Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 12 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
This game is a potential blowout spot, which isn’t typically the game environment I want to target. The difference between this game and the NYJ/BAL game is that we know Dan Campbell never takes his foot off the gas. If the Lions can hang 50 on you, they’re going to hang 50 on you. This is a game where the Lions could score 50, and that makes all their offensive players extremely viable. I don’t think you need to play a Giant as a bring-back, since this isn’t a game environment that will rely on the Giants keeping up for the Lions to keep scoring. If you want to use a Giant, Wan’Dale Robinson is the obvious choice. Darius Slayton is also set to return, and with Jameis Winston confirmed to be under center for another week, I could see a lot of downfield passing. The obvious stack in this game is Goff + Gibbs + ARSB + Williams + Robinson or Slayton. That stack uses almost all your salary, and you’ll have to save at almost every other position (I’ve not been able to make this stack work with McBride), but it’s the stack that has the highest chance to break the slate. I’m leaning towards playing that group on my main lineup.
There was a lot of speculation that Joe Burrow was going to return for this game, but news broke that he is going to sit out one more contest. His absence (along with Ja’Marr Chase) hurts the entire game environment, but it doesn’t kill it, since Joe Flacco has been serviceable enough to keep games close. The Bengals defense has been historically bad this season. They can’t stop anyone, and the Patriots offense has been humming. If Rhamondre Stevenson was going to miss, TreVeyon Henderson would be turbo chalk. With Stevenson playing, people are shying away from Henderson, but there is a chance he still dominates the backfield touches after looking far better over the past few games than Stevenson has looked at any point this season. I’m going to use Henderson on my tighter builds. Hunter Henry also looks like a great play since the Bengals have been absolutely torched by TEs. Chase “every down” Brown is back to the role he had at the end of last season. It’s nearly impossible for him to fail with how much he’s on the field, and he’s one of the premier isolation plays on the slate. I’m probably not going to stack this game, but I’m going to have a lot of rosters that use one or two players.
Jacoby Brissett has turned around the Cardinals offense and exposed what an anchor Kyler Murray has been for years. The entire Cards passing game has exploded, even without Marvin Harrison, who it now looks like might have been unfairly labeled a draft disappointment based on Murray’s inability to get him the ball. The Jags offense hasn’t had Brian Thomas for most of the season, and Trevor Lawrence looks like a bust, but that hasn’t stopped them from consistently scoring points. They always find a way. The Cards defense is dealing with injuries, and even when healthy, it is not that strong. The Jags are going to score, and the Cards are going to fight back through the air. There is also a chance that Bam Knight ends up being one of the better values at RB on the slate with almost everyone else injured. I’m going to run back the Brissett + Wilson + McBride stack from last week, and I might also include Knight and one of Travis Etienne or Bhayshul Tuten.
This game has a wider range of outcomes than the three listed above, but if this game breaks to the upside, it could be the highest scoring game on the slate. The issue for DFS is that there is a lot of risk involved, as all the players are expensive, and there is a chance that even if it explodes on the scoreboard, that production ends up spread out. Jonathan Taylor has been the best RB in fantasy this side of Christian McCaffrey, but he has been priced up to a ridiculous level, and this isn’t an easy matchup. If I’m going to pay for Taylor at his current price, it would have to be a smash spot as a home favorite. If stacking this game, I’ll likely do it from the KC side with Mahomes + Rice + Kelce + Pittman or Pierce. It’s not my favorite game stack of the week, but it’ll probably make one of my tighter builds.
