six opponents to 13 points). During this six-game win streak, Maye has attempted 30 passes or fewer in each game while averaging only 24.8 pass attempts per game. That offsets the high PROE value considering the team is averaging 61.4 plays per game behind one of the slowest paces in the league (28^th-ranked 31.1 seconds per play).

The Patriots have now utilized a “greater than lead back but lesser than workhorse” in each of their previous four games, with Stevenson handling snap rates of 72%, 75%, and 74% before being inactive in Week 9, where TreVeyon Henderson saw a 75% snap rate. That effectively tells me the team intends to utilize a primary back with a strict change-of-pace back moving forward. That is at least interesting considering Stevenson remained sidelined on Wednesday with his toe injury. If he remains out, I would expect Henderson to once again find that lead role against the Buccaneers. The problem for Henderson, and the New England run game, is a massively underperforming offensive line, as the Patriots backfield is now averaging only 3.9 yards per carry this season. The Buccaneers have held opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry (sixth) while facing 34.9 pass attempts and 23.9 rush attempts per game.

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Patriots are now near the middle of the pack in rate of man coverage faced but continue to be the most dangerous against man, averaging the fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against the primary shell (0.87). The Buccaneers are a “zone-blitz” team, in that they continue to carry above-average blitz rates (fifth-ranked 30.8%) but also carry elevated zone rates, most of which comes in the form of Cover-3. That leaves them with above-average rates of single-high, which is the split that catches my eye here. Stefon Diggs (2.77 yards per route run [YPRR]) and DeMario Douglas (2.73 YPRR) lead the team in underlying metrics against single-high coverages this season, while Kayshon Boutte, who is trending towards an absence, checks in third. Douglas has played more than 28% of the team’s offensive snaps only twice all season, coming all the way back in Weeks 1 and 3 (the team’s only two losses this year), as the team has shifted to borderline extreme rates of heavy personnel alignments. Hunter Henry (0.24 targets per route run [TPRR], 2.45 YPRR, 0.60 fantasy points per route run [FP/RR]), Diggs (0.27 TPRR, 2.54 YPRR, 0.59 FP/RR), and Douglas (0.27 TPRR, 3.52 YPRR, 0.83 FP/RR) are the team leaders against the blitz, which, again, we expect a lot of here. I expect rookie Kyle Williams to see an increase in snap rate with Boutte likely out, which should only serve to concentrate target volume on Diggs, Henry, and Douglas in this spot. That volume could be an issue, but the per-target efficiency should be there for the Patriots here.

HOW tampa bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Saints traded WR Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks in exchange for fourth- and fifth-round picks.
• The Panthers suddenly find themselves almost fully healthy following a Week 9 upset win over the Packers.
• Rico Dowdle has hit 30 DK points in three of his last five games, or three of three in games where he was the featured back. He did not practice Wednesday as he tends to a quad injury, but head coach Dave Canales has already said, “we’re counting on him this weekend.”
• These two offenses each rank in the bottom eight in DVOA, and both teams are in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA.

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How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

Tyler Shough is expected to start under center for the remainder of the season for the Saints following Spencer Rattler’s Week 8 benching. We have an extremely small sample size to work with, but the underlying metrics for Shough hint at the fact that the Saints probably got it right by starting Rattler heading into the season. But with the season now lost, and the team dealing away Shaheed at the deadline, they might as well see if they have anything in Shough the rest of the way. The Saints are coming off a blowout loss to the Rams in which they managed to run only 40 offensive plays, with their drives going three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out, touchdown, fumble, turnover on downs, interception. They somehow ran only 15 offensive plays in the second half of that loss. The Panthers are not in the same zip code as the Rams defensively, but they are in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA while allowing “only” 22.8 points and 316.6 total yards of offense per game – both are vast improvements compared to a season ago. Expect a run-balanced approach for the Saints as long as they are able here.

