Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 13 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
This game is my favorite game environment of the week. It pairs two teams that have been leaning on the pass and have targetable pieces for DFS. The Cardinals are a different offense with Jacoby Brissett under center. They’ve been a top five team in PROE since he took over and there is no reason to think a matchup against the pass funnel Bucs would cause them to change. Add in all their injury woes at RB, and this looks like another high passing volume game. Baker Mayfield is clearly playing hurt, and his health is the only thing preventing this game from having a total of five points higher. It’s been ugly the past two weeks, but those games also came on the road against the Bills and Rams, two defenses that are hardly pushovers. The Cardinals haven’t been great on defense, and the Bucs are going to need to score to keep up with the red birds emerging offense. Who knew all the Cards needed to do was get rid of Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison. My favorite way to play this game is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + Egbuka. That’s not cheap, and you can switch Tez Johnson for Egbuka to save salary if you’re finding it difficult to make that stack work.
It’s rare that I’d have a game involving the Texans as one to target for DFS, but such is the state of this slate. The Texans have been excellent on defense and lackluster on offense. The return of C.J Stroud should help them offensively, but it’s not as if Stroud has been a world beater. This game hinges on whether the Colts can score against the Texans stout defense. If the Colts can score, the Texans will be forced into aggression. If the Colts fail on offense, the Texans have shown they are willing to play conservatively and try to win behind their defense. I see this game as an all-or-nothing spot. I’m going to dedicate one of might tighter builds to something like a Stroud + Collins + Thomas + Pierce stack. The Idea being that if this game takes off, it’ll really take off.
The Rams are going to score points here, but are the Panthers going to fight back? That’s the question you must ask yourself before dedicating a high portion of your salary to the Rams. Stafford looks like the league MVP, and there isn’t much of a reason to think the Panthers will hold down the Rams offense. The issue is that the pieces you’d want on the Rams (Stafford / Nacua // Adams // Williams) are all expensive. It’s hard to play all four in an onslaught because you essentially need to punt the rest of your roster. There is also a good chance that the Rams defense is going to limit the Panthers offense. The Rams have given up under 20 points in five of their last six games, with the lone exception being a road game against the 49ers that the Rams won easily. It’s hard to see the Panthers scoring over 20 points, and if that’s the case, the Rams will probably be content to win something like 28-10. That’s not the type of game environment that typically produces big DFS games. This game isn’t easy to target, but I’ll have a Stafford + Williams + Nacua + Tet stack on one of my tighter builds.
It’s not often you’ll see a low total (41.5) game included on my list of favorite game environments. This game isn’t projected to score a lot of points, but the Saints have been boosting play volume all season, and both sides have targetable pieces for DFS. The Dolphins are running their entire offense through two players, and the Saints only have a couple of viable pass catchers. De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave are all some of the best plays on the slate. With Alvin Kamara ruled out, Devin Neal is also an interesting value. The main question I’m asking myself is, do I want to play them in isolation or force them all onto the same team? There is a chance I end up with all three, with neither of their starting QBs as the foundation of my main lineup. My favorite way to stack this game is Tua + Waddle + Achane + Olave, which is surprisingly playable from a salary perspective.
