Published – 7/20/2024
Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available, and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right”. While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations.
Below is a summary of a slow draft that started around July 1st and concluded on July 14th in the Underdog “Marathon” $15 contest with a $2 million prize pool. This contest is the same cumulative scoring format we see on Drafters but has only 18 rounds and uses ½ point PPR scoring::
Pick 1.01 – CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL – This is my first swing at this contest and I have a bit of a working theory on how I want to attack it, but I have to see how the actual draft plays out. At the top of the draft, I am much more tempted to take CMC than I am on Drafters. Despite that temptation, I decided to take Lamb and lock in an elite WR that had a monster season in 2023 but honestly has some upside for improvement in the TD department.
Picks 2.12 and 3.01 – Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR and DJ Moore, WR, CHI – I decided to go with two more WRs here and wait a bit longer on running backs. I do believe RBs are much more valuable in this contest than on Drafters, but WRs who could score a lot of TDs are also extra valuable. As such, I landed on Kupp and Moore as two talented wide receivers who play on what I expect to be good offenses. Good offenses score a lot of touchdowns, so having players on good offenses is a bigger priority for me in ½ point PPR where players can’t get there just from heavy volume.
Picks 4.12 and 5.01 – Travis Etienne, RB, JAX and Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC – Honestly I am pretty shocked to see these two available at this point in the draft. I don’t draft on Underdog as much, but the intense way WRs flew off the board took me by surprise in ½ point PPR scoring…..especially in this contest format. Etienne and Pacheco are the poster children of RBs I think should be prioritized in this format – clear lead RBs on offenses that could/should score a lot of points. It wouldn’t be shocking for both of these RBs to score 12-15 TDs this season and I love the start of this roster.
Picks 6.12 and 7.01 – Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL and Brian Thomas, WR, JAX – I took Pitts here because I expected there to be a big tier drop at TE by the next time it comes back to me. In this format with two fewer rounds, it is not as easy to stack up 3 or 4 TEs on a roster and get there through accumulation and a little luck. I think getting a top-10 TE is critical in this format. I took Thomas with my other pick because I didn’t want to ignore my wide receiver room for too long and the story this roster is starting to tell is one of the Jacksonville offense humming in 2024. Thomas is a physical specimen and is great after the catch. He was an elite TD scorer in college and his skill set fits this format and roster well.
Picks 8.12 and 9.01 – Zack Moss, RB, CIN and Jordan Love, QB, GB – Both of these players fit narratives I discussed earlier. Moss is a projected lead back on a very good offense, just like Pacheco and Etienne. Meanwhile, the thinking behind taking Love is very similar to the thinking behind taking Pitts. Two less rounds in this draft, which makes getting a high-end season from your top option at QB more important. Love is a young player surrounded by weapons who was the QB5 in this format last season. Obviously it would feel a little better if I had some GB receivers to go with him, but as we’ve discussed at length this summer, the “Silo” can be filled and fit the roster well for value even without locking up a stack.
