Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 16 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The game of the week, this spot isn’t going to sneak up on the field. Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf are both rightfully expected to be chalk. ARSB has at least a 32% target share in every game since Sam LaPorta went down. Joey Porter is likely to cover Jameson Williams, which furthers the chances ARSB sees increased target volume. It’s difficult to imagine a game script where ARSB doesn’t get double digit targets. Metcalf is the Steelers only NFL-level WR, and the Lions secondary has been burned repeatedly over the past month. Add that Lions offense is likely to force the Steelers out of their Arthur Smith shell, and Metcalf looks like one of the best values on the slate. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to be the highest owned RB on the slate, which means most of the week’s chalk is going to come from this game. I wanted to say the field was overlooking Kenneth Gainwell, but late-week ownership projections have him also coming in as chalk. He has played half the snaps the past month and has seen six or more targets in four out of five games. My favorite way to stack this game is Rodgers + Gainwell + Metcalf + ARSB, but any combination of players feels fine. I’m also going to leave this game alone on at least one of my tighter builds, purely because if it bricks, it’s going to kill a massive percentage of the field.
One of the most important real-life games of the week, this game has the number one seed in the AFC implications. The league has been treating the Jags defense like a pass funnel, and there is a good chance we will see a pass-first game plan from Sean Payton. Bo Nix is projected for under 10% ownership, and while Courtland Sutton looks to be more popular, he’s still well below the guys mentioned from the Pit/Det game. RJ Harvey has a tough matchup, but he can be paired with Nix in game stacks due to his passing game role. The Jags offense has a tough matchup, but the Broncos defense has benefitted from an easy schedule, and Liam Coen has the Jags offense humming. Travis Etienne’s price has risen, but he’s still playable. Brian Thomas is set for a date with Patrick Surtain, and Coen naturally wants to target the middle of the field anyway; it’s easy to predict a spike week in targets for Jakobi Meyers. My favorite way to stack this game is Nix + Harvey + Sutton + Meyers.
This game was close to being my favorite of the week. What ruined things? Marvin Harrison and Drake London both look like they’re going to play. Michael Wilson and Kyle Pitts have been monsters when Harrison and London sit, but when those two play, they turn back into mortal men. They are both priced based on their recent production, which makes paying for them hard to swallow, but everyone has that same thought, and there is still a chance they see heavy usage. I don’t hate the idea of stacking this game with Wilson + Pitts, both of whom will see below 5% ownership. Michael Carter is set to lead the Cardinals backfield and can be included in stacks. My favorite way to stack this game is Brissett + Carter + Harrison + London, but I do think there is an angle of playing Brissett + Carter + Wilson + Pitts that could win someone a lot of money.
This is the game I think has the sneakiest shootout potential. It has a healthy 45.5 total and is expected to be competitive with the Panthers installed as slight (+3) home dogs. These teams play each other twice in the last three games, and it will determine who wins the division. Bryce Young doesn’t always look like he belongs in the NFL, but when he does, he looks like he should be in the Hall of Fame. He’s shown the ability to post a spike week, and everyone throws against the Bucs. A Panthers passing game stack is cheap (even with Tetairoa McMillan), and everyone is expected to be lightly owned. Mike Evans being back to full health also adds juice to the game environment. My favorite way to stack this game is Young + Tet + Coker + Evans.
