Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Friday, July 4th in the $3 Drafters Mini NFL Best Ball Championship, with $125,000 prize pool, $25,000 to first place, and 46,140 total entries ::
Picking from 9th slot
Picks 1.09 — Nico Collins, WR, HOU — The board fell about as expected through the first eight picks and I view Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown very closely. Decided to take Collins here for no specific reason other than the feeling in that moment and that I generally try to mix things up between Nico and ARSB when having to decide between the two. I have also been leaning slightly more towards Nico between the two lately as I like the idea of “reaching” on Jameson Williams in the early fourth round as a “bet” against ARSB. Basically, if Williams emerges as a high-end WR this season then ARSB is likely going to take a step back from his production of the last three years. Also, if ARSB were to miss time due to injury then Williams would be a great value anywhere in the fourth round. Taking Collins opens up that game theory angle.
Pick 2.04 — Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC — This is where understanding the Drafters site and interface can help you a lot when drafting. On a desktop, if you go to “My Teams” >>> “Live”, then you will see a search bar. If you type any player’s name in that box and hit enter, it will show you only the teams that have that player on it. You can then click one by one and look at those rosters. Doing that for Collins, I could see that prior to this contest I had drafted him 19 times to that point across three contests ($2 Mini, $20 Main Event, and $3 Mini II). Across those 19 entries, I had rostered Ladd McConkey only once. I like both players, like loading up at WR early in drafts, and their ADPs are relatively similar. There’s no reason for me to *not* have them paired at a high rate, so checking on things like that from time to time can help me make sure I don’t let things fall through the cracks.
Picks 3.09 and 4.04 — Chase Brown, RB, CIN and DJ Moore, WR, CHI —
