Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the second slate.
Week 2 has seven games that piqued my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The DFS game of the week won’t sneak up on anyone with a total towering several points above the slate. When there is a clear top game environment, I usually like to overstack that game or stay away from it, depending on what I think the chances are of it being the game you needed to win. That means even if I think the game will just be “solid,” I’m usually going to be underweight players from that game. This is one of the weeks where I’m going to overstack the top game environment. The Bengals had a curious game plan last week. They threw at a below-average situational neutral rate, after leading the league in that category a season ago. They also ranked 2nd to last in WR usage for Week 1. The Bengals are built around their passing game, and I think we will see them revert to heavily targeting their WRs against the Jags. Chase Brown is also an excellent click after seeing nearly all the backfield work in Week 1. I will have at least one Milly Maker lineup that uses an onslaught of Burrow/Brown/Chase/Higgins. The Jags are also easy to target. Brian Thomas is in a prime bounce-back spot, and Travis Etienne is priced like Tank Bigsby still plays in Jacksonville. You can make a case for a cheap Brenton Strange, or take a flyer on Dyami Brown with Travis Hunter supposedly set to play more corner this week. I’m currently leaning into a Lawrence/Etienne/Thomas/Chase game stack for my main lineup, and even if that isn’t the exact combination I land on, my primary stack on my main lineup will come from this game.
This game has a middle-tier total, but its best outcomes could break the slate. It’s also an easy game to stack for DFS. Dak/Lamb/Pickens/Nabers game stacks are obvious, and if that ends up being the combination of the week, everyone will look back and think, “Well, that made sense.” One of the things that irks me the most is when I look back at the top lineup of the week and it’s an obviously foreseeable stack…that I didn’t play. This game has that type of feel to me, and I’m going to use the above game stack on one of my tighter builds. It’s also nice that because this game isn’t one of the higher totals on the slate, there won’t be a lot of people using a full game stack, which will make the lineup automatically more unique.
This game has the widest range of outcomes on the slate. Both teams were disappointing in Week 1, but both are stocked with talent. Either one or both, could put up 40 points without it being a huge surprise. The Lions looked terrible last week, but they were playing the Packers, who look like a buzzsaw this year. Stacking Jared Goff with two or three of his pass catchers is an easy way to start a build, followed by a bring back of whoever is your favorite Bear. I’ll use Rome Odunze as my main bring-back, but I’ll also consider D’Andre Swift, who didn’t play well last week but saw a massive backfield opportunity share. Touches are king at RB, and I’ll also consider using Swift as a one-off play to save salary. There is a strong chance I’ll have a full game stack of this one for one of my tighter lineups.
This game feels like it has trap potential after both teams looked explosive in their openers. Even though there are paths to the downside, this game still provides easy DFS targets on the Jets with the Justin Fields to Garret Wilson connection looking like it will be unpriced to start the year. Did Keon Coleman break out? If you think he’s now the Bills clear WR1, he’s criminally underpriced in a matchup that is no worse than what he saw last week. If you think he was just a product of an explosive game environment last week, then he has the potential to be disappointing at what is likely to be higher than usual ownership after his big game. I tend to think he is amid a breakout year, and I’m likely to have this game stacked with either Allen/Coleman or Fields/Wilson on a tighter build. I almost never play a QB naked, but either of these QBs are candidates to played alone because of their value relative to price and rushing upside.
This is a game between two teams who looked bad on offense in Week 1. If you go on X, you might believe the Dolphins will never score another touchdown. On defense, their secondary was Storm Duck and the boys. Now their leader (who wasn’t good himself), Storm, is hurt. The Dolphins secondary is easily the worst in the league, so if their offense can find its footing, they have the makings of a shootout team. Speaking of facing the worst secondary in the league, everyone’s favorite preseason QB Drake Maye is priced like a punt this week. I’m not sure if I’ll use a game stack here on one of my tighter builds, but it is certainly on the fringe of making the cut.
This game hinges on how you feel about the Browns passing game. If you think it finds success, I’d recommend stacking this game from either side (especially the Ravens with Browns bring backs). I’m leaning towards an outcome where the Ravens win easily. That assessment will steer me towards Derrick Henry and the Ravens D as a correlated pairing on one of my tighter builds. I’ll leave the game stacks for Milly Maker only lineups, but will certainly use at least one or two of those game stacks that play out the idea of the Browns fighting back.
This game has a low total, but Saints offensive coordinator Kellen Moore plays at a frantic pace. The Saints are going to create play volume this season, and their target distribution looks highly concentrated between Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara. The 49ers are set to be led by Mac Jones, but he is one of the more competent backup QBs in the league. Their offense has been reduced to Christian McCaffrey and Rickey Pearsall. Even though this game isn’t projected to light up the scoreboard, high play volume combined with concentrated usage checks a lot of boxes for DFS. I don’t see myself fully stacking this game, but it has excellent one-off candidates.
All the Browns pass catchers are values relative to their projected target volume. You can make a case for any of them as strong value plays, but Fannin is the cheapest and most egregiously underpriced. Fannin was used all over the formation in Week 1, including a snap as a Wildcat QB. He saw schemed touches and that kind of usage is often sticky week over week. Priced like a punt, with a realistic target projection of 5-7, Fannin is unlikely to kill you, and if he finds the end zone could be the free square you need to unlock other plays. I’m not going to overthink Fannin this week.
Boutte led Patriots WRs in usage Week 1 and now gets matched up against the worst secondary in the league. One of the Patriots WRs is going to have a good game. I’ll take a swing on Boutte but would understand if you want to bet on this being the game Stephon Diggs establishes himself. Everyone’s favorite preseason QB is dirt cheap against the weakest secondary in the league. Maye didn’t look good in Week 1, but he still put up 17 fantasy points, which at his price, isn’t a disaster. If he can take a step forward and become the QB everyone saw at the end of last year, he looks like one of the best shots to score over 4X his salary this week. The Maye/Boutte stack is cheap enough that the rest of the lineup can go in any direction.
Olave is coming off a 12-target game where he looked like the alpha WR on a team that is going to throw the ball a ton. He’s priced below $5,000, which makes him an obvious value as one of the cheapest players it’s possible to realistically project for double digit targets. Better yet, people will be scared away by the low total. Totals impact WRs’ fantasy scores the least of all the positions, and the Saints are going to create play volume. Olave is set to be the beneficiary.
Rome saw nine targets in Week 1 and is priced like a punt in a game that has the potential to be the highest scoring on the slate. He’s an easy bring back with Lions stacks and makes sense to include on rosters that stack this game from the Bears side. Ben Johnson doesn’t want to lay an egg in his return to Detroit. Johnson is going to involve Odunze early and often. I’m going to use him before his price increases.
Etienne is priced like he’s still in a timeshare. Bhayshul Tuten will get some touches, but Etienne looked great in Week 1 and is going to be the clear lead back in the best game environment of the week. I’m surprised Etienne hasn’t gotten more steam this week, but ownership projections are calling for moderate usage. I’m going to be overweight on Etienne.