The two drives in which the Saints put up points against the Rams were started by a 29-yard run by Taysom Hill and a two-minute drill in which the Saints dropped back on every play. I don’t think that is incidental, more likely a signal of not falling behind the sticks and hoping Shough can pass his way out of long down-and-distance situations (spoiler, he most likely can’t). I don’t necessarily know what that means for the run game, but we also have a two-game sample of increased involvement from rookie running back Devin Neal, who has seen a 39% snap rate or higher in consecutive games as the team appears ready to see what they have in their youth. That has kept Alvin Kamara to a 59% snap rate or lower and only six carries in consecutive games. Even so, Neal has only three combined carries in those two games to go with four total targets on the season. There likely isn’t any room for GPP-worthy scores to emerge here against a Panthers opponent allowing 4.6 yards per carry.

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PFP the OWS pennant

We know the Panthers are going to utlize elevated rates of Cover-3 and zone, against which the Saints are averaging a lowly 0.28 FP/DB this season (fourth worst in the league, ahead of only the Panthers on the other side, the Titans, and the Browns). The Saints are coming off a game against another zone-heavy team in the Rams, against whom they managed only 224 yards of total offense, and they just traded away the player Shough fed a team-high nine targets (Shaheed). I would expect veteran Brandin Cooks to be forced into an elevated snap rate as he soaks up additional snaps on the perimeter, leaving recent acquisition Devaughn Vele to handle a higher slot snap rate. I also wouldn’t be shocked if the team increased its 12-personnel rates significantly, getting one of Jack Stoll or Foster Moreau on the field alongside Juwan Johnson at higher rates. The Panthers are a natural inside-funnel defense with the heavy rates of Cover-3 played, which should theoretically benefit Vele and the tight ends the most, although Chris Olave boasts a solid 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), 2.34 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.45 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) against Cover-3 this season. 

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Jacksonville acquired WR Jakobi Meyers this week as they deal with the loss of Travis Hunter and prepare for Brian Thomas Jr. also potentially missing time.
• The Jaguars offense has struggled early in games this season and has combined for only 9 first half points in their last three games.
• Houston has only allowed one opponent to score more than 20 points in a game.
• Texans WR Nico Collins has over 100 receiving yards in four straight games against the Jaguars.
• Houston will likely be without the services of quarterback C.J. Stroud (concussion) and will turn to Davis Mills as their starter.

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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars are a confusing team to evaluate and have had some wild swings throughout the 2025 season so far. They have five victories, three of which are against teams with winning records (KC, SF, and CAR). Two of their wins, however, were at home against this Texans team who had injury issues at the time and last week’s nail biter in overtime against the Raiders. Jacksonville also had an ugly loss to the Rams and lost games to the Seahawks and Bengals. Adding it all up, and the Jaguars have been roughly the team that we would expect them to be. Their new head coach, Liam Coen, does a great job and puts his team in position to win. Their defense has been solid and Trevor Lawrence has had struggles that generally keep the Jaguars from being a consistently high end team, but allows them to play with good opponents. Summing it all up, they are good enough to keep things interesting against most good teams, but not good enough to win handily against weaker opponents. This can be seen in the fact that six of eight Jaguars games this season have been decided by one possession.

The Jaguars rank 8th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and operate at the 10th fastest raw pace in the NFL. Considering the Jaguars have been in mostly close games this year, that raw pace stat is pretty accurate as they have almost always been able to operate at whatever pace they desire. Jacksonville ranks only 24th in yards per play, however, as their offense has struggled with consistency and efficiency all season. Their running game has been slightly above average, but lacked explosiveness most of the year. Meanwhile, their passing game has been inconsistent to put it kindly and will now be without prized rookie WR Travis Hunter and (likely) second year WR Brian Thomas Jr. These absences hurt the likelihood of Jacksonville generating explosive plays, and this is a Texans defense that makes you work for every yard. Houston is the top-ranked defense in DVOA this year, leading the league in pass defense DVOA and ranking a middling 16th in run defense DVOA. Make no mistake, however, about the Texans having a very good run defense. This will be anything but an easy matchup on the ground for the Jaguars, especially without their top vertical threats available to stretch the Houston defense. 

