Divisional Matchups


Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 4:35pm Eastern

Rams (
19.75) at

Packers (
26.25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Key Matchups
Rams Run D
3rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
5th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
19th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
4th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
14th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
20th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW::

The top two teams in the regular season in average time of possession (GB: first-ranked 32:32, LAR: second-ranked 32:01)High profile injuries to both teams (David Bakhtiari for the Packers and Aaron Donald for the Rams)Two ball-possession teams; expect a decrease to the overall offensive plays run from scrimmage hereBoth teams should largely be afforded the opportunity to attack this game in their preferred manors

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Rams have two key players with injuries of note heading into a Divisional round matchup with the Packers; defensive . . .

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Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 8:15pm Eastern

Ravens (
24.0) at

Bills (
26.0)

Over/Under 50.0

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Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
12th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
17th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW::

Two contrasting styles with respect to play-calling tendencies and offensive game planSaid tendencies remain rather sticky in various game scripts (the Ravens lead the league in rush rate when trailing (52%) and the Bills rank third in pass play rate when leading (58%))This leaves us with a very clear picture on how each team is likeliest to attack here (“guaranteed points”)A lot to unpack regarding likely chalk running back Devin Singletary

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Outside linebacker Matthew Judon, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Marcus Peters highlight the players yet to practice . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 3:05pm Eastern

Browns (
23.0) at

Chiefs (
33.0)

Over/Under 56.0

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Key Matchups
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
10th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
25th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
29th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
12th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW::

Of the remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs and Browns are the worst-rated defenses (22nd and 25th overall DVOA)Might be some misconceptions surrounding the Kansas City pass-catchers to take advantage of (Denzel Ward is expected back from the COVID list, but is not being used in shadow coverage this season as the Browns have shifted to a 4-3 base cover-3 defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Joe Woods)The strength of Kansas City’s defense is the pressure they create up front, an area that is once again muted against the top-graded offensive line . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 6:40pm Eastern

Bucs (
24.5) at

Saints (
27.5)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
1st DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
5th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
12th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Saints Run D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
10th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
3rd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
5th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW::

Defense wins championships, baby; this should be a good one (NO ranks second in overall defensive DVOA while TB ranks fifth)Both teams are likely to tilt towards the pass, with the Bucs attacking downfield heavily and the Saints looking to hit the short areasLikely defensive struggle as each team jockeys for field position

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Buccaneers will welcome back inside linebacker Devin White, who together with Lavonte David form one of the best run-stopping inside linebacker groupings in the NFL. The biggest injury news from Tampa involves outside linebacker Jason . . .

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