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OWS Fam!

Welcome to Week 4.

We had another big weekend for the OWS Fam in Week 3 (the Binks Channel was loaded up with screenshots!) — and more importantly, the Reflection Channel was full of OWS members who have been seeing huge steps forward in their play. I’m truly grateful to be part of this magical community…and I love the way we keep storming the leaderboards. Let’s do it again this week!

Week 4 Angles ::

Week 4 brings us a unique slate, with our first week of thin value on DraftKings coinciding with a week that includes a wide array of attractive “pay up” options.

Not only does the quarterback position provide us with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields (he still has a high ceiling), and Joe Burrow, but the more “shoo-in” bets among these guys have tougher matchups (Josh Allen is taking on a Vic Fangio defense that will try to force him to take the underneath throws — something he’s been praised relentlessly for doing so far this season // Jalen Hurts is taking on a competitive Washington defense // Lamar Jackson is taking on a scary Cleveland unit // Tua is taking on Buffalo on the road), while some of the riskier bets are in great spots (Fields is playing Denver // Burrow — and his calf strain — has the matchup we love targeting against Tennessee). This can pull the top of the QB field down a bit while raising the “bottom” of the QB field, making it tougher to identify the “clear top plays” on the slate.

The wide array of attractive “pay up” options continues at wide receiver, where we not only have Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill in tougher spots, but also have Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Ja’Marr Chase in good spots (with lower-consistency slate-breakers like A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, and CeeDee Lamb mixed in).

Tight end is relatively barren, and running back is full of viable directions, all of which could lead to ownership being more spread-out than normal, as nothing leaps off the screen this week the way LAC/MIN did in Week 3.

Six of the 24 teams playing on the Main Slate feature implied team totals of 25.0 or higher, with intriguing teams in the Vikings (24.5) and the Broncos (24.5 — in a potential get-right spot against the Bears) set up right behind them.

The 49ers top the slate with an implied team total of 29.0, at home against the supposedly lowly Cardinals. (Can the Cardinals hold down the 49ers’ offense? Unlikely. Can the Cardinals somehow find a way to keep this game competitive into the 4th quarter, forcing a longer stretch of aggression than we typically get from this dominant 49ers team? Hmmmm…)

The Bills (28.5) are at home against the Dolphins (26.0) in a divisional matchup that could easily disappoint, but that also can’t be ignored in the “could be the game you had to have” category.

The Chargers (27.0) are not expected to have much trouble with the Raiders — and if Jimmy Garoppolo can clear concussion protocol and save us from Brian Hoyer, the Raiders might not have too much trouble with the Chargers, either.

The Eagles (25.75) are hosting the Commanders in a game that could present Philly with some roadblocks on their way to a Ceiling Outcome…but that can also be overcome by the Eagles for a big game (Jalen Hurts went 340-3 through the air the first time these teams met last year).

And then we have the (same old) Cowboys (25.0), taking on the tough defense of the Patriots at home.

Behind these games, we also have the Rams (22.75) and Colts (23.75) playing in a game that could skew to the upside, and we have the Bengals (21.75) likely forced to rely on Burrow, Chase, and Higgins in a pass-funnel matchup that invites deep passing — with the implied team total likely to drive down ownership on these pieces compared to the upside presented by the matchup.

Even beyond these spots, there are viable spots to consider (cheap Panthers against the Vikings? // C.J. Stroud and his underpriced pass catchers holding their own at home against the Steelers? // Jameis Winston feeding Chris Olave downfield against the Bucs?), which gives us one of the more wide-open slates we are likely to have this year.

While my goal will be to identify my “absolute favorite spots” by the end of the week, I’ll also aim to remain cognizant of what this slate is providing. (In spots where I’m forcing a decision, I’ll acknowledge the lack of clarity and give my rosters more leeway to “fall as they may.”) And I’ll aim to set myself up for this by casting a broad net around this week — not crossing anything off my list in the early-going, but being open to the upside available across all areas of the slate.

Price Drop :: Bink Machine

It’s been awesome to see Discord and Twitter lighting up with positive feedback on the Bink Machine — with quite a few OWS members having “best-ever” single-entry/three-max showings last week after leveraging the Bink Machine for their builds.

With three weeks in the rear-view mirror, we’ve dropped the rest-of-season price to $129. That’s less than $6.80 per weekend (rest-of-season + playoffs). If you’re playing enough volume (anywhere over $50 per weekend), it’s pretty easy to justify the cost for the edge gained.

If you’re not sure, grab a Week pass — but we’re always generous with refunds as well, so your better move, mathematically, is to scoop rest-of-year access and ask for a refund next week if it isn’t a fit.

Again: it’s a powerful tool for SE/3-max play. (And of course, it’s great for MME.)

Hopefully I’ll see you in the Bink Machine this week!

I’ll see you on the site throughout the weekend.

And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards Sunday!

-JM

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

In the 2020 season, teams averaged 2.88 touchdowns per game. That touchdown rate continually dipped until last year when NFL teams averaged 2.43 touchdowns per game across the league. This year, that number is down to 2.30 touchdowns per team per game. And yet, last week saw an absolute offensive explosion where seven teams carried Vegas implied team totals approaching, or surpassing, 28 points (four touchdowns). Predictably, the scores needed to win GPPs in Week 3 dwarfed those required during the first two weeks of the season (mid-290s in Week 3 compared to mid-230s in Week 1 and Week 2).

