JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
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Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
While it’s worth noting that Kyler Murray has played four games against the Rams and has totaled 13 carries for 46 yards (an average of 11.5 rushing yards per game), this game nevertheless tops the slate in terms of “game environments that could provide multiple tourney-winning scores.”
On the Arizona side, I’ll likely bet on the field overrating Kyler’s blowup potential in this difficult micro matchup, while nevertheless betting on the likelihood of this macro matchup helping one or two Arizona pass catchers reach elevated production. In addition to the upside of this game environment as a whole, you could make a case that all Arizona wide receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins are fundamentally underpriced if you believe Jalen Ramsey lowers the chances of Hopkins operating as an all-out alpha. Christian Kirk > Rondale Moore > A.J. Green is the order in which I would rank non-Hopkins Arizona wideouts, in terms of likelihood of hitting the sort of ceiling we would optimally want in tourneys.
On the Rams’ side, no one is off limits for me. There’s a scenario in which the Rams end up scoring most of their touchdowns on the ground (making Henderson an upside bet if he plays, and Michel an upside bet if Henderson misses), and there’s a scenario in which the Rams continue picking up most of their scoring through the air (making Stafford and all his pass catchers viable).
Speaking of ALL Stafford’s pass catchers ::
Kupp is obviously the king of this passing attack at this point; but as has been well documented on the site this week, Robert Woods is still very much involved, and is going to have some big games. Tyler Higbee has been locked into a short-area role, but this role does at least come with intentional, schemed usage, giving him paths to hitting. Finally, realize that while DeSean Jackson hit the big plays last week, Van Jefferson quietly played 50/65 snaps and saw six targets. If building more than one roster around this game, it’s advisable to bet on the different ways in which points could come together for this offense.
As explored in this week’s Angles Podcast :: this is a bit of a strange slate. There aren’t many mid-priced players with clear paths to 30+ points, making the 30+ point scores at the high end of the price range that much more valuable. That said: there are going to be plenty of high-end players who disappoint this week, making it that much more important to “get things right” when spending up.
Enter the Vikings.
The Vikings are playing at a high level and are in one of the more attractive game environments on the slate. Dalvin Cook (assuming he returns) is sure to see a slight ding to his ownership levels, as the DFS community tends to get a bit scared about playing a guy returning from injury; and Justin Jefferson has extraordinary amounts of upside each time he steps on the field. (Well…that’s not totally true. I don’t know Jefferson personally, so there may be times when he steps on the field in, like, the middle of the night, just because he likes football and wants to be on the field. He doesn’t have upside in those instances. But he has extraordinary amounts of upside each time he steps on the field to play an NFL game…)
Bring-backs: I expect to have a decent amount of Dalvin and Jefferson this week, and I’ll be looking to complete that play in spots with Odell Beckham and with consideration for Kareem Hunt.
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