The Saturday Deuce 20.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Saturday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview ::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bills – Buffalo enters as road favorites in a tough matchup with a very good defense. The Bills are missing several pass catchers, which actually should make figuring out their receiving corps slightly less complicated. As usual, everything the Bills offense accomplishes will likely have to come through Josh Allen and James Cook.
• Broncos – Denver has won a lot of games this season, but most of them were very close. This week facing Josh Allen and the Bills it seems likely that if Denver wins it will once again be a contest that ends within a score. The weakness of Buffalo’s defense is on the ground, but RJ Harvey has been very inefficient as a lead back. Harvey’s ability to produce consistently will be key to the success of Denver’s offense.
• 49ers – The loss of George Kittle is another roadblock for San Francisco in what has been a very difficult and frustrating season. They expect to get speedy WR Ricky Pearsall back, but what kind of role he can play is still in question. Expect the 49ers to struggle running the ball consistently, leading to a high volume passing game for Brock Purdy. 
• Seahawks – Everything Seattle does revolves primarily around their backfield and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The 49ers defense is relatively beatable and probably the weakest defense on the Saturday slate. Seattle scored only 13 points against San Francisco two weeks ago, but they averaged a robust 5.4 yards per play and moved the ball pretty well. The Seahawks have a massive rest advantage in this one as they haven’t played in two weeks, while the 49ers are playing on less than a full week’s rest.

QB Thoughts ::

• Obviously everything at the QB position starts with Josh Allen, who we know can put up 25+ points even in low scoring game environments. He is an interesting option on a small slate like this because it seems viable to play him with anywhere from one to three Bills. Playing him with two or three WR/TE options so you can fit in both CMC and JSN with him is an interesting build.
• I expect QB ownership to be relatively flat, with Allen the most popular by a bit and then the other three QBs relatively tight. 
• Darnold with both Seahawks running backs is an interesting build. If the Seahawks have similar, or even more, offensive success than they did the last time these teams played but manage to convert in high leverage situations they could easily score three or four touchdowns. If that happens and the other game is lower scoring, it is totally feasible that both Seattle RBs post very good games and Darnold is the optimal QB.
• Brock Purdy could post a nice game with a high volume of pass attempts, similar to what we saw from Mac Jones for several weeks earlier this season. If playing Purdy, it would be really hard to not include CMC on a two game slate.
• Bo Nix is my least favorite QB on the slate. I respect the Bills pass defense and Nix hasn’t been impressive in tough spots. That being said, I will have a few rosters that have him stacked with a receiver or two and James Cook plus a BUF WR or TE. When the Broncos have fallen behind they’ve really cut Nix loose on downfield passing and he is also a capable runner. Basically the only way I can envision playing Nix is telling a story that they have a terrible start and fall way behind.

RB Thoughts ::

• I probably won’t make a roster without at least one Seattle running back on it, and will have several with both. The duo has 36, 36, and 45 combined points in their last three games and the best matchup on the slate.
• CMC might see 30+ touches in this matchup, so despite the fact he is facing the Seahawks defense he is tough to ignore.
• RJ Harvey is a matter of what trend breaks, his inefficiency as a runner or the Bills run defense weaknesses. Harvey has scored touchdowns at a high rate as well, however, so he has multiple paths to paying off even if the matchup doesn’t spike his efficiency.
• James Cook is an interesting case study on this slate. Tough matchup plus Ty Johnson likely back on the field, while the Denver matchup is very difficult. We’ve seen him struggle in spots like this, so really it is a matter of game script and if Buffalo can play from ahead. He’s my least favorite RB option among the primary guys on the slate, but it admittedly feels wildly uncomfortable.

WR Thoughts ::

• This is perhaps the most interesting wide receiver position I can remember this season on a two game slate. JSN stands out so far from everyone else in terms of projection, volume, ceiling, salary, and ownership. Playing him makes a ton of sense for so many reasons, but if somehow he “fails” the leverage would be massive. 
• Buffalo’s receivers are fun to toy with and the reality is that Patrick Surtain II probably won’t bother shadowing anyone, which means any of them could have a big game. I think I prefer Keon Coleman’s talent profile in a one game setting over the veteran Brandin Cooks.
• The 49ers receivers are in a similar spot to the Bills. Very tough on-paper matchup and a bunch of cheap options. Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but the return of Ricky Pearsall seems to complicate things. I would expect Robinson and Jauan Jennings to be on the field almost every down, with Pearsall and Kendrick Bourne rotating a bit based on situations and formations.
• Similar to my evaluation on Nix, my preferred way to use any Broncos WR would be within a story of Buffalo coming out hot.

TE Thoughts ::

• Relatively weak tight end group once again. Dalton Kincaid and Jake Tonges stand out by a wide margin as likely primary options for their teams, but tough matchups. 
• AJ Barner is someone to consider as a leverage point off JSN or as a part of Darnold stacks with JSN. Barner almost certainly needs touchdowns to get there, so that means either he is stealing them from JSN in a lower scoring game or a big game from Barner is part of a Seahawks offensive explosion.
• Dawson Knox is going to be on the field with Josh Allen a ton, is cheap, and probably won’t carry much ownership. 

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB ::

1. Kenneth Walker III
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Zach Charbonnet
4. RJ Harvey
5. James Cook

WR ::

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2. Demarcus Robinson
3. Courtland Sutton
4. Jauan Jennings
5. Khalil Shakir
6. Pat Bryant
7. Keon Coleman
8. Troy Franklin
9. Brandin Cooks
10. Rashid Shaheed
11. Ricky Pearsall

TE ::

1. Dalton Kincaid
2. Jake Tonges
3. AJ Barner
4. Dawson Knox
5. Evan Engram

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Marvin Mims Jr.
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Curtis Samuel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 4:30 pm ET Saturday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)