This week, three teams are implied for 26.0 points or higher, while it was seven teams last week. Why is that important? The field has the sweet taste of outlier offensive production in their collective mouths this week, and it is showing through in early ownership projections. People want to jam in the studs that are coming off career performances (Keenan Allen and Davante Adams, to name a couple) and scrape the bottom of the barrel for any possibility of perceived value (more on this below).

Find those game environments and team situations that can harbor elite fantasy output, friends!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS. EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

KEENAN ALLEN

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Keenan Allen is on a torrid stretch over the previous two games in the absence of Austin Ekeler. We’ve seen the career splits with and without Ekeler on the field, but Keenan now gets to play a haphazard Raiders defense that runs tons of zone coverage without both Ekeler and Mike Williams on the field. We spoke last week about how condensed this Chargers pass offense gets with one of the big three missing, and Keenan is now the last man standing. He’s coming off an insane 48.5 fantasy outburst (DK scoring) and he did that without catching a touchdown. He’s in a great spot. That said, there are some interesting angles at play when we talk about leveraging the mega-chalk on a slate like this.

KYREN WILLIAMS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE CHALK NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Kyren Williams has been on the field for all but four offensive snaps over the previous two games for the Rams, which is borderline unheard of in today’s game (it’s actually quite funny that the two backs that are currently seeing a backfield all to themselves are Kyren and Zack Moss – they are also playing each other this week). Williams has seen all but one running back opportunity during the previous two weeks. The workload is all but set in stone at this point but the matchup is a concern. The Colts have allowed opposing backs to average just 3.5 yards per carry this season and currently sit at seventh in the league in rush DVOA. Offsetting those concerns are 17 targets during his recent two-game stretch, alleviating the need for multiple touchdowns to return a GPP-worthy score.

DAVANTE ADAMS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Davante Adams is another wide receiver on this slate who is coming off a 20-target game (Keenan Allen). That said, Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a concussion in Week 3 and no player has played the game immediately following a concussion this season, which I am treating as more of a trend than noise (even with a small sample). The league quite simply could be taking a more cautious approach with head injuries after the fallout from Tua Tagovailoa’s incident last season. We likely won’t know the status of Garoppolo until the early games have already kicked off, introducing a level of uncertainty here not present in other spots on the slate. I was honestly shocked to see his ownership where it was, particularly considering his teammate, Jakobi Meyers, is priced $2,500 cheaper on DraftKings and has similar underlying metrics this season.

TONY POLLARD

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Tony Pollard handily leads the league in carries (62) and red zone opportunities (27) but has scored just two touchdowns through three weeks. The touchdowns are going to regress at some point. His matchup is non-prohibitive against a Patriots team considered a run-funnel behind heavy rates of man coverage and moderate blitz rates. The biggest knock to Pollard’s profile in this spot is his salary on a slate where pricing is much tighter than it has been to start the season. That is likely to make rosters with Pollard look very similar from the sense of salary allocation. In other words, rosters with Pollard will almost certainly also contain Joshua Palmer and/or a salary-saving option at tight end.

PAT FREIERMUTH

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Enter Tony Pollard pairing partner number one. Pat Freiermuth’s 70.2 percent route participation rate ranks 28^th amongst tight ends this season and his 12.3 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate ranks 38^th. I mean, I guess, he’s scored two touchdowns, right? I don’t understand the field’s infatuation with a tight end who has run the 23^rd most routes this season on an offense that has scored more than 28 points (four touchdowns) just twice during the last calendar year.

JOSH PALMER

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Enter Tony Pollard pairing partner number two. Josh Palmer’s 18.4 TPRR in the 2022 season, a season where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed a combined 11 games, was entirely underwhelming, as were his 8.5 aDOT and 1.32 yards per route run (YPRR). The price is right, but his path to a true GPP-worthy ceiling is rather slim.

PUKA NACUA

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Now we’re talking. Puka Nacua has seen a target on almost 40 percent of his routes against zone coverage this season, which is absurd. That’s important because the Colts have played zone coverages at the second highest rate in the league this season. I legitimately would not be shocked to see Puka end Week 4 with another 15-20 target game here, game environment permitting. Plus, he’s got great hair, so there’s that.

BROWNS D/ST

EXPANSIVE CHALK. I want to hate this play with every ounce of my being, it being a cheap chalk defense, and all. But I can’t, in good conscience, call the Browns a bad on-paper play this week. There will always be reasons to fade chalk defenses, but I will have the Browns D/ST in my player pool this week.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

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Sunday Morning “Update”

No major updates from me this morning, but I’ll go ahead and lay out a look at how my pool/approach shaped up ::

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K

Justin Fields
Elijah Mitchell
Kyren Williams
Josh Palmer
Rashid Shaheed
Ja’Marr Chase
Cole Kmet
Marvin Mims
Browns

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

150 Edge Points ($150 worth of FREE DFS Education courses!) + ‘Discord Blue’ color in Discord!

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

This isn’t unusual, but we’re in a week where I’m not seeing any games or players that fit the true definition of a Blue Chip for my Player Grid (low likelihood of price-considered failure AND a pretty solid shot at posting a ‘had to have it’ score). As explored in the Angles Pod this week (worth a listen, IMO), one of the unique components of this week is that the players with a low likelihood of price-considered failure generally have a lower-than-normal shot at ‘had to have it’ scores, while the players who have paths to ‘had to have it’ production come with uncomfortable floors.

