Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single-entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the third slate.
Week 4 has seven games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
This game stands atop a slate of good game environments. It’s not head and shoulders above the other games as has been the case with the top game environment the previous two weeks, but it does stand out as the most likely game to create must-have DFS scores. Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) and Puka Nacua ($7,900) are obvious plays on rosters that want to attack this game. Taylor has posted DK scores of 36/32/13, and Puka posted scores of 26/28/26. If we were to redraft right now, Puka/Taylor might be the first two picks. Puka has the feel of a guy amid “one of those years” where he’s almost never going to fail. I’m going to play Puka by himself and as a part of any roster that stacks this game.
The Bears defense is terrible and their offense is explosive. That combination is going to make their game environments a target all year for DFS. Rome Odunze ($6,300) is still underpriced and will likely finish the season with his price consistently in the low $7,000 range. Caleb Williams ($5,800) is very affordable for his upside in a plus matchup. D’Andre Swift ($5,400) isn’t good at football, but he’s getting the opportunity, and that’s what we care about at running back. Jakobi Meyers ($5,400) is always underpriced for his target projection. Brock Bowers ($5,800) could post his first must-have game with Michael Mayer set to miss. There are a lot of cheap pieces with upside in this game.
This game has the most variance of any game on the slate. KC has not created good game environments for years and it has been my policy to generally avoid their games. It won’t shock me if this game ends up being the dud of the week. That being said, it’s difficult to ignore the upside outcomes. The Ravens are capable of scoring in bunches, and if they jump out to a lead, Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) will try and fight back. If this turns into a Lamar Jackson ($7,500) versus Mahomes gun slinger battle, it could end up being the game of the week. Even in that outcome, it’s not easy to stack, as neither QB has an obvious partner. I’m probably going to stack this game on one of might tighter builds to account for its upside, but I’m still considering fading it as I’ve typically done with Chiefs games.
Brock Purdy ($6,100) is set to return, which boosts this game environment. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is finally priced closer to his actual value. His WR1-type target volume makes it difficult for him to fail. Realistically, he should be priced over $9,000, but at least now it’s close. Brian Thomas ($6,100) is seeing plenty of usage but he hasn’t looked right, and none of his targets have turned into fantasy production. He could snap out of it on a moment’s notice, and I still think he’s the best bring-back on rosters that stack the 49ers. This game doesn’t have the same upside as the games above it on this list, but CMC will be a staple play of my lineups, and I’ll likely dedicate one of might tighter builds to predicting this is the game of the week.
This game is all about the RBs. Omarion Hampton ($5,900) and Cam Skattebo ($5,500) are two of the best plays on the slate. For whatever reason, people hate playing opposing running backs on the same roster. I’m going to “stack” this game by using them together. I’ll also likely dedicate one lineup to a passing game stack. Justin Herbert ($6,300) is throwing the ball more than anyone. Ladd McConkey ($6,500), Quentin Johnston ($5,500), and Keenan Allen ($5,300) are all viable. Allen and Johnston have been eating, but Ladd’s time is coming. Malik Nabers ($7,000) gets his first game with Jaxson Dart ($4,500). It would make sense for Dart to try and establish a rapport with Nabers right away, as two young players who could be teammates for a long time. Nabers is the obvious bring-back with any roster that stacks the Chargers passing attack.
A classic blowout spot, the Bills are big home favorites in a game where we know they will score, but if the Saints can’t fight back, they might not stay aggressive long enough to post big DFS scores. For their part, the Saints are going to try and keep things close. They play at warp speed and are a fun bad team. All bad teams should be the Saints. James Cook ($7,100) is the RB1 overall through the first three weeks and gets a good matchup, at home, as a massive favorite. I’m not sure why his price is still so reasonable. Cook will be a staple RB on my tighter builds. The Saints are going to be losing and creating passing game volume. Chris Olave ($5,100) is seeing heavy target volume but is still priced like a mid-range WR2. Juwan Johnson ($4,200) is in a similar boat to Olave. They both make confident bring-backs on rosters that stack Bills.
The Panthers looked like a totally different team last week, but I don’t think their defense is all of a sudden fixed. Drake Maye ($5,500) is good at football and remains one of the most underpriced players on a points per dollar basis. Hunter Henry ($4,000) is his most logical stacking partner along with TreVeyon Henderson ($5,200). Bryce Young ($4,900) is wildly affordable, and pairing him with Tetoria McMillan ($5,900) and Hunter Renfrow ($3,700) costs almost nothing. Either of the above stacks allows you to play anyone else you want on that roster, and both could hit for a high salary multiplier. I don’t feel confident this game will explode, but there is a good chance at least one of the cheap pieces will produce a strong price considered score.
