Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 4:35pm Eastern
Rams ( 19.75) at
Packers ( 26.25)
Key Matchups
Rams Run D
3rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carryPackers Run O
5th DVOA/2nd Yards per carryRams Pass D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per passPackers Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per passPackers Run D
19th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carryRams Run O
4th DVOA/6th Yards per carryPackers Pass D
14th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per passRams Pass O
20th DVOA/12th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
The top two teams in the regular season in average time of possession (GB: first-ranked 32:32, LAR: second-ranked 32:01)High profile injuries to both teams (David Bakhtiari for the Packers and Aaron Donald for the Rams)Two ball-possession teams; expect a decrease to the overall offensive plays run from scrimmage hereBoth teams should largely be afforded the opportunity to attack this game in their preferred manors
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Rams have two key players with injuries of note heading into a Divisional round matchup with the Packers; defensive . . .
Kickoff Saturday, Jan 16th 8:15pm Eastern
Ravens ( 24.0) at
Bills ( 26.0)
Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
12th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carryBills Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carryRavens Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per passBills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per passBills Run D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carryRavens Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carryBills Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per passRavens Pass O
17th DVOA/11th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Two contrasting styles with respect to play-calling tendencies and offensive game planSaid tendencies remain rather sticky in various game scripts (the Ravens lead the league in rush rate when trailing (52%) and the Bills rank third in pass play rate when leading (58%))This leaves us with a very clear picture on how each team is likeliest to attack here (“guaranteed points”)A lot to unpack regarding likely chalk running back Devin Singletary
HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::
Outside linebacker Matthew Judon, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Marcus Peters highlight the players yet to practice . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 3:05pm Eastern
Browns ( 23.0) at
Chiefs ( 33.0)
Key Matchups
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carryChiefs Run O
10th DVOA/7th Yards per carryBrowns Pass D
25th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per passChiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per passChiefs Run D
29th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carryBrowns Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carryChiefs Pass D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per passBrowns Pass O
12th DVOA/8th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Of the remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs and Browns are the worst-rated defenses (22nd and 25th overall DVOA)Might be some misconceptions surrounding the Kansas City pass-catchers to take advantage of (Denzel Ward is expected back from the COVID list, but is not being used in shadow coverage this season as the Browns have shifted to a 4-3 base cover-3 defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Joe Woods)The strength of Kansas City’s defense is the pressure they create up front, an area that is once again muted against the top-graded offensive line . . .
Kickoff Sunday, Jan 17th 6:40pm Eastern
Bucs ( 24.5) at
Saints ( 27.5)
Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
1st DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carrySaints Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carryBuccaneers Pass D
5th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per passSaints Pass O
12th DVOA/9th Yards per passSaints Run D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carryBuccaneers Run O
10th DVOA/5th Yards per carrySaints Pass D
3rd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per passBuccaneers Pass O
5th DVOA/6th Yards per passGAME OVERVIEW::
Defense wins championships, baby; this should be a good one (NO ranks second in overall defensive DVOA while TB ranks fifth)Both teams are likely to tilt towards the pass, with the Bucs attacking downfield heavily and the Saints looking to hit the short areasLikely defensive struggle as each team jockeys for field position
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Buccaneers will welcome back inside linebacker Devin White, who together with Lavonte David form one of the best run-stopping inside linebacker groupings in the NFL. The biggest injury news from Tampa involves outside linebacker Jason . . .