Jacksonville is up against a wall in this one, as they are going to struggle mightily to move the ball through the air and Houston will be able to suffocate their running game. The absence of Stroud on the other side of the ball and the fact that this was a low scoring game in the first matchup should allow the Jaguars to have a conservative approach early in this game. Expect a focus on their backfield and running game, with short area passing to wide receivers Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Washington will operate as the team’s slot receiver and should be Lawrence’s primary target, while Meyers will play mostly on the perimeter in what is a very tough matchup with Houston’s secondary. The Jaguars will want Lawrence to be careful with the ball, so we may see him tuck and run when things aren’t there more often than normal. In any regard, the Texans defense is likely to keep Jacksonville from creating many explosive plays and the Jaguars will need to convert third downs at a high rate to sustain drives.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Arizona has been playing their best offense of the season the last three weeks with QB Jacoby Brissett under center, and they have named him their starter going forward.
• The Cardinals passing game has centered around TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr., with a revolving cast of running backs operating at middling efficiency.
• The Seahawks defense has allowed more than 20 points in a game only once all season, in a 38-35 shootout with the Buccaneers while their defense dealt with several injuries.
• Seattle’s offense has been thriving as a low-volume, high-efficiency passing attack powered by offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and QB Sam Darnold.
• Seattle continues to struggle running the football, a weakness which is likely to be exposed if not fixed during the second half of the season.

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How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals offense seemed lost for much of the start of the season, capped off by an ugly loss at home to the Titans where they were incapable of consistently moving the ball and had multiple self-inflicted errors. After that game, the Cardinals turned to veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback in relief of Kyler Murray who suffered a foot injury. The Arizona offense has looked completely different since the switch, scoring 27, 23, and 27 points against the Colts, Packers, and Cowboys. For context, the Cardinals had not scored more than 21 points of offense in a game all season prior to this (they had a defensive touchdown in their 27-22 victory over the Panthers). This is a completely different team and offense than the one that lost 23-20 to the Seahawks at home on a Thursday night in September.

The Cardinals are fifth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks, and third for the season. On the surface, it would seem that they are playing similarly under both quarterbacks. However, the structure of those passes is quite different. Murray’s short stature and preferred playing style meant the Cardinals played primarily out of the shotgun, whereas Brissett has allowed them to play under center at a much higher rate. This change has helped the timing and versatility of their offense as they force defenses to respect multiple aspects of the field at once. Brissett is also pushing the ball down the field at a MUCH higher rate than Murray was. Brissett ranks 5th in the NFL at 8.6 average intended air yards per pass attempt, while Murray was at a putrid 5.9 – higher than only Dillon Gabriel and Aaron Rodgers. Murray was unwilling or unable to pull the trigger and would often revert to just checking the ball down or running around and hoping something would open up. Brissett plays the quarterback position how it is supposed to be and while his success these last three weeks may regress a bit, his approach and style is much more predictable and helps everyone on the offense do their jobs at a higher level.

Arizona ranks 25th in rushing offense DVOA and 28th in PFF run blocking grade. They have been playing without their two best running backs in James Conner and Trey Benson, so their lack of efficiency shouldn’t be surprising. This week they face Seattle’s second ranked run defense, so it should once again be tough sledding. This means Arizona will have to move the ball through the air. Seattle ranks 31st in the NFL in blitz rate and 4th in zone coverage rate, as they tend to only send their four primary rushers and leave seven men in coverage. They do a very good job of eliminating deep passing and were exposed on the back end only once, by the Buccaneers in a game where they were missing three starters from their secondary and the Bucs completed multiple downfield passes that were a very high degree of difficulty. This should force the Cardinals passing game to keep things to the short and intermediate areas, with McBride likely the engine of the offense and at the heart of any successful drives. This matchup may be tougher for Harrison, while Brissett will also be willing to spread things around to ancillary receivers in the short areas against Seattle’s zone coverage schemes.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This is a huge NFC West showdown between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations.
• These two teams met just a few weeks ago, with the shorthanded 49ers pulling off a road upset in overtime on a short week.
• San Francisco’s defense has surrendered 23+ points in five of their last six games since losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
• The Rams and Seahawks are the only two teams that rank top-5 in the NFL in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has rushed for over 100 yards in two of three games since George Kittle returned to the lineup.

