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The Oracle 21.24

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Championship Round Topics

1. Eastbound and Down

2. AFC Showdown

3. Hidden Gem

4. Championship Predictions


1. Eastbound and Down

The Question ::

In the NFC we have a third matchup between the Eagles and Commanders as the East is the last division standing. Weather appears to be clear for Sunday in Philly (no precipitation and calm winds) which reduces question marks around some things. The first matchup was played on a Thursday and the Eagles dominated the short week as Washington’s offense struggled mightily. The second matchup saw Jalen Hurts leave with a concussion and the Commanders make a thrilling comeback primarily because the Eagles offense was unable to sustain drives. This week both teams will be fully prepared and both units are at or near full-strength. 

With all of that in mind, give us a brief summary of how you see this game playing out? (Said another way, if you had just one lineup to play – what is the “story” you would tell from this game?)

The Answers ::
Xandamere >>

The most likely outcome is the Eagles will be able to take care of business as they did in their first matchup. Ownership also tells us that’s how the field is likely to see it, too, so we have to consider if we’re comfortable playing this one straight-up and trying to win elsewhere or if we want to play this one differently. For me, Washington’s offense has been consistently underrated throughout the end of the season and the playoffs, so I’m going to try to invest here and hope that Jayden Daniels is able to string together some drives. I think the Eagles likely win, but I want to bet on this game just overall being more exciting for DFS purposes than it looks at first glance. 

Hilow >>

The Eagles should have every opportunity to manhandle the Washington defensive line, springing Saquon Barkley for his classic long gains and potential touchdowns. That should give Philadelphia the edge in “managing the game as they would prefer,” in turn making it more likely the Commanders are forced to stray from their “keep away” offensive mentality. The big question will then become, “how do the Commanders react if forced away from their ‘march the field’ identity if the Eagles are controlling the game environment?”

Neither of these teams are overly aggressive through the air, with the Eagles content to ride Barkley to the Super Bowl and the Commanders focused on short area work as they string together drives, making it less likely we see this game environment truly erupt. But if it does, we know A.J. Brown is amongst the league leaders in first-read target rate, target market share, and targets per route run, but he’s been victimized by low pass volume throughout the course of the season.

With just one roster in play, I would be riding Barkley and potentially Brown while picking one Washington pass-catcher to bring it back with, instead focusing on the game from the AFC for the bulk of my roster.

Mike >>

I expect Philadelphia to win this game and return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. While Washington has been outstanding this postseason (and really all season), the Eagles defense is simply on a completely different level than the Bucs and Lions teams that Washington faced in their first two playoff games. Tampa Bay has struggled in pass defense and had fits getting off the field against the Commanders due to the dual-threat rushing attack of Daniels and the Washington RBs. Meanwhile, the Lions defense was basically a JV unit with all the injuries they sustained since the start of the season. Washington has punted only once and has not fumbled or thrown an interception through two games this postseason, while the Eagles have the league’s top-ranked defense. I don’t expect Washington to be able to control the ball and sustain drives at the same level this week that they have the last two, which will likely change the game flow. The one area for concern for the Eagles I have is the fact that Jalen Hurts clearly injured his knee in last week’s win over the Rams, which may limit his mobility significantly and take away a significant part of what makes the Eagles offense difficult to stop – especially since Hurts has not been great throwing the ball most of this season (and hasn’t really had to be). Washington is the only team to beat the Eagles since their Week 5 bye, but in that game Hurts played only a few minutes before suffering a concussion. In that game, the biggest factor was the Eagles being unable to sustain drives which led to their defense eventually wearing down. While there are several paths for this game to take, I expect the Eagles to grind one out and ride Barkley to victory.


2. AFC Showdown

The Question ::

Allen vs. Mahomes

The battles have been epic, but in the playoffs they have been one-sided. What is crazy is how these teams have evolved over the years. The Bills beat the Ravens last week with Josh Allen throwing for only 127 yards. The Chiefs haven’t scored 30 points in a game ALL SEASON. Remember a couple of years ago in the Divisional round when these teams met and the Chiefs won that thriller in overtime with SO MUCH offense from these high-flying offenses? I believe both QBs are still capable of those types of performances, but their teams don’t try to win that way anymore (unfortunately for us). The Chiefs control the ball and let their opponents beat themselves. The Bills are more reliant on the running game and Josh Allen is protecting the football extremely well. Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, these are both championship teams.

With all of that in mind, give us a brief summary of how you see this game playing out? (Said another way, if you had just one lineup to play – what is the “story” you would tell from this game?)

The Answers ::

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!