Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 11 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
The Bears have been a shootout factory with their suspect defense and potent offense. They’re vulnerable to the pass (26th in DVOA) and the run (25th in DVOA), which has given their opponents the luxury of attacking in their preferred method. The Vikings are an adaptable offense, and everything they do should work. It doesn’t hurt that this game is being played in a dome. The Vikings players are all relatively affordable (even Jefferson is affordable by his standards) because they haven’t put up big scores recently. Their last five games have come against BAL // DET // LAC // PHL // CLE. That’s a difficult stretch, and the Bears defense doesn’t compare to their recent competition. I’m going to stack this game from both sides, with my favorite way to play it being McCarthy + Jefferson + Addison + Loveland.
This game produced 64 points in their first matchup, as the Steelers simply refused to cover Ja’Marr Chase. He had an absurd 23 targets, and while it’s not reasonable to expect that again, it is reasonable to assume the Bengals are going to throw the ball a ton. It’s amazing the way the league has agreed to let Joe “what is dead may never die” Flacco throw the ball 45 times a game at the end of his career. The Bengal defense can’t stop anyone, which means the Bengals must put up points. With Joe Burrow on the mend, this might be Joe Flacco’s last game as a starter. Expect him to go out with a bang. My favorite stack in this game is Flacco + Brown + Chase + Metcalf.
This is a division game between two good teams, which scares me, but they both have too much offensive firepower to ignore. I see this game as having a broader range of outcomes than the two games above it on this list, but if it breaks to the upside, it could be the game that produces the most slate-breaking scores. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been unstoppable, and so has Puka Nacua. Would it shock anyone if they both put up 35 + point games in a shootout? It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s worth building for the possibility that the two best fantasy WRs both go off in the same game. It’s expensive, but possible, because of the cheap options available at RB. My favorite way to play this game is Stafford + Williams + Puka + JSN.
Brock Purdy is set to return, and he should elevate the game environment. These are two of the most concentrated offenses in the league, especially now that Marvin Harrison is sidelined. Neither of these teams has been especially strong on defense, and Jacob Brissett has made all the Arizona pass catchers relevant. There are going to be a lot of popular players in this game, and for good reasons. I see this as a game environment bet, and if I’m going to play the popular pieces from this game, it’s going to be in a game stack. My favorite way to play this game is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + CMC.