“Light Blue” Chips

Josh Allen

The Bills have been praising Josh Allen for his willingness to take the underneath throws, and we know that Vic Fangio will try to set up his defense in such a way that Allen is encouraged to take the underneath throws. This will make it a bit tougher for Allen to have a true “had to have it” game — but Allen is highly unlikely to ‘hurt you’ this week, and he has clear paths to being one of the stronger plays on this slate.

I don’t expect to be playing Miami pass catchers away from Josh Allen rosters, but I’ll definitely be keeping them in the mix on Josh Allen builds.

Jalen Hurts

The matchup should not be an issue for Jalen Hurts in this spot, but the game environment could prevent him from piling up statistics deeper into this one. Similar to Allen, above (and as explored in-depth in the Angles Pod), this lowers the chances of Hurts having a true “had to have it” game — but he is highly unlikely to ‘hurt you’ this week, and he has clear paths to being one of the stronger plays on the slate.

These guys aren’t “in the Player Grid,” but I’m also keeping the Philly running backs (Swift AND Gainwell) in mind for my tighter builds this week.

Christian McCaffrey

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Concentration”

Davante + Jakobi + Josh Palmer

Story:

“Duh”

Why It Works:

I mean…it’s obvious. And all of these players will grab ownership. But this three-way pairing will be low-owned combinatorially. Obviously, Jimmy G could be added here, but the Raiders are so concentrated that you can make things even more unique by pairing this with a different QB/stack (filling out your TE position with this stack would be especially interesting :: something like Purdy/Kittle or Fields/Kmet, as this would leave you flexibility for one last wide receiver).

How It Works:

This setup isn’t so totally unique that it’s “all you need to do differently from the field,” but it does give you a unique enough starting point that you can play some popular plays elsewhere without worrying too much about it.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Overlooked? Really!?”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Play By My Rules(!) ::

In case you missed it…

We have now added the ability for me to publish my Player Groups to the Bink Machine!

I build out my pool/rules on Saturday night, into Sunday morning. I usually wrap this around 3 AM on the West Coast.

Around that time, you can find my Player Groups (rules), and can apply them to your own builds if you want.

“If Gabe”

If I’m playing Gabe Davis this week, I want to go all the way and bet that this means the Bills, as a whole, are having a big game through the air. This rule (Gabe Anchor || 3 min // 3 max with Allen // Diggs) tells the Bink Machine to play all three players in this pool on 100% of the rosters that include Gabe Davis.

“2 backs, 1 game”

It’s a bit early in this particular week (when I want to really “let the slate come to me” — as explored in the Angles Pod) to know exactly what percentage of my rosters I’ll want this rule on, but here’s a look at how I might balance my aim of getting Kyren Williams and Zack Moss onto some rosters together :: Kyren anchor // Moss included on at least 35% of builds.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Hurts || Richardson || Stafford || Fields || Russ || Purdy || Stroud

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!

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The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

Tony Pollard

If you eliminate the touchdowns from the scoring the last three weeks, Pollard’s point totals are 10.2, 19.9, and 18.1 while CMC’s are 22.9, 19.5, and 16.9. His opportunity counts are 17, 33, and 26 compared to CMC’s 27, 23, and 23. Said another way, Pollard is touching the ball as often as CMC and having similar fantasy scoring efficiency outside of touchdowns, which we know are extremely variant in fantasy. Pollard is playing as a home favorite, has yet to bust any big runs, and is $1,400 cheaper than CMC.

Josh Jacobs

Jacobs was one of the top backs in the league in 2022 and is in complete control of the Raiders backfield again this year. The results haven’t been there, but he’s had 22 opportunities in Weeks 1 and 3 while facing the Bills top-tier run defense in Week 2. The Chargers defense is struggling and got Alexander Mattison out of his slump last week, so it seems like if we are ever going to get a vintage Jacobs performance, it will happen this week.

Joshua Kelley

 Kelley flopped the last two weeks as the feature back in games where he was facing a top run defense (Tennessee) and where his team found itself in a shootout on the road against an explosive offense. This week he has the softest matchup he has had to date and his team is expected to play with a lead, while also being very likely to carry the lowest ownership he has had to date.

Raheem Mostert/De’Von Achane

The Bills defense has a great reputation as a high-end unit. They’ve been very good this year and held their opponents to point totals during the first four quarters of their games of 16, 10, and 3. That being said, the Bills rank 32nd in the league in yards per carry allowed. Breece Hall ran for 127 yards on 10 carries against the Bills and managed only 27 yards on 16 carries in his next 2 games. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson averaged 7.25 yards per carry in Week 3. This is a team that has been gashed on the ground in the past against far less dynamic offenses than what the Dolphins are bringing to town. Both of these backs scored 40+ points last week and this week they are both going to be sub-5% owned at middling salaries in the highest total game of the week. Maybe they fall flat on their faces here, but that last sentence alone is why I feel the need to be using these guys in GPPs this week.

