Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Thursday, July 31st in the $3 Drafters MINI II Best Ball Championship, with $125,000 prize pool, $25,000 to first place, and 46,140 total entries::
Picking from 7th slot
Picks 1.07 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAX — For me, there is a clear top six in drafts this year (three running backs and three wide receivers), and after that, there is a group of about five wide receivers who all have similar outlooks and I believe a case can be made for as the best option. I’ll “reach” a bit on Thomas here, but let’s be clear that his upside is as high as any player in the league after he was the WR2 in points per game from Weeks 12 through 18 in 2024.
Pick 2.06 & 3.07 – A.J. Brown, WR, PHI and Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI – Brown and Harrison are both structural picks for me here. Both are the clear top WR on their offenses and both of those offenses were very run heavy in 2024. If their respective teams see an uptick in pass rate and Harrison develops after a relatively disappointing rookie season, I have the core for a dominant wide receiver room on this roster.
Picks 4.06 and 5.07 – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, CAR and Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA –