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams continued their strong season in Week 9 with a clean and efficient win over the Saints. The Rams dominated the time of possession and were a high-octane offense in that game, scoring touchdowns on five of their first seven possessions and mixing in a 39-yard missed field goal as well. As discussed last week, the spot was one that the Rams could and should dominate and they did exactly what great teams do – took it to an inferior opponent in all aspects of the game. They now have this showdown with the 49ers and next week’s game against the Seahawks to try to assert themselves atop their division. The first time the Rams played the 49ers was on a short week and the 49ers fans turned it into an away game for Matthew Stafford and company. San Francisco was shorthanded in that game on both sides of the ball, but they did have their defensive captain Fred Warner at that time. San Francisco has surrendered point totals of 30, 10, 26, and 24 in the four games since losing Warner while facing a below average slate of offenses.

The Los Angeles offense is a well oiled machine and can be broken down into essentially four buckets when considering their usage. Those four buckets would be:: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, the backfield, and everybody else. Puka is their movable chess piece and most dynamic player. His ability and versatility is what really makes them tick. Adams is also versatile and his ability to line up in different positions allows them to fully maximize Nacua’s skill set and attack matchups and coverage schemes. Adams is primarily used as an intermediate and downfield threat, while also being their primary target in the receiving game near the goal line (Adams leads all NFL players in end zone targets and has five touchdowns in his last two games. The backfield is still a primary part of this offensive scheme and Kyren Williams has been more efficient this year thanks to the emergence of Blake Corum to keep him fresh. The Rams have an underrated supporting cast of other WRs and TEs who also contribute and make defenses pay for giving too much attention to their “Big 3”.

The 49ers defense is predicated on being solid and forcing opponents to be sharp and consistent to sustain drives. The Rams had no trouble moving the ball in the first matchup, posting 456 total yards of offense but making critical mistakes that cost them the game. The Rams lost two fumbles deep in 49ers territory and also missed a field goal, otherwise Los Angeles easily could have put up 30+. The Rams defense also played below their usual level in that game on the short week, allowing the 49ers to dominate the time of possession. Finally, the Rams failed on a 4th and 1 in overtime due to a questionable play call, once again missing a critical opportunity. This is all to say that the Rams should have no trouble moving the ball against this 49ers defense without Warner after a full week of prep and their usual recipe of focusing their offense around Puka, Davante, and the running game should have them in position to produce at a high level if they don’t make the same uncharacteristic mistakes.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• This game is a rematch of last season’s Divisional Round game where the Commanders upset the Lions and ended their 15-2 season.
• Detroit enters this week off a surprising home loss to the Vikings in Week 8.
• Washington lost QB Jayden Daniels to a significant elbow injury on Sunday night, forcing them to turn back to Marcus Mariota for the foreseeable future.
• The Commanders will also be without wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey for this game, as they are 
• Washington’s defense has only held two of nine opponents below 24 points and has been extremely beatable this season.

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How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions came out of their Week 8 bye with a whimper at home against the Vikings, struggling to get anything going offensively throughout the majority of the game with the exceptions being their first and last drives. Detroit opened things up with a 6-play, 72-yard touchdown drive and their last possession was a 5-play, 69-yard touchdown drive. In the middle, they scored only 10 points and amassed 164 yards on 51 plays as Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores confused and stifled them and left them searching for answers all game. They only turned the ball over once, but Jared Goff was under pressure often and took 5 sacks. This was a somewhat surprising result, but we have seen the Vikings get the best of teams before and it isn’t necessarily a signal of problems for Detroit going forward. We also often see teams struggle a bit to get back in rhythm after their bye week, something the Lions will look to get back on track with in Week 10.

