The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?”
Ohhhhhh, man. I mean, I’m certainly one who preaches that “every slate is unique,” and I have a blast each week sorting through and highlighting what makes a particular slate unique. But this one is especially unique, and I’m not sure if I can remember a recent slate quite like it.
There is plenty that we could pick out here, but to me, we have to start with the fact that there is one key decision point at quarterback, and that decision point could break pretty clearly all the way to the upside or all the way to the downside. Justin Fields has 28+ DK points in two of his three starts this year, and he’s playing what has been an all-time bad pass defense to start the year. On top of that, Fields only has one real weapon to throw to, so if he hits, you’re almost certainly getting two spots right. But unlike the Bears years (when Chicago was trying to see if Fields could develop into a well-rounded “QB of the future,” and was therefore willing to call a traditional game), the Jets are essentially doing everything they can to hide Fields. They aren’t calling on him to throw until they absolutely have to…and while Dallas has been great on offense this year, they are not aggressive themselves, which opens a clear pathway to the Cowboys staying conservative with a lead, the Jets staying conservative while trailing, and Fields never getting an opportunity to produce. I don’t have concerns about Fields failing in the matchup, but does the game environment give him an opportunity to produce at all? He could quite literally post a score you had to have or a score that wrecks the huge chunk of the field likely to play him this week.
Okay, so what do we do next in a situation like this? Quite naturally, we like to ask, “IF Fields fails, which QB/stack has the best shot at posting a score that separates from the rest of the field?” And this week, the answer seems to be, “None.” That’s not to say that no QB will post an elite score, but there is no QB we can confidently predict will post such a score.
This also trickles down to pass-catcher positions, where things look really thin this week.
And on top of all of this, we have lots of running backs who look solid this week, including a plethora of running back injuries opening up value…but with no place where we can feel all that excited about spending that salary we’re saving.
Talk about unique!
I have a feeling I’ll be thinking through angles on this slate right up until kickoff.
Well, first off, we only have 10 games, which is odd this early in the season, but with extra international games the last couple of seasons, that’s been cutting down the size of the main slate.
Beyond that, holy running backs Batman. We have several high-end backs in great spots. We have multiple starting backs out (Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, Chuba Hubbard), all of whom have backups priced at extremely cheap levels. And, at least for me, there isn’t a ton to really love at wide receiver, which really pushes us towards 3 RB builds. Which is probably fine, though personally I wouldn’t force it (just keep in mind that people building via projections are going to land VERY heavily on 3 RB builds due to the combination of value and high-end raw projection at the position).
This is an interesting slate in that we really have no glaring spots to go with game environment bets, value is opening up at the running back position, and we don’t have a ton of options to pay up for at quarterback (Josh Allen is off the slate while playing on SNF, the Chiefs play Monday, Lamar Jackson is hurt, the Philadelphia offense is broken and they play the suffocating Broncos this week, Jayden Daniels is returning from a two-game absence without his top pass-catcher, and Baker Mayfield is without two offensive linemen and Mike Evans). Not that we can’t consider some of those guys, but the field is unlikely to get up there at a normal rate as far as salary allocation is concerned. That leaves the grouping of Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray as the players that stick out in the middle-to-upper tier of pricing at the position, and none of those options feel particularly great this week. All of that to say, this week has the feel of a wide-open slate, making me most interested in targeted concentration on unique rosters. The thought process there is to load up on more variant spots with an aim at capturing bulk upside.
If everyone is cheap, then no one is cheap. This is the reality of a slate like this where “value” is all over the place due to injuries and other circumstances. The reality is we still need fantasy points and it will be very easy to fall into the trap of chasing too many of these incredibly “value” spots on the same roster. All these values also opened up in a week where there are only ten games, which condenses our player pool, and with only a couple of games that project for very high totals. The true “cost” of a player this week is not just their salary, but the opportunity cost of placing them on a roster and taking up a spot for a player who may have a much higher ceiling outcome. I think people will like playing the “super values” this week and use that excess salary to get the high-end studs on their rosters, which will leave the underpriced mid-tier players who are waiting for breakouts in a great spot to be slate changers.
There are five teams on this week’s main slate who are playing without massive pieces of their offense – the Bengals (Burrow), Giants (Nabers), Dolphins (Tyreek), Ravens (Lamar), and Bucs (Bucky Irving). The Bengals have been playing (kind of) without Burrow for 2+ weeks already, while the Bucs might be able to piece together their backfield without Irving. However, the Giants, Dolphins, and Ravens are likely to be scrambling with different offensive dynamics on short notice.
Are there any of these teams you have interest in this week? If so, what is your approach to those situations?
