Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single-entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the third slate.
Week 3 has seven games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds. I think this is one of the most difficult weeks of picking games for DFS that I can remember. It’s rare for a 13-game slate to have 12 of those games with a total that falls between 41.5 and 46.5.
This game is far and away the most appealing on the slate. The total is a touchdown higher than most of the other games, and from a DFS standpoint, it’s easy to target. The Cowboys offense is concentrated between Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. Despite being a concentrated offense, with an excellent matchup against a Bears defense that just gave up 52 points, none of the Cowboys (other than Lamb) are particularly expensive. Even Dak Prescott is affordable. Add in that Rome Odunze is one of the most mispriced players on the slate, and the game stacks build themselves. It’s such a superior game environment to the rest of the options, I think it’s viable, and currently, my main lineup strategy is to over-stack this game. Right now, I’m playing with Dak + Williams + Lamb + Ferguson + Odunze game stacks. I’m not sure I’ll end up going that heavy on one game, but it’s a near lock that my primary stack will come from this game on my main lineup.
After the top game environment, things get unclear quickly. The Chargers are leading the league by a mile in pass rate over expectations (PROE), which has made everyone in their passing game viable. The Broncos have an excellent defense, but Justin Herbert is also good, and with no clear games to attack other than Dal/Chi, I’m willing to bet on the Chargers offense winning. If the Chargers can successfully throw, that will force the Broncos to respond with increased aggression. The last two times these teams met, they combined for 61 points, and I could see this game playing out in a similar competitive fashion. I’m going to stack this game from the Charger side. A Herbert double stack with Sutton coming back is the most likely way I’ll try and stack this one. This game could also turn into a defensive struggle in an important division game. The variance here is high.
I want to love this game for DFS but the objective data is putting up red flags. That’s because the Falcons have been a run-oriented defensive team to start the season. Bijan Robinson is a premier play, but outside of him, the rest of the game has question marks. The Falcons haven’t been throwing down the field, which limits Drake London’s ceiling. Even so, his price is generous enough that it’s hard to keep him off my rosters. I’m probably going to play London on at least one of my tighter builds and end up kicking myself for it on Monday. Kyle Pitts is finally seeing above average usage. The Panthers have been knocked around by TEs, and I’m leaning towards using Pitts on one of my tighter builds, possibly as a one-off. Tetairoa McMillan is also too cheap for his role and talent. He’s going to be a part of at least one of my tighter builds. I’m lying to myself and thinking I’m only going to use Robinson, London, Pitts, or Tet as one-offs on rosters that stack other games. The reality is that I’ll probably dedicate one of my tighter builds to stacking this game.
The Colts offense has been a revelation through the first two weeks of the season. Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Warren have all outperformed expectations. The Titans have been walloped (31st in DVOA) by the run and held up against the pass (13th in DVOA), which is likely to drive the Colts to the ground game. Taylor is a premier RB on the slate, but it’s hard to trust any of the passing game players in what might end up being a low volume affair. The Titans are yet to score 20 points in a game, and if they can’t fight back, this game becomes difficult to stack. Both teams’ primary pieces are cheap enough that I’m leaning towards using this game as a stack on one of my tighter builds, but it wouldn’t shock me if the only stat line you want at the end of the game comes from Taylor.
Speaking of games I want to love for DFS, this is a game that if it had been on the slate Week 1, I’d have almost certainly said I’d be playing game stacks. What’s changed? The Jacksonville offense has struggled to get Brian Thomas going (he is WR6 in usage and WR52 in fantasy points. A discrepancy that has cost some of us a lot of winnings in the first two weeks.) Despite seeing 19 targets to start the year, Thomas has done nothing with them and looked like he was afraid to get hit in Week 2. After the game, the team revealed that he had a mysterious wrist injury no one knew existed. I’m not sure what is going on with Thomas, but he doesn’t look like the same player we saw last year. It’s unlikely a date with Derek Stingley and the stout Texans defense is going to be the game he breaks through. Behind Thomas, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to contribute each week, especially when we can’t even be sure how many snaps Travis Hunter will see on offense. On the Texas side, Nico Collins could always break the slate, but the Texans O-line is so bad, it hurts the entire offense. There is enough talent on both sides of the ball to stack this game, which, heaven help me, will probably lead to me having this game stacked on one of my tighter builds. I must like pain.
The game I’m referring to in my head as “The battle of the bastards” is set to see two backup QBs square off after tough injuries to starters with high expectations. If the starting QBs were playing, this game would likely have one of the highest totals of the week and many players would be chalk. With both starting QBs out? This game has a low total, and everyone should draw light ownership. So, ask yourself, what if the backup QBs are good? We have a decent sample size with Carson Wentz as a starter. Enough to know that he’s capable of playing at an NFL level. In fact, he might even be an upgrade over what we’ve seen from J.J. McCarthy. Jake Browning filled in admirably as a rookie in 2023 for Joe Burrow. There is also a chance he has improved after several years in the league. Browning is probably more average than bad, and the market is currently reacting like he is not good at football. Game stacks aren’t going to be common from this game, but it’s on the fringes of making my tighter builds.
This game has a low total, but the Saints play at a blazing pace, which is always going to keep their game environment relevant for DFS. The other nice thing about this game is that the offenses are extremely concentrated. The Saints use Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara. No other skill position players get meaningful work. The Seahawks have been splitting their backfield (Zach Charbonnet might miss this game) and targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. These are two of the easiest offenses to predict where the ball is going, in a game that is going to have a lot of plays. The main thing holding this game environment back is how strong the Seahawks defense has been at the start of the season. The strength of the Seahawks defense, paired with the inefficiency of the Saints offense, makes this game a hard one to trust in using a full stack. However, this game is loaded with excellent one-off players. I don’t know if I’ll use a full game stack, but players from this game will be scattered across my tighter builds.