Volume and Pray

There are a few RBs this week who are likely to see very good volume and are in good to great game environments and matchups at very manageable salaries. Those players are D’Andre Swift, Kyren Williams, Zach Moss, Alexander Mattison, Javonte Williams, James Cook, and Alvin Kamara. The players listed in the first few bullet points of this section are my preferred plays, but the overall dynamics of the slate must also be considered. While I love Pollard and Jacobs in a vacuum, the top of the wide receiver position is loaded on this slate and there are pay-up options at tight end I am very high on. Pollard and Jacobs (and CMC) are the best bets for very good games, but in tournaments, your best bet to climb the leaderboard is likely to end up being playing backs from the mid-range and paying up at wide receiver.

Tight End :: 

George Kittle

Close to a lock-button play this week. Deebo will be out or limited and the Cardinals defense is relatively conservative with the most room in the middle of the field. Kittle has a great connection with Brock Purdy and has yet to cross the goal line on 18 targets this season. I think a 5 // 70 // 1 game is very likely in this spot and Kittle has as high of a ceiling as any TE on the slate.

TJ Hockenson

If you’ve been reading my stuff this season and throughout the summer, you are familiar with my affinity for Hockenson. I thought I might move off of him this week since he is the highest-priced player at his position, but his extremely low expected ownership and ability to become a “had to have it” at the position certainly stands out to me. The Panthers defense might have to sell out to stop Justin Jefferson and they already struggle with running games, which could leave Hockenson in a position to go wild. I already said Kittle is close to a lock-button for me this week, so on the rosters where I don’t use him I will be looking to play another tight end who can separate.

Dallas Goedert

Goedert has not had a great start to the season in terms of box scores, but we knew coming in that his role in this offense may fluctuate throughout the year. Goedert is now priced below Taysom Hill and within a couple hundred dollars of Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee, and Cole Kmet – all of those guys were drafted several rounds after Goedert just a couple of weeks ago. Call this an “I know better” take if you want, but Goedert is still the third-best receiving option on an elite offense and he is too important to this team for them to not get him involved at some point soon.

Defense :: 

Browns

Elite defense facing an injury-riddled opponent.

Chargers

The Raiders have given up fantasy point totals of three, 11, and 10 to the opposing defense in their first three weeks with seven turnovers during that time frame. If the Chargers offense is scoring, they are forcing the Raiders to throw more and raising their opportunities for sacks and turnovers.

Patriots

The Cowboys are going to be without at least one starting offensive lineman and have two others battling injuries. New England blitzes at a top-5 rate in the league and leads the league in percentage of hurries. The Patriots have struggled to turn hurries and pressures into sacks so far, but a banged-up offensive line might help solve that issue.

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GPP Stack Of The Week

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

Welcome to DFS Week 4! This slate is defined by one high total (MIA/BUF 53.5), one moderately high total (LAC/LV 48.5), and a ton of totals between 43-46. MIA/BUF, while carrying big upside, has a lot of paths to disappointment. The Bills defense is good, the Dolphins are weaker against the run, and neither team has played fast this season. LAC/LV is an appealing spot, with nearly guaranteed high play volume. The Chargers look like “that team” this year who offers a fantasy friendly combination of fast play, strong offense, and bad defense. There is nothing wrong with targeting the Chargers, but is the LAC/LV game THAT much better than the other three games within a field goal of its total? There is a strong probability that the weekly chalk will form heavily around the top two games, when the reality is that there are several other games on this slate that are all capable of producing must-have scores. Throw in that this is the first week where value (at least on DK) is minimal, and it’s shaping up to be a good week to be creative with your builds. With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s pieces!

Pawn – WR D.J Chark ($4,000)

There are very few players priced below $5,000 on DK who are appealing. That means the few values available are all likely to carry high ownership. Guys like Tank Dell ($4,600), Adam Thielen ($4,500), Josh Palmer ($4,000), Quentin Johnson ($3,700) Josh Downs ($3,500), Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) and Calvin Austin ($3,300) are all predicted to carry double digit ownership. So, what about Chark? He just saw 11 targets (from Andy Dalton) and Bryce Young is going to need to throw against the high-flying Vikings. There is a good chance Chark sees double digit targets in a negative game script, against a Vikings defense that has looked truly bad. Chark has just as much if not more upside than the guys expected to be chalk, but Chark is currently projected to be 1-3% owned.

Knight – TE George Kittle ($5,100)

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Win the Tight End, Win the Week

It’s ugly out there, kids. Draftkings is gradually tightening their salaries and we’re left facing the conundrum of locating value without sacrificing a potential ceiling outcome. We often achieve this feat, at least partially, through the tight end position. This week may be challenging. Rostering a tight end this week feels like picking out a dog at the local pound. Mark Andrews is awesome but at his price, in this matchup, he feels more like that Cockapoo/Pit Bull mix with a limp and a lazy eye. We’ll click the button, but we won’t feel great about it. 

If you need further indication of the state of TE on this slate, look no further than the chalk. Pat Freiermuth is projected to be pushing 20% owned despite earning only nine targets…on the season. Woof! 