They will certainly have the opportunity to bounce back in this matchup with Washington, who is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball and was shredded by the Seahawks on Sunday night. The Commanders rank 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed, as only the Bears and Bengals defense are worse than the 6.2 yards an average play against Washington goes for. The Lions offense, on the other hand, ranks 7th in the NFL at 5.8 yards per play. Detroit’s offense thrives when their running game gets going, as it opens up all levels of their offense and keeps Jared Goff with clean pockets. The Commanders have allowed 128 or more rushing yards in all but two games this season, and Detroit’s elite offensive line should have no trouble opening up lanes for the dynamic RB pairing of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Washington has missed the second most tackles in the NFL, with the dynamic duo likely able to get to the second level often from their blocking and scheme they should have chances to break free for chunk plays on the ground this week.

Detroit should have success against the Commanders through the air as well with advantageous matchups throughout their passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is very good against all coverages, but is especially dangerous against man coverage that is less than elite. Washington plays the 8th highest rate of man coverage in the league and ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade. ARSB should have no trouble getting open in the intermediate areas of the field and helping the Lions sustain drives. Tight end Sam LaPorta and wide receiver Jameson Williams are the other primary targets and this could be a matchup that allows Williams to shake free after we saw the success Seattle found downfield last week. The Lions offense will revolve their running game and build out from there. The backfield and ARSB will be the focal points, with both likely finding success early and often. Expect some calculated deep shots as well as the Lions should have early down success that opens up the playbook on second or third and short. Goff is likely to have a similar low-volume, high-efficiency outing like Sam Darnold was able to do last week.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football sees the Steelers heading to Los Angeles for a 45.5 total game with the Chargers favored by 3. The Steelers are somewhat surprisingly sitting on top of their division at 5-3 (and the only team with a winning record, to boot!), while the Chargers are 6-3. This is a battle of two good teams, which I would not have guessed prior to the season! 

