Thanksgiving Strategy 13.25

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Overview

Every year the Thanksgiving slate provides us with a unique opportunity to leverage our understanding of both game theory and roster construction with the objective of reaching the summit of a GPP leaderboard. Luckily, for the OWS community, the same strategy and theory we utilize week in and week out is even easier to execute on a short slate. With that in mind, let’s highlight a few key concepts and misnomers:

• On a small slate like this, one of the biggest mistakes our competition will make in terms of roster construction will be thinking about certainty or safety (what’s likeliest to happen) and building around that. It’s essential to realize that if you construct your entire roster with what is most likely to happen in all three games, you will be highly duped and won’t win much even if your lineup finishes first.

• It’s also critical to remember that we are not building to maximize points, but instead are constructing each roster with how to maximize our chance to get first place. Wait, what? Are you saying I don’t want to try to score the most points??? While that seems counterintuitive, what I mean is we should approach each roster with a certain game script in mind, taking a similar approach to how we think and build for Showdown contests.  

• Additionally, we need to evaluate what each lineup is betting on. For example, let’s look at the Chiefs vs Cowboys game since Vegas (and a majority of the field) thinks THE MOST LIKELY outcome is a high-scoring affair as it carries an over/under of 52.5, the highest of the three Thanksgiving Day games. If Dallas/KC plays out as a 35-31 game, where eight or nine offensive TDs are scored, a Prescott or Mahomes stack will likely be optimal due to the soft pricing. So, if you are making lineups without these two at QB, be mindful of what this game playing out differently would mean as you construct the rest of your roster. 

• Finally, keep in mind that you don’t have to be different everywhere – some highly owned players will end up in the optimal.

Strategy

What I like best about this year’s slate is that all three games have a wide range of outcomes. What I mean by that is that each game could play out to be the highest or lowest scoring game on the slate and no one would be surprised. Players who are willing to embrace some uncertainty and leverage late swap will likely be at a competitive advantage.

Lets dive in