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Ja’Marr Chase/Chig Okonkwo

Chase’s matchup is pristine but concerns about the lack of firepower on the Titans side may sour many on this game environment. Offseason assumptions of Okonkwo being a Gronk-like seam-stretcher have yet to come to fruition. But between the ineffectiveness of Tennessee’s run game and Treylon Burks’ absence, this may be the week where Ryan Tannehill is forced to make Chig into a thing. At $3200 amongst the state of this slate, there are worse places to place your bets.    

Nico Collins/Chalk Steelers Guy

After two weeks of the NFL season, we were ready to anoint Nico Collins as the 3^rd year breakout wide receiver of this year. Now after a tough matchup against Jaguars Tyson Campbell, we’ve all turned our attention to Nico’s teammate, Tank Dell. Don’t get me wrong, Dell is clearly gifted, but that’s no reason for Collins to be 4% owned this week at a very manageable $5100. Using Collins to offset the ownership of Freiermuth (18.7%), Calvin Austin (10.4%), or George Pickens (13.8%), allows us to roster one of these values without feeling like a total chalk donkey. 

Jaylen Waddle/Bills Strategic Piece

What if I told you we could get pieces of the highest game total on the slate while solving the tight end position and lowering our cumulative ownership?

Waddle is currently projected as under 1% owned. Sure, he’s been injured and we haven’t seen it yet this year, but the dude went 7/226/1 in two regular season games vs. Buffalo last year. If he’s healthy and the Bills sell out to stop Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins running game, look out. 

Knox currently has a higher point projection than his rookie teammate at less ownership, although Kincaid feels fine, too…

…and if you wanna get really freaky, you can rage against conventional wisdom and roster the ultimate low-floor player, Gabe Davis. Miami’s defense is built to limit deep shots, so the chances are minimal that he puts up a tourney winning score. Less than 1% ownership though? Sorry, I’ll be the fish that takes a couple of stabs at this.

Rhamondre Stevenson/CeeDee Lamb (or Brandin Cooks) 

Not for the faint of heart, this one will require some cherry-picked statistics to help us sleep at night. The Dallas Cowboys defense is beyond scary in terms of rushing the passer but merely mortal at bottling up the run. Look for Belichick, O’Brien, and company to take the path of least resistance here. 

Rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez appears to be a steal at #17 of this year’s draft. What we don’t know for sure is who he’ll be covering. Cooks would be the default matchup, but I can assure you that Belichick has not forgotten the 2021 overtime loss to Dallas where Lamb torched the Pats for a 9/149/2 line. Throw in the fact that these teams both rank top-six in pace of play, and we could see enough touches for the focal points of these offenses to find some fantasy goodness. 

What makes this worth the risk in MME is the ownership. Stevenson, Lamb, and Cooks are projected at 5%, 5%, and 1% respectively.

Lower-Owned Treasures

Running Back

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

I’m writing this column a day earlier than typical this week. This is good because the words that follow should reflect no overthinking whatsoever. We often talk about how our early week instincts can be some of our best because they are clear, non-cloudy, unbiased opinions (typically) of a given slate, game, or specific players. Clear thinking leads to unique thinking. Our instincts are inherently us, whether we can control them or not, and if we can put them into context here, these initial thoughts and reactions can be some of our best.

The DFS industry has ballooned in the last five to seven years. The edges available in the early days (call it pre-2016) have evolved. The edges we all strive to achieve now are micro in nature, and yet it’s those micro edges we constantly strive to stack on top of each other and be infused with a little bit of luck to have ourselves a day on any given slate. And with this explosion of interest has come an explosion of content, data, and opinions. You have to have some real perseverance to spend the time and sift through the relevant and irrelevant information thrown your way. It’s important to recognize most of this as noise, not signal. But when you start to see data from what feels like all the angles, the best thing to do is to come back to your center. Your early week thoughts.

Instincts can guide us this week. Remember, your first thoughts are likely similar to others, so react as you may but assess how valid or likely those outcomes are, then also remember the name of the game in DFS is to build lineups to score more points than our competitors. Step out of your zone, be your own builder this week, and be willing to lose (as always!) . . . 

Justin Fields and Russell Wilson

Two of the lowest approval rating starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now (outside of Zach Wilson) get a matchup with one another to see who can spend the next six days without criticism. This game draws me in more than I thought it would, when like many others, I laughed at the fact that the Broncos just lost by 50 points on Sunday and are now favored by Vegas to win their next game. While neither Fields nor Wilson has given us much to indicate they will still have their starting jobs two weeks from now, they both possess single game upside worth considering in large field play in the right matchup.

Is defense going to be optional in this game? The Broncos rank dead last in the NFL in pressure rate at just 10.8%, while the Bears rank third-worst at 16.7%. Safe to say we should have two mostly clean pockets for both quarterbacks in this game. On the Bears side, they have a league low blitz rate meaning they will keep the defenders back and force Wilson to throw it to beat them. On the Broncos side, the defense is giving up an average of 7.2 yards per play, the worst in the league. And after what the Dolphins did to them last week, is there any coming back from that?