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side of things, Kimani Vidal has had a stranglehold on the RB1 role since Omarion Hampton went down. He’s had the role for four games, and in those four games Hassan Haskins backed him up for two of them and had a grand total of 10 touches, then Haskins got hurt and Jaret Patterson assumed the RB2 role, handling 20 total touches (but with 15 of those coming in the 4th quarter of games). Vidal’s range of outcomes and effectiveness has varied wildly, though, as he’s seen touch counts of 22, 14, 25, and 13. In two of those games, he ran extremely well and racked up over 100 rushing yards; in the other two games, he ran very poorly and accounted for just 50 total rushing yards in both games combined. There’s a bit of Jekyll and Hyde going on here with Vidal, and part of it is certainly due to the status of Joe Alt, as he’s the key offensive lineman for the Chargers, and the offense as a whole (both run and pass) looks much weaker without him. Alt is, sadly, out for the season, which is likely to create some difficulties for the Chargers against the Steelers and their above-average pass rush. I can’t quite classify Vidal as a confident, solid RB1 play, because while he’s had two games of elite workloads, he’s also had two games of disappointing workloads. This included one in which he was game-scripted out in a 14-point loss against the Colts, but it also included last week’s disappointing performance against the Titans and their mediocre run defense. There’s a lot more volatility here than with most home favorite 3-down running backs. I do, however, think Vidal’s price of $8,800 accounts for that uncertainty and leaves him firmly positioned as a strong option. Patterson fits the “RB2 in Showdown” profile, though I really wish he had even just a target or two to help bolster his PPR floor. He’s pretty fragile, given that 75% of his carries have come in the 4th quarter of wins and that he hasn’t yet been used in the passing game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Speaking of the passing game, the Chargers will really be missing Alt here as Justin Herbert’s yards per attempt drops from 8.3 (elite) with Alt to 6.5 (below average) without him. The matchup here is really nice against a Pittsburgh defense that has faced a league-high 40.5 pass attempts per game, as well as allowed a league-high (by a wide margin) 278 passing yards per game – bit of weakness on weakness here as we get the Chargers without Alt against a Steelers pass D that is giving it up to everyone. Los Angeles has four talented pass catchers, and that’s caused them to operate without one alpha guy this year, with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and recent breakout tight end Oronde Gadsden all sharing passing game work. Ladd is the safest of the wide receivers, leading all pass catchers in snaps and routes while tying for the team lead in targets with Allen. He’s also the most expensive by a wide margin. Worth noting is that after seeing a slow start to the season, Ladd’s last four games have seen target counts of 7, 10, 15, and 9, so it’s possible things are swinging back around to Ladd being more of a clear WR1 rather than mixed up with everyone else. Allen is in a weird spot because he’s playing the fewest snaps of the wide receivers but earning targets at a high rate while on the field, leading to a healthy target share but on modest route participation. Of some concern is that Allen played just 37% and 25% of the snaps in Los Angeles last two games, one of which was a blowout win, so I’m willing to set that aside, but 37% of snaps in a competitive game last week raises some eyebrows. He did just have a massive 14 target game in Week 7, so I’m not THAT concerned, but it does give me a bit of pause. Otherwise, I’d be very, very interested in the team’s target leader at just $8k. Johnston is the deeper perimeter receiver and the only main guy with an aDOT over even 9 yards (Johnston’s at 12), but he’s also the one with the starkest splits with and without Alt, as when facing more pressure, it’s hard for Justin Herbert to be patient enough to let longer downfield routes to develop. Johnson posted scores of 14.9 or more DK points in four straight weeks to start the season, but since then, he’s been much more muted. We’ve also seen rookie Tre’ Harris playing more in the last couple of games, with his snaps ticking up to 59% in the Week 8 blowout and 46% last week, which was his highest mark of the season, not including a blowout win or when Johnston missed a game in Week 6. Those snaps have come at the expense of Allen, which creates some concern for pairing them together. I don’t think I’d outright disallow them from appearing in rosters together, but I’d use rules to try and discourage it.

At tight end, Oronde Gadsden has been a breakout star. He started to emerge in Week 3 and then took over the role from Week 6 onwards with 75%+ snaps in all of the team’s last four games. In that time, Gadsden has 5+ catches and 68+ yards in every game, and he’s caught 24 of 27 targets (likely unsustainable, but impressive nonetheless). He’s for real, and he’s also tied for 2nd on the team in red zone targets with 9 despite not playing 304 total offensive snaps on the season compared to 488 for Ladd, 435 for Johnston, and 343 for Allen. The kid is impressive. TE2 Tucker Fisk is a pure punt option as a blocking tight end with 3 targets and 1 catch on the year. Allen, Johnson, and Gadsden are all priced within $1k of each other, while Ladd is $1,400 more than the next most expensive guy, so I suppose I should rank them:

• I’ll go Ladd first as I think his role is the safest.
• If I had confidence Allen’s role would be what he’s had all year, he would be second, but I do think there’s some risk that Harris is chipping away at him a little bit, so I’ll actually go Gadsden second (it also helps that he’s the cheapest)
• Then Allen, then Johnston, who I think is the most impacted by Alt’s absence and thus has the riskiest profile of the bunch.
• The Chargers are blessed with pass catching talent, though, and all four of these guys are very viable. 

PITTSBURGH

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 wraps up with two of the league’s best teams facing off as the Eagles visit Green Bay. This game has a 45.5 point total with the Packers favored by 1.5, and it should be a really interesting game as both teams are on top of their respective divisions. We have a close spread and two good defenses, so odds are this game remains close throughout. The odds of a blowout are always present (it’s a football game after all), but most paths in this one have it remaining within 1 or 2 scores. 

