Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 4:35pm Eastern
Rams ( 19.75) at
Packers ( 26.25)
Over/Under 46.0
Key Matchups
Rams Run D
7th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carryPackers Run O
3rd DVOA/11th Yards per carryRams Pass D
20th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per passPackers Pass O
15th DVOA/21st Yards per passPackers Run D
32nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carryRams Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carryPackers Pass D
8th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per passRams Pass O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
The top two teams in the regular season in average time of possession (GB: first-ranked 32:32, LAR: second-ranked 32:01)High profile injuries to both teams (David Bakhtiari for the Packers and Aaron Donald for the Rams)Two ball-possession teams; expect a decrease to the overall offensive plays run from scrimmage hereBoth teams should largely be afforded the opportunity to attack this game in their preferred manors
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Rams have two key players with injuries of note heading into a Divisional round matchup with the Packers; defensive . . .
Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 8:15pm Eastern
Ravens ( 24.0) at
Bills ( 26.0)
Over/Under 50.0
Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carryBills Run O
11th DVOA/2nd Yards per carryRavens Pass D
11th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per passBills Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per passBills Run D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carryRavens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carryBills Pass D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per passRavens Pass O
16th DVOA/17th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Two contrasting styles with respect to play-calling tendencies and offensive game planSaid tendencies remain rather sticky in various game scripts (the Ravens lead the league in rush rate when trailing (52%) and the Bills rank third in pass play rate when leading (58%))This leaves us with a very clear picture on how each team is likeliest to attack here (“guaranteed points”)A lot to unpack regarding likely chalk running back Devin Singletary
HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::
Outside linebacker Matthew Judon, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Marcus Peters highlight the players yet to practice . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 3:05pm Eastern
Browns ( 23.0) at
Chiefs ( 33.0)
Over/Under 56.0
Key Matchups
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carryChiefs Run O
17th DVOA/7th Yards per carryBrowns Pass D
15th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per passChiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per passChiefs Run D
17th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carryBrowns Run O
8th DVOA/13th Yards per carryChiefs Pass D
22nd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per passBrowns Pass O
11th DVOA/17th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Of the remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs and Browns are the worst-rated defenses (22nd and 25th overall DVOA)Might be some misconceptions surrounding the Kansas City pass-catchers to take advantage of (Denzel Ward is expected back from the COVID list, but is not being used in shadow coverage this season as the Browns have shifted to a 4-3 base cover-3 defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Joe Woods)The strength of Kansas City’s defense is the pressure they create up front, an area that is once again muted against the top-graded offensive line . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 6:40pm Eastern
Bucs ( 24.5) at
Saints ( 27.5)
Over/Under 52.0
Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
13th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carrySaints Run O
22nd DVOA/19th Yards per carryBuccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per passSaints Pass O
19th DVOA/7th Yards per passSaints Run D
21st DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carryBuccaneers Run O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per carrySaints Pass D
11th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per passBuccaneers Pass O
11th DVOA/28th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Defense wins championships, baby; this should be a good one (NO ranks second in overall defensive DVOA while TB ranks fifth)Both teams are likely to tilt towards the pass, with the Bucs attacking downfield heavily and the Saints looking to hit the short areasLikely defensive struggle as each team jockeys for field position
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Buccaneers will welcome back inside linebacker Devin White, who together with Lavonte David form one of the best run-stopping inside linebacker groupings in the NFL. The biggest injury news from Tampa involves outside linebacker Jason . . .
