Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on the lineup building process while giving the OWS family an inside look at how I make my lineups. My typical pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the first slate.
The first step in creating lineups is picking which games to target. On a full slate, I’m typically going to stack five different games across my tighter builds. That can change depending on the week, but it takes a strong game environment for me to stack the same game in my tighter builds. Week One has seven games that pique my interest:
I like them in the above order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
My favorite game environment of the week. This game pairs two suspect defenses against two ascending offenses. It’s expected to be a competitive contest and has clearly targetable pieces for DFS. All the most desirable game environments have close totals, which could make it fly under the radar, reducing ownership. There is a good chance my main lineup’s primary stack will come from this game.
A close second place with the same logic used for Car // Jax. I suspect this game will draw the highest ownership of the week, which is the only thing that makes it my second favorite game.
The Bengals are going to score a lot of points this season, but their defense stinks, which will make their games a regular target. Bengals games will hinge on their opponent’s ability to keep up, and the Browns are projected to have the worst offense in the league. I’ll stack Bengals and look to use a Browns bring-back, but there is more risk here than in the top two game environments.
This game could explode or disappoint. The Dolphins profile as a shootout team because their secondary is awful, but the Colts passing game is one of the worst in the league. The Dolphins should be better than last year on offense, but they’re already dealing with backfield injuries, are on the road, and their offensive line might still be an abomination. This could be the game you need, or the one you had to fade.
This game has “pick the wrong players” risk. Points will be scored, but who is going to score them? Both offenses could be spread out, and nothing is more frustrating than stacking the right game with the wrong players. The Micah Parsons trade might scare people off this game, and if it looks like ownership will be low, I’ll get more interested in players from both sides. This game has upside, but also a clear downside, which puts it below the top three game environments in my rankings.
The lowest total game to make the list, this game features two of the most concentrated offenses on the slate. The 49ers have long provided predictable volume to their stars, and the Seahawks are thin at WR, which narrows their target distribution. This game might not produce as many points as the other games, but we have a better chance of knowing where they’re coming from for DFS.
This game has explosive upside, but much like the Cin // Cle game, the outcome will depend on the underdog’s ability to keep pace. The Commanders are touchdown favorites at home, and if they control this game, there is a good chance that no must-have DFS scores emerge from either side.