GREEN BAY

On the Packers side of things, Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles in the league. For the first five weeks of the season, Jacobs played no fewer than 65% of the snaps and handled 20+ opportunities in every game. He picked up a calf injury that he played through, which dropped his snap rate down in the 50s and his touches to 14, 16, and 22, but he should be over that (practiced in full this week with no injury tag), and I expect he’ll go back towards the role he had at the start of the year. The Eagles D has been better against the pass than the run, and with Tucker Kraft hurt (more on that later) and Jordan Love struggling without him, it seems likely to me that Green Bay will lean more heavily on their bell cow back in this matchup. Emanuel Wilson at $2,600 is a reasonable “RB2 in Showdown” type, though just note his increase in touches and snaps lately is likely due to Jacobs’ calf injury. I expect he’ll go back down, and while at $2,600 he’s still viable, he might be getting a bit overprojected here based on his last three games. I’ll have him in my player pool, but if what I’m seeing around the industry holds up, he’s likely to be very chalky as most projection services have him as far and away the best cheap play on the slate (and one of the best overall point per dollar plays). We’ll have to see where his point projection lands closer to kickoff, but if it holds where I’m seeing it now (in the 5-7 DK point range across the industry), I’m probably going to shoot to be underweight at what I expect will be elevated ownership.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, oh boy, Tucker Kraft’s absence really hurts this offense. They’re only averaging 5.1 yards per play without Kraft, and Jordan Love has also been awful against pressure, ranking 33rd in the league in yards per attempt when pressured (reminder: the NFL has 32 teams). The Eagles have already been generating pressure at an above-average rate, and they just traded for Jaelan Phillips to help boost that rate. Now, it’s worth noting that how an offense plays without a key player, either in a few snaps per game (for a guy who rarely leaves the field like Tucker) or when losing a key guy to a mid-game injury, is different from how that offense might perform with plenty of time to game plan and prepare for the absence. I expect the Packers won’t be QUITE so bad as they’ve been without Kraft so far, as they’ll be able to prep for it, but it’s still a big loss. What they’re left with is Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as clear top wide receivers, and then Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks both look very questionable. Golden practiced in a limited fashion earlier in the week but then got a DNP on Friday; he’s apparently “fighting to play” per beat reporters, but who knows. Wicks returned to practice and got in several limited practices. I’d guess Wicks is more likely to play than Golden, but who knows. What’s important is that Kraft vacates a large role as he was clearly the top Packers pass catcher, and that really boosts Doubs, who is $8k and leads the team in target share with Kraft off the field. While we have to worry overall about the Green Bay passing offense, Doubs himself is in a good spot. Watson is going to be more volatile as a boom/bust play who operates on lower target volume. We saw a nice “boom” last week with a 52 yard reception, but we also only saw 4 total targets.

Golden, I guess, is likely to sit, as I just don’t see the Packers risking their prized rookie, and the Friday DNP makes me think it’s highly likely he’s out, but if he plays, I view him as extremely risky given the injury and, of course, how the Packers already rotate their wide receivers heavily. I don’t normally try to bet on diminished roles due to injury situations, but this one just feels likely to be a spot where he might play less than his normal complement of snaps. Wicks return should push Savion Williams back to the bench as they both primarily run out of the slot, and while Wicks is both cheap and talented, Philly has given up very little production to opposing slot receivers. I generally prefer attacking them on the perimeter. If Golden ends up sitting, Malik Heath could play more, as he’s a direct perimeter receiver backup. He’ll still play behind Doubs and Watson, but with how the Packers rotate guys, I could see him playing ~50% of the snaps at $3k. I wish he was cheaper. Doubs is the clear top guy here, then Watson, then Wicks, then Golden if he plays.

At tight end, the role will be split between Luke Musgrave and John Fitzpatrick, with Musgrave the favorite to lead in snaps and routes. Philly has been extremely good against tight ends, and Musgrave is already priced up because we’ve known all week that Kraft is out, while Fitzpatrick is a dart throw who has just 5 targets on the year. 

PHILADELPHIA