Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Wednesday, July 16th in the $20 Drafters MAIN EVENT Best Ball Championship, with $2.5 million prize pool, $500,000 to first place, and 140,014 as the maximum total entries ::
Picking from 2nd slot
Picks 1.02 — Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN — Great for this format due to his strong role and explosiveness. Not a lot of explanation necessary here.
Pick 2.11 and 3.02 — Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA and Tee Higgins, WR, CIN — Getting Jefferson is a somewhat easy click for me from the No. 2 spot, but once that pick is made we have to think about what it means for this roster and the season. Ja’Marr Chase and Jefferson are the two WRs with the highest chances of finishing the year as WR1 and both have a top-five WR floor if they stay healthy. So if we are telling the story of Jefferson being the WR1, what does that mean for Chase? For me, on a lot of rosters I try to build the rest of the team as if Chase misses significant time. Tyreek Hill is basically an auto-click for me at the 2/3 turn now, so that part was easy. Having Tee Higgins fall back to me at 3.02 keeps this story going, however. In my opinion, I now have a clear path to having three top-10 WR finishes and the story for Jefferson WR1 and Tee as a top-10 WR are roughly the same – bad news for Chase.
Picks 4.11 and 5.02 — Xavier Worthy, WR, KC and Tetairoa McMillan, WR, CAR —