With Wilson, a simple stack with Jeudy and Sutton seems like the obvious route to go, with a lean toward Sutton as he has a slightly better matchup against a zone-heavy defense. Marvin Mims, of course, could be added as well. With Fields, we can lean on him by himself, or with a running back and DJ Moore. I’ll likely go with Khalil Herbert, Moore, and Fields.

Joe Burrow and Friends (+ DeAndre Hopkins)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 4 Topics

1. Unique Slate

2. Battles of the Extremes

3. Hidden Gem

4. Floating Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Firstly, this is a weird week in that I don’t even know what the game totals look like. That simply hasn’t been a part of my process this week, given what is truly standing out to me this week.

Secondly (attached to that first item), there are spots where the chances of a team or player “disappointing at their salary” are relatively low, but where their chances of going well above that solid production (reaching “had to have it” range) are also relatively low. (I.e., “high floor // narrow range of outcomes”)

And thirdly, there are spots where the chances of a team or player “disappointing at their salary” are somewhat evident…but where their chances of going well above that solid production (reaching “had to have it” range) are also somewhat evident. (“I.e., “low floor // wide range of outcomes”)

Most DFS players tend to swing all the way in one direction or all the way in the other in setups like this :: either taking on way too many players who don’t have a high chance of producing at a had-to-have-it level, or taking on way too little floor for everything to truly come together on a roster (i.e., they get a couple of these high-volatility spots right, but because they are chasing so many high-volatility spots on one roster, it never fully comes together).

This week, I’ll be looking to find the balance between those two sides :: building in confident floor, then mixing in pieces with a greater chance of failing, but a higher chance of turning into “the pieces you had to have.”

Xandamere >>

This week actually feels quite similar to last week to me in a couple of ways in that we have:

1. One game with a total that is meaningfully above every other game
2. A healthy array of games in the 45+ range to choose from to either supplement or pivot away from the “big” game

But there are also some key differences…

1. We don’t have the bounty of RB value that we had last week. Last week we had a nice selection of sub-$6k running backs who were very clearly in play. This week we have….Javonte Williams (though we may get more – Miles Sanders missed practice today, Friday, which would put Chuba Hubbard in play).
2. After being VERY lazy about pricing up early-season successes, Draftkings has made significant adjustments in some areas this week. Tank Dell, for example, had a $1k salary jump after just a $400 jump last week (you could still argue he’s underpriced, but not by nearly as much). There are still values out there, but not massive amount of it we had last week.

So we have a week with a fair number of high total games, one “big” game, and a lot of expensive players in good spots…but we don’t have the same degree of value that we’ve enjoyed in the first three weeks. I expect we’re going to see people trying to jam in stars and scrubs builds – and they certainly are viable this week – but they aren’t as obviously strong as we’ve seen so far this year. That creates some interesting dynamics in which people might play thinner value options to try and make the stars/scrubs construction work, which creates an opportunity to approach the slate from a more balanced build perspective.

Hilow >>

Look guys and gals, scoring is down across the league – so we’re going to continue seeing these slates with not many game environments carrying massive game totals as compared to just a few short years ago. As we’ve touched on in the past this year, this makes finding those game environments that can pop of utmost importance until further notice. For those keeping track at home, we’ve had two weeks to start this season where a 230-point roster was shipping major GPPs and just one with winning scores in the 290 range. Two years ago, it was an outlier to see 230-point rosters shipping anything. Seven years ago, you were shipping tournaments with a 200-point score. The NFL is a cyclical, copycat league. Teams figure out something that works on offense and it takes three to five years for the defenses to figure out something to counteract those tendencies. We’re smack dab in the middle of the defensive side of that cycle, with Mike McDaniel leading the way in the surge forward for offenses. All of that to say – these slates are going to start to become more of the norm instead of us up here saying “man, another slate with one elite game environment and then everything else.”

As for this particular slate, there are numerous game environments with wide ranges of outcomes and low expected ownership, which is the theoretical promised land for constructing GPP rosters. Relentlessly finding, and then attacking, those spots is going to lead to profit over time. More on this thought process in the End Around and on The Slate podcast!

Mike >>

There are two things that stand out to me about this slate from a DFS perspective::

1. The game with the highest projected total is also projecting for modest ownership, which is a rarity. It makes sense due to the price tags of the players involved and the uncertainty around usage within the offenses, but it stands out nonetheless. 
2. There are a large number of premium wide receivers on the slate and all of them have enormous ceilings. This makes roster construction critical and something we need to have in mind as we build rosters. Check out my Player Grid for deeper thoughts on this issue!

---

2. Battles of the Extremes

The Question ::

Sometimes when evaluating matchups and game environments it is relatively easy to see how things are going to play out. For example, last week we had a few great offenses facing defenses that are struggling. The decision points around those situations are more about *how* you want to bet on those teams scoring their points than *if* those teams will have success. This week, we have some “battles of the extremes” and it comes on both ends of the spectrum::

• We have the Dolphins offense coming off a game in which they scored 70 points facing a Bills defense that has looked dominant this year and ranks 2nd in the league in yards per game allowed and points per game allowed:
• We also have the Bears offense that looks similar to a mediocre middle school offense facing a Broncos defense that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins last week and 35 points to a Commanders team that looked really bad in their two games where they weren’t playing the Broncos.
• Within that same game, we have a Broncos offense that has looked “better than 2022”, but still not great, facing a Bears defense that has given up 25+ points in 13 straight games dating back to last season and is giving up over 35 points per game in 2023.

