Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 4:35pm Eastern
Rams ( 19.75) at
Packers ( 26.25)
Over/Under 46.0
Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carryPackers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carryRams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per passPackers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per passPackers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carryRams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carryPackers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per passRams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
The top two teams in the regular season in average time of possession (GB: first-ranked 32:32, LAR: second-ranked 32:01)High profile injuries to both teams (David Bakhtiari for the Packers and Aaron Donald for the Rams)Two ball-possession teams; expect a decrease to the overall offensive plays run from scrimmage hereBoth teams should largely be afforded the opportunity to attack this game in their preferred manors
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Rams have two key players with injuries of note heading into a Divisional round matchup with the Packers; defensive . . .
Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 8:15pm Eastern
Ravens ( 24.0) at
Bills ( 26.0)
Over/Under 50.0
Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carryBills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carryRavens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per passBills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per passBills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carryRavens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carryBills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per passRavens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Two contrasting styles with respect to play-calling tendencies and offensive game planSaid tendencies remain rather sticky in various game scripts (the Ravens lead the league in rush rate when trailing (52%) and the Bills rank third in pass play rate when leading (58%))This leaves us with a very clear picture on how each team is likeliest to attack here (“guaranteed points”)A lot to unpack regarding likely chalk running back Devin Singletary
HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::
Outside linebacker Matthew Judon, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Marcus Peters highlight the players yet to practice . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 3:05pm Eastern
Browns ( 23.0) at
Chiefs ( 33.0)
Over/Under 56.0
Key Matchups
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carryChiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carryBrowns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per passChiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per passChiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carryBrowns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carryChiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per passBrowns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Of the remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs and Browns are the worst-rated defenses (22nd and 25th overall DVOA)Might be some misconceptions surrounding the Kansas City pass-catchers to take advantage of (Denzel Ward is expected back from the COVID list, but is not being used in shadow coverage this season as the Browns have shifted to a 4-3 base cover-3 defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Joe Woods)The strength of Kansas City’s defense is the pressure they create up front, an area that is once again muted against the top-graded offensive line . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 6:40pm Eastern
Bucs ( 24.5) at
Saints ( 27.5)
Over/Under 52.0
Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carrySaints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carryBuccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per passSaints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per passSaints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carryBuccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carrySaints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per passBuccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Defense wins championships, baby; this should be a good one (NO ranks second in overall defensive DVOA while TB ranks fifth)Both teams are likely to tilt towards the pass, with the Bucs attacking downfield heavily and the Saints looking to hit the short areasLikely defensive struggle as each team jockeys for field position
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Buccaneers will welcome back inside linebacker Devin White, who together with Lavonte David form one of the best run-stopping inside linebacker groupings in the NFL. The biggest injury news from Tampa involves outside linebacker Jason . . .
