Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 17 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The game of the week. This is one that a lot of people had circled from the start of the year when drafting Best Ball teams. Both of my teams that made the finals have players from this game (Tee Higgins is 2% owned. One time!) Things have only gotten juicier after the Cardinals defense, which was already sub-par, was decimated by injuries last week. They lost three defensive starters, and they were already a unit to target. Things couldn’t be any different for the Bengals offense. After being injured all season, they finally have their full complement of weapons available. This game has a monster total (53) and has all the ingredients for a shootout. Everyone in this game is expected to be popular. Ja’Marr Chase is predicted to draw massive (45%) ownership, and Tee Higgins, who should be the least owned of the Bengals, will still be on plenty of rosters (12%). It’s difficult to pay up at TE, but plenty of people (16%) are predicted to get up to Trey McBride. Chase Brown (20%) will also be chalk. There is no way to be sneaky in this game, and my favorite stack won’t be subtle. I’m going to try and play Burrow + Chase + Higgins + McBride on my main lineup, and I’ll cram in Brown too if possible. The best way to stack this game is to over-stack and hope to create uniqueness by having more players from this game than the average roster.
The second game with a clear path to upside, this game is also going to produce a ton of chalk. Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater and is still reasonably priced. All his WRs feel unpriced, and Etienne is still reasonable. Much like the Bengals, none of the Jaguars primary offensive pieces are expected to be rostered less than 20%, other than Brian Thomas, who is still going to draw 10% ownership. Where this game differs from the AZ / CIN game environment is that it’s difficult to play any of the Colts. Phillip Rivers is doing an admirable job, but it’s hard to see him caring about a meaningless game for a team he just joined. It’s clear that his arm doesn’t have any downfield juice, a fact that a smart coach like Liam Coen will use to sit on the underneath routes. People are going to force a Colt onto rosters with the Jags, but I’m not sure that’s necessary. Josh Downs is only on the field as a slot WR, but his role matches the best with what Rivers is still capable of doing, and he saw nine targets last week. My favorite way to stack this game is T-Law + Thomas + Meyers + Downs, but I’ll also play lineups that just use only Jaguars.
Ownership is expected to be more moderate in this game than the first two mentioned, but it still is going to be relatively high. All the Patriots offense is projected to draw between 15-20% ownership. There is also a chance that TreVeyon Henderson will miss with a concussion. If he sits, Rhamondre Stevenson will instantly become the most popular RB after he played every snap last week once Henderson went down. Drake Maye is priced at the top of the slate, and it’s always hard to pay up for a QB in a projected blowout. That’s the rub for this game; will the Patriots hang 40 on the Jets because they can? Or, are they going to do just enough to win? The Patriots have been passing at a top-five rate over the past month, and the Jets pass defense is horrific. Those two elements make all the Patriots passing game pieces appealing. There is a chance that the Jets will fight back or score early (think the Jaguars game from a couple of weeks ago). This game comes down to how aggressive the Patriots coaching staff wants to be if they’re up multiple scores. I’m going to use Patriots, but I don’t see myself stacking this game. I’m likely to use their WRs are one off plays, and Stevenson if Henderson doesn’t play.
This is the first game that is appealing and could have low ownership. Josh Allen is the cheapest he has been all season and is expected to be 2% owned. That combination alone should pique interest. The reason he’s so cheap is that he doesn’t have a plus matchup. Allen always has massive upside, and he’s in play for large field contests. The Bills run defense has been knocked around (31st in DVOA) all season and the Eagles have looked better running the ball. Saquon Barkley is projected for moderate (10%) ownership, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see his actual ownership lower. There won’t be a lot of teams that play Allen without a stacking partner plus Barkley, but that might be the best way to capture this game’s points. My favorite way to stack this game is Allen + Cook + Barkley. Any lineup that uses most of its salary on those players is going to be highly unique.