What are your thoughts on those specific games? Also, do you have any general thoughts on how you like to approach and handle these “extreme” matchup situations?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

This Week’s Slate

• The NFL once again gifted us with a small, three-game slate but at least there are a lot of fun dynamics and angles to consider as well as some late news we are waiting on that will have a big impact on everything.
• The “expected” outcomes are the 49ers winning in a blowout, the Cowboys winning a low-scoring grinder over the Patriots, and the Chargers offense continuing to shred teams against a struggling Raiders defense. 
• Understanding the above dynamics and what they mean for player usage and game flow is critical. It is also critical to remember that most of our competition will be viewing things through these lenses as well, so we need to either find creative ways to tell the same stories through our rosters or find some less likely outcomes that are more likely than how the field will treat them and build around those.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Outlook – Late Games:

Week four marks the second week in a row with only three games (out of twelve) falling in the late window. However, two of the late games have a lot of potential fantasy goodness, with both *potentially* having late-breaking news. The two late games I’m referencing are the Chargers vs. Raiders and the 49ers vs. the Cardinals. The final game of the afternoon also features the Dallas Cowboys, who carry a 25-point team total, and a reasonably concentrated offense as 6-point home favorites.

As it stands Saturday afternoon, three of the four highest projected owned players will be featured on the late slate, with the two highest owned, Keenan Allen and Davante Adams, playing against each other (Tony Pollard is the third referenced above). In this same game, Austin Ekeler is listed as doubtful. While he is unlikely to suit up, Ekeler’s status really affects so much. If active, the most popular value play in Joshua Palmer disappears, and Keenan Allen’s massive projected targets will need to be adjusted. Again, it is unlikely, but if active, Ekeler will offer some of the best leverage on the slate in a great matchup.The second piece of potential late-breaking news is around the 49ers. Juwan Jennings is listed as doubtful and both Elijah Mitchell, and more importantly Deebo Samuel, are listed as questionable. Deebo is considered a true game-time decision, and if he’s inactive, the offense really consolidates around Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. If Jennings and Samuel both miss, it also brings 7^th round rookie Ronnie Bell into consideration at $3,400.  

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• The Rams feature a highly concentrated offense, and two of the five highest projected owned (Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua) are featured in the game against the Colts. They are both mid-priced, so a 25+ point score from either will need to be accounted for.
• Dolphins vs. Bills – Featuring several highly owned pieces (Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Tyreek Hill, and Raheem Mostert) in the best-on-paper game environment of the early slate.
• Slate Breakers such as Tyreek Hill’s 47.5 DK point performance in Week 1 or Raheem Mostert’s 45.2 outburst last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,100 and up:

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 4!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is how to access my article reviewing 2021 and 2022 top rosters:

OWS → Archives → The Scroll Archives → Week 1, 2023 → Battle Royale (at bottom) (or click the link)

This was an atypical weekly preview as it was more of a primer for the contest than about anything Week 1 specific; so if you’d like to access it, then that is the easiest way to do it.

For this week, I’ll be showing the top rosters of Week 3, updating some trending stats, and hitting on some of my thoughts on each position. Let’s get started!

Reviewing Week 3

Score	QB	RB	FLEX	WR	WR	TE
174.56	Herbert	Mostert	Walker	Keenan	Williams	Kelce
174.06	Herbert	Mostert	Walker	Keenan	Cooper	Kelce
173.66	Herbert	Mostert	Hill	Keenan	Williams	LaPorta
173.66	Herbert	Mostert	Hill	Keenan	Williams	LaPorta
173.62	Tua	Mostert	Walker	Keenan	Williams	Kelce

Notes:

• Second QB-WR-WR double stack to ever win in 39 contests
• QB stacking (27 of 39 winners) has not required runbacks (4 of the 27 stacks included an opposing player) to be successful to this point
• The bigger this contest keeps becoming (nearly 70K in size now), the more necessary it becomes to have at least the two highest scoring players on the slate. With the condensed rosters and no salary cap, there are “fewer paths to victory” each week, making it even more valuable to take significant stands on players/situations.

Looking at Week 4

QB:

Notable QBs missing from slate: Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff

Top 6 by ADP: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson

Notes on some “Scroll-down QBs”:

• Joe Burrow at TEN: Clearly not healthy, but may not need to be fully mobile to launch bombs all over this pass funnel defense. Two elite stacking partners.
• Brock Purdy vs ARI: Not the highest ceiling QB, but highest team total of the slate, playing a team that has been surprisingly competitive, and has multiple elite stacking partners.
• Anthony Richardson vs LAR: Demonstrated elite fantasy skills in his 5 quarters of play to start his career, playing a defense that has been better schemes than it has talent.
• Justin Fields vs DEN: Still a much better fantasy player than real-life QB at this point, and now catches a defense that has been reeling for 6 quarters.
• Russell Wilson vs CHI: DEN is actually favored here with a 24.5 team total and needs to play well after a historically poor showing. Wilson has 300 yards in two straight, scored 27 fantasy points in Week 2 (demonstrating some ceiling), and has two stacking partners at WR.
• Jameis Winston vs TB: While I expect NO to try and continue to slow games down and not throw it all over the yard, TB defense under Bowles is still more of a pass funnel than a team to effectively run on. Kamara should give a boost to the short area passing game efficiency, and Olave and Shaheed can really stretch this defense on the backend.

RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Isaiah Pacheco

Notes:

• CMC vs ARI: McCaffrey is the 1.01 this week in nearly every draft. Weak RB depth, loaded WR depth, no Kelce on slate, easy 1.01.
• Josh Jacobs at LAC: Offense would be better if Jimmy G plays, but a good matchup and game environment in a super condensed offense (basically just 3 guys touching the ball).
• Zack Moss vs LAR: Moss’s rush attempts in his last 6 games as a Colt: 24, 12, 15, 18, 18, 30. Moss’s 8 RZ touches lead the next closest teammate by 4 despite missing Week 1.
• Javonte Williams vs CHI: DEN is a home favorite playing against a porous defense. Williams has yet to reach the usage we prefer to have, but this game sets up for him to get extra rush attempts.
• Alexander Mattison at CAR: Easier to attack CAR on the ground, and he’s coming off a game of 20 rush attempts and 5 receptions vs LAC after two tough RB defenses prior. Akers has only been with the team for a week, so I’m willing to take the risk Mattison maintains full control for at least another week, given that both his teammates are drafted in the top 2 rounds and he’s not typically selected.
• Najee Harris at HOU: While the HOU defense has improved, it’s still most attackable on the ground, already yielding 5 TDs to RBs through 3 games. Harris is losing some work to Warren, but he received 19 rush attempts last week and is still expected to be the leader for GL work. He’ll probably need to score 2 TDs to be valuable though.

WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Garrett Wilson

Whereas last week was missing an enormous chunk of the 1st-6th round WRs, this week has nearly every highly drafted fantasy WR on the slate. It’s already apparent with ADP, where 6 of the first 7 drafted players are WRs (10 of the first 15). My initial thoughts are that this week is going to require a bigger than average score to win with so many elite WRs here and set up in strong spots. I will likely be drafting a WR at FLEX a majority of the time given the state of each position this week. I’ll also be avoiding overstacking given the chances of a significant number of elite scores this week.

Just look at how many pairs in which at least one is likely to have a big day:

• With how beat up the CAR secondary is, and how much more effective MIN has been passing, one of Jefferson, Jordan Addison, or TJ Hockenson is likely to score very well here.
• One of Davante Adams, Jacobs, or Jakobi Meyers is likely to have a big game against a bad Chargers defense, but having Jimmy G play would be best for all.
• Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs the TEN secondary should be set up for plenty of big opportunities.
• AJ Brown and Devonta Smith face a WAS secondary prone to deep ball success, something Brown and Smith will both get chances to exploit.
• If Ekeler continues to miss, one of Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, or Gerald Everett should put up a valuable score against an exploitable Raiders secondary.
• Concerns remain on the LAR offensive line, but Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have been soaking up all the Rams pass-game usage, and now face a defense consistently being attacked in the secondary.
• The 49ers trio of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all benefit from extra looks when one of the three is missing, and Deebo has yet to practice this week. SF has the highest total on the slate.

• Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton face a bad CHI defense on a team implied for 24.5 points and needing a bounceback after a historic loss.
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell face a tough PIT defense, but that is exploitable through the secondary. There are some legitimate concerns about Stroud and the HOU offensive line against this fierce PIT pass rush, but there is definite upside here for these guys going undrafted.

So what to do with all those WR options this week? I want to try and mix and match them as much as possible, finding ways to leverage the ones I don’t have. So for guys getting drafted near each other and almost never paired, grabbing the other’s teammate to further bet on your selected guy outperforming the other (i.e. Jefferson and Tyreek and Chase are rarely able to be taken together, so looking at adding Higgins and/or Hockenson on Tyreek rosters).

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts

Notes:

• George Kittle and TJ Hockenson are the clear top options here, especially with 49ers WRs dealing with injuries and a matchup with ARI on tap for Kittle.
• Gerald Everett has a chance to see an uptick in usage with Mike Williams going down and Ekeler still missing.
• Cole Kmet is the only one I’d want to stack with Fields; DEN defense has been very weak.
• Juwan Johnson plays all game and always comes with multi-TD upside

Underowned Combos:

• Justin Herbert + Josh Palmer/Gerald Everett + Jakobi Meyers
• Kirk Cousins + Jordan Addison + TJ Hockenson + (Adam Thielen)
• Anthony Richardson + Zack Moss + Puke Nacua
• Justin Fields + Cole Kmet + Jerry Jeudy/Javonte Williams
• Jameis Winston + Chris Olave/Juwan Johnson

Notable Stats

1st place performance:

• 26 of the 39 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 17 of the 39 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 35 of the 39 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

FLEX usage:

• 132 of 195 top-5 rosters have had two RBs (67.7%), meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• The other 63 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

Stacking and Correlation:

• 22 of 39 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (17), TE (3), RB (2)
• 5 of 39 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (3), WR-WR (2)
• 4 of those 27 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 38 of 39 had at least one game correlation
• 13 of 39 had two different game correlations

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!