Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 18 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The Jags have been lighting up the scoreboard down the stretch. They’ve led the league in points since their Week 8 bye, and it looks like Liam Coen’s offense has fully taken hold. The Jags should be a DFS target every week, but part of my personal strategy for Week 18 is to focus on teams that need to win. The Jags need this game to secure their division and are playing at home. They’re massive (-13.5) favorites and have been playing with a “we will hang 50 on you if we can” mentality. There really isn’t a bad fantasy play among the Jags primary offensive pieces. You can justify all of them in double or triple stacks, and I don’t think you need to include a Titan. If you are looking for a Titan, Elic Ayomanor or Chimere Dike are your options. You could also go with Chig Okonkwo or Gunnar Helm, if not using Brenton Strange in your Jags stacks. I’d use any of those Titans on a Jags game stack roster, but wouldn’t be interested in them on their own. My favorite way to stack this game is Trevor Lawrence + Jakobi Meyers + Parker Washington + Brenton Strange + Elic Ayomanor.
This is a meaningless game, but both teams should treat this like any other week. The Cowboys have personal motivation. Dak Prescott is playing to lead the league in passing yards. That heightens the chances that Cowboys will come out with a pass first game plan. When the Cowboys pass, we know where it’s going. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens soak up nearly all the targets, and that makes them easy stacking choices. The Giants have also been frisky lately with the return of Jaxson Dart. Dart profiles as one of the best values on the slate, making this game stackable from either side. Wan’Dale Robinson became a real boy this season, running routes that were previously reserved for Malik Nabers. Robinson now sees intermediate and downfield work but has retained his PPR scam underneath role. The combination is great for DFS, and Robinson’s price hasn’t caught up to his value. My favorite way to stack this game is Dak + Lamb + Pickens + Robinson. (Editor’s note: Wan’Dale Robinson has been ruled out)
This game has a lowish total, but it falls into the bucket of games I want to target because of the motivation difference between the teams. The Broncos couldn’t be more motivated. They need to win to secure the number one seed. A win would give them a bye week to recover, which means they have no reason to rest anyone towards the end of this game, even if they’re well ahead on the scoreboard. They are also at home. The Chargers have already said they are going to rest their starters. That means we have one side with everything to play for, in front of a stadium ready to celebrate a great season, against a team that would rather forfeit and go home. That type of Week 18 game often ends with the side that is trying to win dominating by more than the market expects. The Broncos might put up 35 points in the first half, and even in a 35-0 game script, would probably still play their starters into the third quarter. That’s a worst-case scenario for game script, and if the Chargers backups show any signs of life, the Broncos could keep using their starters for the entire game. My favorite way to stack this game is Nix + Harvey + Sutton + Broncos D. I’d rather build for a Broncos smash that ignores a bring back.
This would be my favorite game environment if the Rams try to win. Sean McVay has said they’re going to play hard, but realistically, their motivation hinges on the result of the NFC showdown on Saturday. If the 49ers win, the Rams automatically become the sixth seed. If the Seahawks win, the Rams can become the fifth seed with a win. That might not seem like much, but this year, being the fifth seed means a first round matchup with the winner of the NFC South. That’s a big advantage, since the NFC South’s winner is clearly the weakest team that will make the playoffs. If the Seahawks win on Sunday, I’ll be highly interested in stacking this game from both sides, particularly in builds that start with Jacoby Brissett. If the 49ers win, I’ll still have interest in Brissett, Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride, but I won’t play Rams, no matter what McVay says going into the game. My favorite way to stack this game, if it matters to the Rams, is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + Williams.
